Football · Brazil Serie B · 02/11, 22:00

Prediction: Athletic Club MG vs Ceara

Team pages: Athletic Club MG · Ceara

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.29Total

Athletic Club MG1.26

Ceara1.03

1X2

40% 30% 29%

Athletic Club MG Draw Ceara

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Athletic Club MG 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

WLWDDLLDDL

Ceara 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WLDWDWWLDL

Head-to-head

Athletic Club MG 0–1–0 Ceara (1 last)

Ceara0-0Athletic Club MG

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Athletic Club MG 1477 · Ceara 1505

	Athletic Club MG	Draw	Ceara
Our model	40%	31%	29%
Market	41%	30%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 2.29 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Athletic Club MG	Ceara
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.3	1.2 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.7	0.1 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	0/60/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 4.6	1.6 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.2	4.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.10

23.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.98

2 (+0.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 21.75

Under 22.05

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:37

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Pinn 2.39
X	3.10 → 3.10	Pinn 3.25 ★
2	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7% Pinnacle margin 5.5%

Time*	1	X	2
16:33 +4’	2.30	3.10	3.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:12 +11’	2.21	3.26	3.26
01:18 +13’	2.39▲	3.25▼	3.04▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Athletic Club MG 0–1–0 Ceara

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/07/26 Brazil Serie B	Ceara	0-0 HT 0-0	Athletic Club MG

Standings · Brazil Serie B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Gremio Novorizontino	35	18	10	7	62	30	64
2	EC Juventude	35	18	10	7	45	23	64
3	Vila Nova	35	18	8	9	50	36	62
4	Fortaleza	35	16	13	6	43	31	61
5	Criciuma	35	17	8	10	36	30	59
6	CRB	35	16	7	12	53	49	55
7	Sport Recife	35	14	12	9	47	38	54
8	Atletico GO	35	14	12	9	42	33	54
9	Goias	35	15	7	13	36	40	52
10	Operario PR	35	14	9	12	45	46	51
11	Sao Bernardo SP	35	13	10	12	49	39	49
12	Botafogo SP	35	13	8	14	40	38	47
13	Cuiaba	35	11	14	10	32	28	47
14	Athletic Club MG	35	10	14	11	40	40	44
15	Nautico	35	11	10	14	39	46	43
16	Ceara	35	11	10	14	37	44	43
17	Avai	35	10	7	18	33	45	37
18	Londrina	35	8	8	19	44	51	32
19	America MG	35	6	5	24	23	54	23
20	Ponte Preta	35	3	6	26	21	76	15

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Athletic Club MG	Ceara
Operario PR	0-1 L	2-2 D
Avai	0-0 D	1-0 W
Goias	1-2 L	0-2 L
Sport Recife	1-2 L	2-1 W
Fortaleza	2-2 D	1-1 D
Botafogo SP	1-1 D	0-1 L
EC Juventude	2-0 W	2-2 D
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 3 L	2 W 3 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Athletic Club MG

WLWDDLLDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Operario PR Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-1	10	6	L
18/10	Avai Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
14/10	Londrina Brazil Serie B	1-1	2-2	6	3	D
07/10	Goias Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-2	5	4	L
02/10	Sport Recife Brazil Serie B	1-2	1-2	8	4	L
27/09	Fortaleza Brazil Serie B	1-1	2-2	1	0	D
19/09	Botafogo SP Brazil Serie B	1-1	1-1	2	5	D
13/09	EC Juventude Brazil Serie B	0-0	2-0	3	5	W
09/09	Cuiaba Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-3	6	1	L
05/09	Vila Nova Brazil Serie B	3-0	5-0	2	5	W

Ceara

WLDWDWWLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/10	Goias Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-2	2	5	L
17/10	EC Juventude Brazil Serie B	0-0	2-2	6	5	D
13/10	Botafogo SP Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-1	4	3	L
09/10	Criciuma Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-0	5	4	W
03/10	Avai Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-0	6	5	W
26/09	Operario PR Brazil Serie B	0-1	2-2	5	4	D
19/09	Gremio Novorizontino Brazil Serie B	0-1	2-1	2	8	W
13/09	Fortaleza Brazil Serie B	0-1	1-1	4	4	D
10/09	Atletico GO Brazil Serie B	1-2	1-2	7	5	L
05/09	Sport Recife Brazil Serie B	0-0	2-1	9	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Athletic Club MG vs Ceara?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Athletic Club MG win (40%). Probabilities: Athletic Club MG 40%, draw 30%, Ceara 29%.

How many goals are expected in Athletic Club MG vs Ceara?

The model expects 2.29 goals (Athletic Club MG 1.26 · Ceara 1.03), with a 55% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Athletic Club MG vs Ceara?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.