Football · Australia Darwin Premier League · 18/07, 10:30
Prediction: Darwin Hearts vs Hellenic AC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.1Total
Darwin Hearts2.69
Hellenic AC1.41
1X2
Darwin Hearts
Draw
Hellenic AC
Markets
Under 4.5 goals 61%
Both teams to score 60%
Most likely score
2-1
Recent form · 10 last
Darwin Hearts
4-1-5 (W-D-L)
Hellenic AC
1-2-7 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Darwin Hearts
2–1–3
Hellenic AC
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Darwin Hearts 1508 · Hellenic AC 1415
| Darwin Hearts | Draw | Hellenic AC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 64% | 18% | 18% |
| Market | 64% | 18% | 18% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.1 goals · Bet365 line 4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 79%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Darwin Hearts (rating 1508 vs 1415).
- H2H favours Hellenic AC: 3-1-2.
- High corners: 11 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 4.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Darwin Hearts | Hellenic AC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 2.3 | 1.5 / 3.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.2 / 1.4 | 0.3 / 1.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/20/30% | 10/20/70% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 6 | 2.4 / 5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.7 / 0 | 1.8 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Darwin Hearts 2–1–3 Hellenic AC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/05/26 Australia Darwin Premier League | Hellenic AC | 2-3 HT 1-2 | Darwin Hearts |
| 09/08/25 Australia Darwin Premier League | Darwin Hearts | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Hellenic AC |
| 30/05/25 Australia Darwin Premier League | Hellenic AC | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Darwin Hearts |
| 15/04/25 Australia FFA Cup Qualifying | Hellenic AC | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Darwin Hearts |
| 28/03/25 Australia Darwin Premier League | Darwin Hearts | 1-3 HT 1-1 | Hellenic AC |
| 02/08/24 Australia Darwin Premier League | Darwin Hearts | 5-7 HT 2-4 | Hellenic AC |
Standings · Australia Darwin Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | University Azzurri FC | 15 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 59 | 14 | 40 |
| 2 | Port Darwin FC | 14 | 10 | 0 | 4 | 53 | 35 | 30 |
| 3 | Mindil Aces | 14 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 47 | 14 | 28 |
| 4 | Darwin Hearts | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 32 | 28 | 23 |
| 5 | Darwin Olympic | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 42 | 29 | 21 |
| 6 | Casuarina FC | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 29 | 32 | 17 |
| 7 | Palmerston Rovers FC | 14 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 23 | 58 | 13 |
| 8 | Hellenic AC | 14 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 20 | 43 | 9 |
| 9 | Garuda FC | 15 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 15 | 67 | 3 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Darwin Hearts | Hellenic AC |
|---|---|---|
| Darwin Olympic | 3-2 W | 2-2 D |
| Port Darwin FC | 3-1 W | 2-6 L |
| Casuarina FC | 2-0 W | 1-5 L |
| Mindil Aces | 0-4 L | 1-3 L |
| Palmerston Rovers FC | 3-4 L | 0-1 L |
| University Azzurri FC | 1-4 L | 1-5 L |
| Garuda FC | 1-1 D | 2-0 W |
| Record vs common | 3 W 1 D 3 L | 1 W 1 D 5 L |
Better against common opponents: Darwin Hearts (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Darwin Hearts
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06 | Darwin Olympic Australia Darwin Premier League |
3-1 | 3-2 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 25/06 | Port Darwin FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-1 | 3-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 21/06 | Casuarina FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 0 | W |
| 06/06 | Mindil Aces Australia Darwin Premier League |
0-3 | 0-4 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 31/05 | Palmerston Rovers FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-4 | 3-4 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 23/05 | University Azzurri FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-3 | 1-4 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 12/05 | Hellenic AC Australia Darwin Premier League |
2-1 | 3-2 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 10/05 | Garuda FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 02/05 | University Azzurri FC Australia Cup Qualifying |
1-0 | 1-3 | – | – | L |
| 25/04 | Darwin Olympic Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 9 | 2 | L |
Hellenic AC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07 | Mindil Aces Australia Darwin Premier League |
0-1 | 1-3 | 7 | 0 | L |
| 20/06 | Garuda FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 14/06 | University Azzurri FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
0-1 | 1-5 | 0 | 4 | L |
| 02/06 | Darwin Olympic Australia Darwin Premier League |
0-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 1 | D |
| 29/05 | Casuarina FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
0-3 | 1-5 | 8 | 0 | L |
| 24/05 | Port Darwin FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
0-1 | 2-6 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 16/05 | Mindil Aces Australia Darwin Premier League |
0-3 | 0-4 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 12/05 | Darwin Hearts Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-2 | 2-3 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 09/05 | Palmerston Rovers FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 0 | L |
| 23/04 | Garuda FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-2 | 4-4 | 6 | 4 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Darwin Hearts vs Hellenic AC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Darwin Hearts win (64%). Probabilities: Darwin Hearts 64%, draw 18%, Hellenic AC 18%.
How many goals are expected in Darwin Hearts vs Hellenic AC?
The model expects 4.1 goals (Darwin Hearts 2.69 · Hellenic AC 1.41), with a 51% chance of over 4 goals.
Will both teams score in Darwin Hearts vs Hellenic AC?
The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.