Football · Brazil Serie B · 08/11, 20:00

Prediction: Athletic Club MG vs Atletico GO

Team pages: Athletic Club MG · Atletico GO

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.21Total

Athletic Club MG0.81

Atletico GO1.4

1X2

22% 28% 51%

Athletic Club MG Draw Atletico GO

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 56% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

0-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Athletic Club MG 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

LWDDLLDDLW

Atletico GO 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WWLWWLDDLD

Head-to-head

Athletic Club MG 0–2–1 Atletico GO (3 last)

Atletico GO0-0Athletic Club MG
Athletic Club MG1-1Atletico GO
Atletico GO4-2Athletic Club MG

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Athletic Club MG 1481 · Atletico GO 1508

	Athletic Club MG	Draw	Atletico GO
Our model	21%	30%	50%
Market	22%	26%	51%

Estimated total (ours) 2.21 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 13.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Athletic Club MG	Atletico GO
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.4	1.2 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.8	0.7 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/70/30%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 4.8	4.5 / 8.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.1	4.4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

14.20

X3.60

21.83

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.98

2 (-0.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.95

Under 2.51.85

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.25

Market movement

Match winner · 5 moves · last 03:34

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.80 → 4.20▲	Bet365 4.20
X	3.30 → 3.60▲	Pinn 3.65 ★
2	1.91 → 1.83▼	Bet365 1.83

See the full journey (5)

Bet365 margin 6.1% Pinnacle margin 6.3%

Time*	1	X	2
19:47 +3’	3.80	3.30	1.91
07:16 +6’	3.90▲	3.30	1.85▼
18:35 +1’	4.00▲	3.40▲	1.83▼
10:15 +8’	4.20▲	3.50▲	1.80▼
03:21 +13’	4.20	3.60▲	1.83▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
22:14 +19’	3.73	3.53	1.94
23:16 +4’	3.78▲	3.57▲	1.96▲
10:14 +6’	4.00▲	3.64▲	1.88▼
18:23 +13’	4.18▲	3.70▲	1.83▼
20:04 +31’	4.14▼	3.67▼	1.82▼
11:17 +27’	4.10▼	3.65▼	1.83▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Athletic Club MG 0–2–1 Atletico GO

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/07/26 Brazil Serie B	Atletico GO	0-0 HT 0-0	Athletic Club MG
05/08/25 Brazil Serie B	Athletic Club MG	1-1 HT 1-1	Atletico GO
08/04/25 Brazil Serie B	Atletico GO	4-2 HT 1-1	Athletic Club MG

Standings · Brazil Serie B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Gremio Novorizontino	36	19	10	7	64	31	67
2	EC Juventude	36	18	11	7	47	25	65
3	Vila Nova	36	18	9	9	52	38	63
4	Criciuma	36	18	8	10	38	30	62
5	Fortaleza	36	16	14	6	43	31	62
6	CRB	36	16	7	13	54	51	55
7	Goias	36	16	7	13	38	41	55
8	Sport Recife	36	14	13	9	48	39	55
9	Atletico GO	36	14	13	9	42	33	55
10	Sao Bernardo SP	36	14	10	12	51	40	52
11	Botafogo SP	37	14	9	14	45	39	51
12	Operario PR	36	14	9	13	46	48	51
13	Cuiaba	36	11	14	11	33	30	47
14	Athletic Club MG	36	11	14	11	42	41	47
15	Nautico	36	12	10	14	40	46	46
16	Ceara	36	11	10	15	38	46	43
17	Avai	36	10	7	19	33	46	37
18	Londrina	37	8	8	21	45	58	32
19	America MG	36	7	5	24	26	55	26
20	Ponte Preta	36	3	6	27	21	78	15

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Athletic Club MG	Atletico GO
Ceara	2-1 W	2-1 W
Goias	1-2 L	1-0 W
Sport Recife	1-2 L	1-1 D
Fortaleza	2-2 D	0-0 D
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Atletico GO (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Athletic Club MG

LWDDLLDDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/11	Ceara Brazil Serie B	1-1	2-1	4	3	W
24/10	Operario PR Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-1	10	6	L
18/10	Avai Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
14/10	Londrina Brazil Serie B	1-1	2-2	6	3	D
07/10	Goias Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-2	5	4	L
02/10	Sport Recife Brazil Serie B	1-2	1-2	8	4	L
27/09	Fortaleza Brazil Serie B	1-1	2-2	1	0	D
19/09	Botafogo SP Brazil Serie B	1-1	1-1	2	5	D
13/09	EC Juventude Brazil Serie B	0-0	2-0	3	5	W
09/09	Cuiaba Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-3	6	1	L

Atletico GO

WWLWWLDDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/11	Fortaleza Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-0	10	7	D
24/10	Gremio Novorizontino Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-1	7	7	L
17/10	Ponte Preta Brazil Serie B	0-1	1-1	18	7	D
11/10	Sport Recife Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-1	10	3	D
08/10	CRB Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-3	7	3	L
03/10	America MG Brazil Serie B	1-0	2-0	8	3	W
26/09	Goias Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-0	7	4	W
19/09	Sao Bernardo SP Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-1	10	2	L
13/09	Criciuma Brazil Serie B	2-0	4-0	3	6	W
10/09	Ceara Brazil Serie B	2-1	2-1	3	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Athletic Club MG vs Atletico GO?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Atletico GO win (51%). Probabilities: Athletic Club MG 22%, draw 28%, Atletico GO 51%.

How many goals are expected in Athletic Club MG vs Atletico GO?

The model expects 2.21 goals (Athletic Club MG 0.81 · Atletico GO 1.4), with a 56% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Athletic Club MG vs Atletico GO?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-1.