Football · Australia Darwin Premier League · 25/07, 12:30
Prediction: Darwin Olympic vs Port Darwin FC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.5Total
Darwin Olympic2.45
Port Darwin FC2.05
1X2
Darwin Olympic
Draw
Port Darwin FC
Markets
Under 4.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 64%
Most likely score
2-2
Recent form · 10 last
Darwin Olympic
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Port Darwin FC
6-0-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Darwin Olympic
2–4
Port Darwin FC
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Darwin Olympic 1495 · Port Darwin FC 1535
| Darwin Olympic | Draw | Port Darwin FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 47% | 20% | 33% |
| Market | 47% | 21% | 33% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.5 goals · Bet365 line 4.25 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 82%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Port Darwin FC (rating 1495 vs 1535).
- H2H favours Port Darwin FC: 4-0-2.
- High corners: 11.9 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 5.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Darwin Olympic | Port Darwin FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 3.6 / 2.5 | 3.9 / 3.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 2.1 / 1.2 | 1.8 / 1.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/10/50% | 50/30/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.7 / 4.9 | 2.7 / 7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.6 / 0.1 | 2.5 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Darwin Olympic 2–0–4 Port Darwin FC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/07/26 Australia Darwin Premier League | Darwin Olympic | 3-4 HT 1-2 | Port Darwin FC |
| 16/05/26 Australia Darwin Premier League | Port Darwin FC | 6-1 HT 2-1 | Darwin Olympic |
| 02/04/26 Australia Cup Qualifying | Darwin Olympic | 2-4 HT 1-2 | Port Darwin FC |
| 26/07/25 Australia Darwin Premier League | Port Darwin FC | 1-3 HT 1-2 | Darwin Olympic |
| 24/05/25 Australia Darwin Premier League | Darwin Olympic | 2-4 HT 2-3 | Port Darwin FC |
| 22/03/25 Australia Darwin Premier League | Port Darwin FC | 1-2 HT 0-2 | Darwin Olympic |
Standings · Australia Darwin Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | University Azzurri FC | 15 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 59 | 14 | 40 |
| 2 | Mindil Aces | 15 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 50 | 14 | 31 |
| 3 | Port Darwin FC | 14 | 10 | 0 | 4 | 53 | 35 | 30 |
| 4 | Darwin Hearts | 15 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 34 | 29 | 26 |
| 5 | Darwin Olympic | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 49 | 30 | 24 |
| 6 | Casuarina FC | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 29 | 35 | 17 |
| 7 | Palmerston Rovers FC | 15 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 24 | 65 | 13 |
| 8 | Hellenic AC | 15 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 21 | 45 | 9 |
| 9 | Garuda FC | 15 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 15 | 67 | 3 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Darwin Olympic | Port Darwin FC |
|---|---|---|
| Palmerston Rovers FC | 7-1 W | 10-0 W |
| Darwin Hearts | 2-3 L | 1-3 L |
| Garuda FC | 9-1 W | 5-3 W |
| Hellenic AC | 2-2 D | 6-2 W |
| University Azzurri FC | 0-3 L | 1-6 L |
| Casuarina FC | 4-2 W | 5-1 W |
| Mindil Aces | 1-1 D | 0-8 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 2 D 2 L | 4 W 0 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Darwin Olympic (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Darwin Olympic
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/07 | Palmerston Rovers FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
6-1 | 7-1 | 11 | 5 | W |
| 02/07 | Port Darwin FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-2 | 3-4 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 28/06 | Darwin Hearts Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-3 | 2-3 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 12/06 | Garuda FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
5-1 | 9-1 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 02/06 | Hellenic AC Australia Darwin Premier League |
0-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 1 | D |
| 30/05 | University Azzurri FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
0-2 | 0-3 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 23/05 | Casuarina FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-0 | 4-2 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 16/05 | Port Darwin FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-2 | 1-6 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 09/05 | Mindil Aces Australia Darwin Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 1 | D |
| 01/05 | Palmerston Rovers FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
6-0 | 7-2 | 8 | 1 | W |
Port Darwin FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/07 | Darwin Olympic Australia Darwin Premier League |
2-1 | 4-3 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 25/06 | Darwin Hearts Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-1 | 1-3 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 20/06 | Palmerston Rovers FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
6-0 | 10-0 | 14 | 2 | W |
| 13/06 | Mindil Aces Australia Darwin Premier League |
0-4 | 0-8 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 30/05 | Garuda FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-1 | 5-3 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 24/05 | Hellenic AC Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-0 | 6-2 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 20/05 | University Azzurri FC Australia Cup Qualifying |
1-2 | 1-6 | 8 | 1 | L |
| 16/05 | Darwin Olympic Australia Darwin Premier League |
2-1 | 6-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 12/05 | University Azzurri FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-1 | 1-4 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 08/05 | Casuarina FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
3-1 | 5-1 | 7 | 2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Darwin Olympic vs Port Darwin FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Darwin Olympic win (47%). Probabilities: Darwin Olympic 47%, draw 20%, Port Darwin FC 33%.
How many goals are expected in Darwin Olympic vs Port Darwin FC?
The model expects 4.5 goals (Darwin Olympic 2.45 · Port Darwin FC 2.05), with a 52% chance of over 4.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Darwin Olympic vs Port Darwin FC?
The model gives a 64% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-2.