Football · Brazil Serie B · 08/11, 23:15

Prediction: Goias vs Ponte Preta

Team pages: Goias · Ponte Preta

Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.15Total
Goias2.58
Ponte Preta0.58
1X2
83% 13% 5%
Goias Draw Ponte Preta
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 61% Not both to score 52%
Most likely score
2-0 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Goias 6-1-3 (W-D-L)
LWWLLWWDWW
Ponte Preta 1-2-7 (W-D-L)
LLWLLLLDDL
Head-to-head
Goias 2–3–1 Ponte Preta (6 last)
  • Ponte Preta1-2Goias
  • Ponte Preta1-1Goias
  • Goias3-0Ponte Preta
  • Goias2-2Ponte Preta
  • Ponte Preta2-1Goias
  • Goias2-2Ponte Preta
Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Goias 1551 · Ponte Preta 1418
GoiasDrawPonte Preta
Our model80%15%6%
Market85%11%4%
Estimated total (ours) 3.15 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

  • Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Goias (rating 1551 vs 1418).
  • H2H favours Goias: 2-3-1.
  • Cards-heavy: 10.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

GoiasPonte Preta
Goals for / against (FT)1.3 / 10.5 / 2.4
Goals for / against (HT)0.4 / 0.40.5 / 1.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)20/50/30%30/0/70%
Corners (HT / FT)2.3 / 61 / 2.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)4.7 / 05.5 / 0.5

Head-to-head (H2H) · Goias 2–3–1 Ponte Preta

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DateHomeScoreAway
18/07/26
Brazil Serie B
Ponte Preta1-2
HT 1-2
Goias
17/08/24
Brazil Serie B
Ponte Preta1-1
HT 0-1
Goias
28/04/24
Brazil Serie B
Goias3-0
HT 1-0
Ponte Preta
03/11/21
Brazil Serie B
Goias2-2
HT 0-2
Ponte Preta
24/07/21
Brazil Serie B
Ponte Preta2-1
HT 0-0
Goias
22/09/18
Brazil Serie B
Goias2-2
HT 1-2
Ponte Preta

Standings · Brazil Serie B

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#Team PWDL GFGAPts
1 Gremio Novorizontino 3619107 643167
2 EC Juventude 3618117 472565
3 Vila Nova 361899 523863
4 Criciuma 3618810 383062
5 Fortaleza 3616146 433162
6 CRB 3616713 545155
7 Goias 3616713 384155
8 Atletico GO 3614139 423355
9 Sport Recife 37141310 504255
10 Operario PR 3715913 495054
11 Sao Bernardo SP 36141012 514052
12 Botafogo SP 3714914 453951
13 Cuiaba 36111411 333047
14 Athletic Club MG 36111411 424147
15 Nautico 36121014 404646
16 Ceara 36111015 384643
17 Avai 3610719 334637
18 Londrina 378821 455832
19 America MG 367524 265526
20 Ponte Preta 363627 217815

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

OpponentGoiasPonte Preta
CRB 2-1 W 1-0 W
Gremio Novorizontino 0-3 L 1-5 L
Atletico GO 0-1 L 1-1 D
Botafogo SP 3-1 W 0-2 L
Record vs common 2 W 0 D 2 L 1 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Goias (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Goias

LWWLLWWDWW

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
03/11 CRB
Brazil Serie B
1-0 2-1 44 W
28/10 Ceara
Brazil Serie B
0-0 2-0 85 W
20/10 Nautico
Brazil Serie B
0-0 0-0 132 D
11/10 Operario PR
Brazil Serie B
2-0 2-0 02 W
07/10 Athletic Club MG
Brazil Serie B
0-0 2-1 54 W
02/10 Gremio Novorizontino
Brazil Serie B
0-1 0-3 24 L
26/09 Atletico GO
Brazil Serie B
0-1 0-1 64 L
20/09 Avai
Brazil Serie B
0-1 2-1 88 W
15/09 Botafogo SP
Brazil Serie B
1-1 3-1 77 W
11/09 Vila Nova
Brazil Serie B
0-0 0-2 77 L

Ponte Preta

LLWLLLLDDL

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
30/10 Criciuma
Brazil Serie B
0-1 0-2 310 L
24/10 Fortaleza
Brazil Serie B
2-1 2-2 45 D
17/10 Atletico GO
Brazil Serie B
1-0 1-1 17 D
13/10 Gremio Novorizontino
Brazil Serie B
1-3 1-5 38 L
07/10 EC Juventude
Brazil Serie B
0-1 0-2 47 L
03/10 Cuiaba
Brazil Serie B
0-1 0-2 07 L
30/09 Botafogo SP
Brazil Serie B
0-2 0-2 23 L
20/09 CRB
Brazil Serie B
1-0 1-0 36 W
16/09 Londrina
Brazil Serie B
0-3 0-6 03 L
11/09 Sport Recife
Brazil Serie B
0-2 0-2 34 L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Goias vs Ponte Preta?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Goias win (83%). Probabilities: Goias 83%, draw 13%, Ponte Preta 5%.

How many goals are expected in Goias vs Ponte Preta?

The model expects 3.15 goals (Goias 2.58 · Ponte Preta 0.58), with a 51% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Goias vs Ponte Preta?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.