Football · Brazil Serie B · 11/11, 23:00

Prediction: Londrina vs Nautico

Team pages: Londrina · Nautico

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.81Total

Londrina1.86

Nautico0.95

1X2

57% 25% 18%

Londrina Draw Nautico

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Londrina 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

WLLLLDWLLL

Nautico 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

DLWDLLDLWL

Head-to-head

Londrina 4–2 Nautico (6 last)

Nautico2-1Londrina
Londrina0-2Nautico
Londrina3-2Nautico
Nautico1-2Londrina
Londrina2-0Nautico
Nautico1-2Londrina

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Londrina 1420 · Nautico 1449

	Londrina	Draw	Nautico
Our model	58%	25%	18%
Market	57%	25%	17%

Estimated total (ours) 2.81 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Londrina: 4-0-2.
High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Londrina	Nautico
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.9	0.8 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1.1	0.4 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/20/60%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5.4	2.7 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.1	4.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.60

X3.60

25.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)2.00

2 (+1)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.93

Under 2.51.88

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:31

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.60 → 1.60	Bet365 1.60
X	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 4.60 ★
2	5.25 → 5.25	Pinn 6.21

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.3% Pinnacle margin 6.9%

Time*	1	X	2
19:30 +1’	1.60	3.60	5.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
19:25 +6’	1.45	4.60	6.21

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Londrina 4–0–2 Nautico

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
23/07/26 Brazil Serie B	Nautico	2-1 HT 1-0	Londrina
10/08/25 Brazil Serie C	Londrina	0-2 HT 0-0	Nautico
24/08/24 Brazil Serie C	Londrina	3-2 HT 2-1	Nautico
23/07/22 Brazil Serie B	Nautico	1-2 HT 1-0	Londrina
10/04/22 Brazil Serie B	Londrina	2-0 HT 2-0	Nautico
22/09/21 Brazil Serie B	Nautico	1-2 HT 0-1	Londrina

Standings · Brazil Serie B

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Gremio Novorizontino	37	20	10	7	66	32	70
2	EC Juventude	37	19	11	7	49	26	68
3	Vila Nova	37	19	9	9	53	38	66
4	Criciuma	37	18	8	11	38	31	62
5	Fortaleza	37	16	14	7	44	33	62
6	CRB	37	17	7	13	57	51	58
7	Goias	36	16	7	13	38	41	55
8	Atletico GO	36	14	13	9	42	33	55
9	Sport Recife	37	14	13	10	50	42	55
10	Operario PR	37	15	9	13	49	50	54
11	Sao Bernardo SP	37	14	10	13	52	42	52
12	Botafogo SP	37	14	9	14	45	39	51
13	Cuiaba	37	11	14	12	34	32	47
14	Athletic Club MG	36	11	14	11	42	41	47
15	Nautico	37	12	10	15	40	49	46
16	Ceara	36	11	10	15	38	46	43
17	Avai	37	11	7	19	35	47	40
18	Londrina	37	8	8	21	45	58	32
19	America MG	36	7	5	24	26	55	26
20	Ponte Preta	36	3	6	27	21	78	15

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Londrina	Nautico
CRB	1-2 L	0-3 L
Cuiaba	1-0 W	0-3 L
Avai	1-2 L	1-0 W
Vila Nova	0-2 L	0-2 L
Fortaleza	1-2 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 4 L	1 W 1 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Londrina

WLLLLDWLLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/11	Botafogo SP Brazil Serie B	0-2	0-4	2	6	L
01/11	America MG Brazil Serie B	0-2	1-3	7	5	L
24/10	CRB Brazil Serie B	0-2	1-2	4	2	L
21/10	Cuiaba Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-0	2	1	W
14/10	Athletic Club MG Brazil Serie B	1-1	2-2	1	3	D
08/10	Avai Brazil Serie B	0-2	1-2	9	6	L
03/10	Criciuma Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-2	6	4	L
26/09	Vila Nova Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-2	5	3	L
20/09	Fortaleza Brazil Serie B	0-1	1-2	8	4	L
16/09	Ponte Preta Brazil Serie B	3-0	6-0	10	3	W

Nautico

DLWDLLDLWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	CRB Brazil Serie B	0-2	0-3	2	6	L
31/10	Avai Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-0	7	8	W
27/10	EC Juventude Brazil Serie B	0-2	0-4	3	6	L
20/10	Goias Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-0	8	2	D
11/10	Vila Nova Brazil Serie B	0-2	0-2	7	6	L
09/10	Gremio Novorizontino Brazil Serie B	0-2	0-2	3	5	L
03/10	Fortaleza Brazil Serie B	1-1	1-1	4	4	D
26/09	Sport Recife Brazil Serie B	1-0	3-1	11	2	W
22/09	Cuiaba Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-3	4	3	L
16/09	Operario PR Brazil Serie B	1-1	3-3	4	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Londrina vs Nautico?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Londrina win (57%). Probabilities: Londrina 57%, draw 25%, Nautico 18%.

How many goals are expected in Londrina vs Nautico?

The model expects 2.81 goals (Londrina 1.86 · Nautico 0.95), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Londrina vs Nautico?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.