Football · Australia Darwin Premier League · 26/07, 10:30
Prediction: Hellenic AC vs Mindil Aces
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.37Total
Hellenic AC1.18
Mindil Aces3.18
1X2
Hellenic AC
Draw
Mindil Aces
Markets
Under 4.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 59%
Most likely score
1-3
Recent form · 10 last
Hellenic AC
2-1-7 (W-D-L)
Mindil Aces
7-1-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Hellenic AC
1–2–3
Mindil Aces
(6 last)
- Hellenic AC1-3Mindil Aces
- Mindil Aces4-0Hellenic AC
- Mindil Aces0-2Hellenic AC
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Hellenic AC 1427 · Mindil Aces 1584
| Hellenic AC | Draw | Mindil Aces | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 10% | 14% | 76% |
| Market | 7% | 11% | 82% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.37 goals · Bet365 line 4.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 76%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mindil Aces (rating 1427 vs 1584).
- H2H favours Mindil Aces: 3-2-1.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Hellenic AC | Mindil Aces | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 3.1 | 3.8 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 1.2 | 1.8 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/10/70% | 80/10/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.8 / 4.3 | 2.8 / 4.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2 / 0.4 | 1.6 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Hellenic AC 1–2–3 Mindil Aces
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07/26 Australia Darwin Premier League | Hellenic AC | 1-3 HT 0-1 | Mindil Aces |
| 16/05/26 Australia Darwin Premier League | Mindil Aces | 4-0 HT 3-0 | Hellenic AC |
| 19/07/25 Australia Darwin Premier League | Mindil Aces | 0-2 HT 0-2 | Hellenic AC |
| 17/05/25 Australia Darwin Premier League | Hellenic AC | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Mindil Aces |
| 29/04/25 Australia FFA Cup Qualifying | Mindil Aces | 2-2 HT 2-2 | Hellenic AC |
| 15/03/25 Australia Darwin Premier League | Mindil Aces | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Hellenic AC |
Standings · Australia Darwin Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | University Azzurri FC | 15 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 59 | 14 | 40 |
| 2 | Mindil Aces | 15 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 50 | 14 | 31 |
| 3 | Port Darwin FC | 14 | 10 | 0 | 4 | 53 | 35 | 30 |
| 4 | Darwin Hearts | 16 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 37 | 31 | 29 |
| 5 | Darwin Olympic | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 49 | 30 | 24 |
| 6 | Casuarina FC | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 29 | 35 | 17 |
| 7 | Palmerston Rovers FC | 16 | 4 | 1 | 11 | 25 | 67 | 13 |
| 8 | Hellenic AC | 16 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 23 | 46 | 12 |
| 9 | Garuda FC | 16 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 17 | 70 | 3 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Hellenic AC | Mindil Aces |
|---|---|---|
| Palmerston Rovers FC | 2-1 W | 6-1 W |
| Darwin Hearts | 1-2 L | 4-0 W |
| Garuda FC | 2-0 W | 4-0 W |
| University Azzurri FC | 1-5 L | 2-3 L |
| Darwin Olympic | 2-2 D | 1-1 D |
| Casuarina FC | 1-5 L | 3-0 W |
| Port Darwin FC | 2-6 L | 8-0 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 4 L | 5 W 1 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Mindil Aces (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Hellenic AC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/07 | Palmerston Rovers FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 18/07 | Darwin Hearts Australia Darwin Premier League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 03/07 | Mindil Aces Australia Darwin Premier League |
0-1 | 1-3 | 7 | 0 | L |
| 20/06 | Garuda FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 14/06 | University Azzurri FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
0-1 | 1-5 | 0 | 4 | L |
| 02/06 | Darwin Olympic Australia Darwin Premier League |
0-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 1 | D |
| 29/05 | Casuarina FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
0-3 | 1-5 | 8 | 0 | L |
| 24/05 | Port Darwin FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
0-1 | 2-6 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 16/05 | Mindil Aces Australia Darwin Premier League |
0-3 | 0-4 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 12/05 | Darwin Hearts Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-2 | 2-3 | 4 | 7 | L |
Mindil Aces
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/07 | Casuarina FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 03/07 | Hellenic AC Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-0 | 3-1 | 7 | 0 | W |
| 24/06 | Palmerston Rovers FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
0-1 | 6-1 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 19/06 | University Azzurri FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-1 | 2-3 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 13/06 | Port Darwin FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
4-0 | 8-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 06/06 | Darwin Hearts Australia Darwin Premier League |
3-0 | 4-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 22/05 | Garuda FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
2-0 | 4-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 16/05 | Hellenic AC Australia Darwin Premier League |
3-0 | 4-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 09/05 | Darwin Olympic Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 1 | D |
| 03/05 | Casuarina FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
2-1 | 3-4 | 3 | 1 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Hellenic AC vs Mindil Aces?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Mindil Aces win (79%). Probabilities: Hellenic AC 8%, draw 12%, Mindil Aces 79%.
How many goals are expected in Hellenic AC vs Mindil Aces?
The model expects 4.37 goals (Hellenic AC 1.18 · Mindil Aces 3.18), with a 50% chance of over 4.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Hellenic AC vs Mindil Aces?
The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-3.