Football · Australia Darwin Premier League · 26/07, 08:30

Prediction: Palmerston Rovers FC vs Garuda FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.67Total

Palmerston Rovers FC2.82

Garuda FC1.85

1X2

57% 19% 24%

Palmerston Rovers FC Draw Garuda FC

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 64%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

Palmerston Rovers FC 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

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Garuda FC 0-2-8 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Palmerston Rovers FC 1–1–0 Garuda FC (2 last)

Palmerston Rovers FC2-2Garuda FC
Garuda FC1-2Palmerston Rovers FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Palmerston Rovers FC 1450 · Garuda FC 1388

	Palmerston Rovers FC	Draw	Garuda FC
Our model	58%	18%	24%
Market	57%	19%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 4.67 goals · Bet365 line 4.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 85%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Palmerston Rovers FC (rating 1450 vs 1388).

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Palmerston Rovers FC	Garuda FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 3.9	1 / 4.4
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 1.9	0.4 / 2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	0/30/70%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.5	0.7 / 2.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.9 / 0.2	2 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.57

X4.75

23.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.82

2 (+1)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 4.751.95

Under 4.751.85

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 5.45

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 13:30

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.44 → 1.57▲	Bet365 1.57
X	5.00 → 4.75▼	Bet365 4.75
2	4.50 → 3.80▼	Bet365 3.80

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11%

Time*	1	X	2
08:11 +7’	1.44	5.00	4.50
13:29 +2’	1.57▲	4.75▼	3.80▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Palmerston Rovers FC 1–1–0 Garuda FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/07/26 Australia Darwin Premier League	Palmerston Rovers FC	2-2 HT 2-0	Garuda FC
17/05/26 Australia Darwin Premier League	Garuda FC	1-2 HT 1-1	Palmerston Rovers FC

Standings · Australia Darwin Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	University Azzurri FC	15	13	1	1	59	14	40
2	Mindil Aces	15	10	1	4	50	14	31
3	Port Darwin FC	14	10	0	4	53	35	30
4	Darwin Hearts	16	9	2	5	37	31	29
5	Darwin Olympic	15	7	3	5	49	30	24
6	Casuarina FC	15	5	2	8	29	35	17
7	Palmerston Rovers FC	16	4	1	11	25	67	13
8	Hellenic AC	16	3	3	10	23	46	12
9	Garuda FC	16	0	3	13	17	70	3

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Palmerston Rovers FC	Garuda FC
Hellenic AC	1-2 L	0-2 L
Darwin Olympic	1-7 L	1-9 L
Casuarina FC	3-2 W	0-6 L
Mindil Aces	1-6 L	0-4 L
Port Darwin FC	0-10 L	3-5 L
University Azzurri FC	1-6 L	0-10 L
Darwin Hearts	4-3 W	2-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 5 L	0 W 0 D 7 L

Better against common opponents: Palmerston Rovers FC (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Palmerston Rovers FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/07	Hellenic AC Australia Darwin Premier League	0-1	1-2	2	3	L
17/07	Darwin Olympic Australia Darwin Premier League	1-6	1-7	1	5	L
02/07	Garuda FC Australia Darwin Premier League	2-0	2-2	9	2	D
27/06	Casuarina FC Australia Darwin Premier League	1-1	3-2	3	2	W
24/06	Mindil Aces Australia Darwin Premier League	1-0	1-6	8	1	L
20/06	Port Darwin FC Australia Darwin Premier League	0-6	0-10	2	2	L
06/06	University Azzurri FC Australia Darwin Premier League	1-3	1-6	4	2	L
31/05	Darwin Hearts Australia Darwin Premier League	4-1	4-3	5	1	W
17/05	Garuda FC Australia Darwin Premier League	1-1	2-1	6	3	W
09/05	Hellenic AC Australia Darwin Premier League	0-0	1-0	5	0	W

Garuda FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/07	Darwin Hearts Australia Darwin Premier League	0-1	2-3	5	0	L
02/07	Palmerston Rovers FC Australia Darwin Premier League	0-2	2-2	5	2	D
26/06	University Azzurri FC Australia Darwin Premier League	0-4	0-10	2	3	L
20/06	Hellenic AC Australia Darwin Premier League	0-1	0-2	3	1	L
12/06	Darwin Olympic Australia Darwin Premier League	1-5	1-9	2	1	L
05/06	Casuarina FC Australia Darwin Premier League	0-2	0-6	0	3	L
30/05	Port Darwin FC Australia Darwin Premier League	1-1	3-5	2	2	L
22/05	Mindil Aces Australia Darwin Premier League	0-2	0-4	3	2	L
17/05	Palmerston Rovers FC Australia Darwin Premier League	1-1	1-2	1	3	L
10/05	Darwin Hearts Australia Darwin Premier League	1-1	1-1	1	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Palmerston Rovers FC vs Garuda FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Palmerston Rovers FC win (57%). Probabilities: Palmerston Rovers FC 57%, draw 19%, Garuda FC 24%.

How many goals are expected in Palmerston Rovers FC vs Garuda FC?

The model expects 4.67 goals (Palmerston Rovers FC 2.82 · Garuda FC 1.85), with a 53% chance of under 4.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Palmerston Rovers FC vs Garuda FC?

The model gives a 64% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.