Football · Australia Darwin Premier League · 25/07, 10:30
Prediction: University Azzurri FC vs Casuarina FC
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Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.69Total
University Azzurri FC3.34
Casuarina FC1.34
1X2
University Azzurri FC
Draw
Casuarina FC
Markets
Under 4.5 goals 50%
Both teams to score 60%
Most likely score
3-1
Recent form · 10 last
University Azzurri FC
9-0-1 (W-D-L)
Casuarina FC
3-0-7 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
University Azzurri FC
5–1
Casuarina FC
(6 last)
- University Azzurri FC2-0Casuarina FC
- Casuarina FC2-4University Azzurri FC
- Casuarina FC0-1University Azzurri FC
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · University Azzurri FC 1612 · Casuarina FC 1440
| University Azzurri FC | Draw | Casuarina FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 75% | 14% | 11% |
| Market | 80% | 10% | 10% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.69 goals · Bet365 line 4.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 83%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours University Azzurri FC (rating 1612 vs 1440).
- H2H favours University Azzurri FC: 5-0-1.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| University Azzurri FC | Casuarina FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 4.3 / 1.1 | 2.2 / 2.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 2 / 0.6 | 0.9 / 1.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 80/10/10% | 20/10/70% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 4.4 | 1.6 / 2.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.3 / 0 | 1.9 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · University Azzurri FC 5–0–1 Casuarina FC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07/26 Australia Darwin Premier League | University Azzurri FC | 2-0 HT 2-0 | Casuarina FC |
| 15/05/26 Australia Darwin Premier League | Casuarina FC | 2-4 HT 1-2 | University Azzurri FC |
| 30/08/25 Australia Darwin Premier League | Casuarina FC | 0-1 HT 0-1 | University Azzurri FC |
| 21/06/25 Australia Darwin Premier League | University Azzurri FC | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Casuarina FC |
| 03/05/25 Australia Darwin Premier League | Casuarina FC | 0-2 HT 0-0 | University Azzurri FC |
| 30/08/24 Australia Darwin Premier League | Casuarina FC | 3-1 HT 3-1 | University Azzurri FC |
Standings · Australia Darwin Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | University Azzurri FC | 15 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 59 | 14 | 40 |
| 2 | Mindil Aces | 15 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 50 | 14 | 31 |
| 3 | Port Darwin FC | 14 | 10 | 0 | 4 | 53 | 35 | 30 |
| 4 | Darwin Hearts | 16 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 37 | 31 | 29 |
| 5 | Darwin Olympic | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 49 | 30 | 24 |
| 6 | Casuarina FC | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 29 | 35 | 17 |
| 7 | Palmerston Rovers FC | 16 | 4 | 1 | 11 | 25 | 67 | 13 |
| 8 | Hellenic AC | 16 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 23 | 46 | 12 |
| 9 | Garuda FC | 16 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 17 | 70 | 3 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | University Azzurri FC | Casuarina FC |
|---|---|---|
| Garuda FC | 10-0 W | 6-0 W |
| Mindil Aces | 3-2 W | 0-3 L |
| Hellenic AC | 5-1 W | 5-1 W |
| Palmerston Rovers FC | 6-1 W | 2-3 L |
| Darwin Olympic | 3-0 W | 2-4 L |
| Darwin Hearts | 4-1 W | 0-2 L |
| Port Darwin FC | 6-1 W | 1-5 L |
| Record vs common | 7 W 0 D 0 L | 2 W 0 D 5 L |
Better against common opponents: University Azzurri FC (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
University Azzurri FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/07 | Macarthur FC Australia Cup |
0-1 | 0-3 | 0 | 2 | L |
| 03/07 | Casuarina FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 0 | W |
| 26/06 | Garuda FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
4-0 | 10-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 19/06 | Mindil Aces Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-1 | 3-2 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 14/06 | Hellenic AC Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-0 | 5-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 06/06 | Palmerston Rovers FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
3-1 | 6-1 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 30/05 | Darwin Olympic Australia Darwin Premier League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 23/05 | Darwin Hearts Australia Darwin Premier League |
3-1 | 4-1 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 20/05 | Port Darwin FC Australia Cup Qualifying |
2-1 | 6-1 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 15/05 | Casuarina FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
2-1 | 4-2 | 8 | 2 | W |
Casuarina FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/07 | Mindil Aces Australia Darwin Premier League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 03/07 | University Azzurri FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
0-2 | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 27/06 | Palmerston Rovers FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-1 | 2-3 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 21/06 | Darwin Hearts Australia Darwin Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 05/06 | Garuda FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
2-0 | 6-0 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 29/05 | Hellenic AC Australia Darwin Premier League |
3-0 | 5-1 | 2 | 0 | W |
| 23/05 | Darwin Olympic Australia Darwin Premier League |
0-1 | 2-4 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 15/05 | University Azzurri FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-2 | 2-4 | 0 | 2 | L |
| 08/05 | Port Darwin FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-3 | 1-5 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 03/05 | Mindil Aces Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-2 | 4-3 | 4 | 1 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in University Azzurri FC vs Casuarina FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a University Azzurri FC win (78%). Probabilities: University Azzurri FC 78%, draw 12%, Casuarina FC 10%.
How many goals are expected in University Azzurri FC vs Casuarina FC?
The model expects 4.69 goals (University Azzurri FC 3.34 · Casuarina FC 1.34), with a 52% chance of under 4.75 goals.
Will both teams score in University Azzurri FC vs Casuarina FC?
The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.