Football · Australia Darwin Premier League · 23/07, 11:00
Prediction: Hellenic AC vs Palmerston Rovers FC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.43Total
Hellenic AC2.61
Palmerston Rovers FC1.82
1X2
Hellenic AC
Draw
Palmerston Rovers FC
Markets
Under 4.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 63%
Most likely score
2-1
Recent form · 10 last
Hellenic AC
1-1-8 (W-D-L)
Palmerston Rovers FC
4-1-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Hellenic AC
0–1–1
Palmerston Rovers FC
(2 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Hellenic AC 1414 · Palmerston Rovers FC 1464
| Hellenic AC | Draw | Palmerston Rovers FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 54% | 20% | 26% |
| Market | 54% | 21% | 26% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.43 goals · Bet365 line 4.25 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 80%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Palmerston Rovers FC (rating 1414 vs 1464).
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Hellenic AC | Palmerston Rovers FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 3.1 | 1.7 / 4.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 1.2 | 1.1 / 2.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/20/70% | 30/30/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 4.7 | 2 / 4.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1.8 / 0.3 | 1.8 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Hellenic AC 0–1–1 Palmerston Rovers FC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/05/26 Australia Darwin Premier League | Palmerston Rovers FC | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Hellenic AC |
| 25/03/26 Australia Cup Qualifying | Hellenic AC | 2-2 HT 1-1 | Palmerston Rovers FC |
Standings · Australia Darwin Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | University Azzurri FC | 15 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 59 | 14 | 40 |
| 2 | Mindil Aces | 15 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 50 | 14 | 31 |
| 3 | Port Darwin FC | 14 | 10 | 0 | 4 | 53 | 35 | 30 |
| 4 | Darwin Hearts | 15 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 34 | 29 | 26 |
| 5 | Darwin Olympic | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 49 | 30 | 24 |
| 6 | Casuarina FC | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 29 | 35 | 17 |
| 7 | Palmerston Rovers FC | 15 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 24 | 65 | 13 |
| 8 | Hellenic AC | 15 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 21 | 45 | 9 |
| 9 | Garuda FC | 15 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 15 | 67 | 3 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Hellenic AC | Palmerston Rovers FC |
|---|---|---|
| Darwin Hearts | 1-2 L | 4-3 W |
| Mindil Aces | 1-3 L | 1-6 L |
| Garuda FC | 2-0 W | 2-2 D |
| University Azzurri FC | 1-5 L | 1-6 L |
| Darwin Olympic | 2-2 D | 1-7 L |
| Casuarina FC | 1-5 L | 3-2 W |
| Port Darwin FC | 2-6 L | 0-10 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 5 L | 2 W 1 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Hellenic AC (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Hellenic AC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07 | Darwin Hearts Australia Darwin Premier League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 03/07 | Mindil Aces Australia Darwin Premier League |
0-1 | 1-3 | 7 | 0 | L |
| 20/06 | Garuda FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 14/06 | University Azzurri FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
0-1 | 1-5 | 0 | 4 | L |
| 02/06 | Darwin Olympic Australia Darwin Premier League |
0-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 1 | D |
| 29/05 | Casuarina FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
0-3 | 1-5 | 8 | 0 | L |
| 24/05 | Port Darwin FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
0-1 | 2-6 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 16/05 | Mindil Aces Australia Darwin Premier League |
0-3 | 0-4 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 12/05 | Darwin Hearts Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-2 | 2-3 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 09/05 | Palmerston Rovers FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 0 | L |
Palmerston Rovers FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/07 | Darwin Olympic Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-6 | 1-7 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 02/07 | Garuda FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
2-0 | 2-2 | 9 | 2 | D |
| 27/06 | Casuarina FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-1 | 3-2 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 24/06 | Mindil Aces Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-0 | 1-6 | 8 | 1 | L |
| 20/06 | Port Darwin FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
0-6 | 0-10 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 06/06 | University Azzurri FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-3 | 1-6 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 31/05 | Darwin Hearts Australia Darwin Premier League |
4-1 | 4-3 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 17/05 | Garuda FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 09/05 | Hellenic AC Australia Darwin Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 01/05 | Darwin Olympic Australia Darwin Premier League |
0-6 | 2-7 | 4 | 1 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Hellenic AC vs Palmerston Rovers FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Hellenic AC win (54%). Probabilities: Hellenic AC 54%, draw 20%, Palmerston Rovers FC 26%.
How many goals are expected in Hellenic AC vs Palmerston Rovers FC?
The model expects 4.43 goals (Hellenic AC 2.61 · Palmerston Rovers FC 1.82), with a 50% chance of over 4.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Hellenic AC vs Palmerston Rovers FC?
The model gives a 63% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.