Football · Australia Darwin Premier League · 23/07, 13:00
Prediction: Garuda FC vs Darwin Hearts
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.56Total
Garuda FC1.28
Darwin Hearts3.28
1X2
Garuda FC
Draw
Darwin Hearts
Markets
Under 4.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 60%
Most likely score
1-3
Recent form · 10 last
Garuda FC
0-2-8 (W-D-L)
Darwin Hearts
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Garuda FC
3–1–2
Darwin Hearts
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Garuda FC 1377 · Darwin Hearts 1532
| Garuda FC | Draw | Darwin Hearts | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 11% | 14% | 75% |
| Market | 5% | 7% | 88% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.56 goals · Bet365 line 5 · -0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 85%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Darwin Hearts (rating 1377 vs 1532).
- H2H favours Garuda FC: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 4.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Garuda FC | Darwin Hearts | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.9 / 4.5 | 1.9 / 2.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 2 | 1.2 / 1.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/30/70% | 50/20/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 0.6 / 2 | 1.8 / 5.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2 / 0 | 2.9 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Garuda FC 3–1–2 Darwin Hearts
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/05/26 Australia Darwin Premier League | Darwin Hearts | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Garuda FC |
| 25/07/25 Australia Darwin Premier League | Garuda FC | 0-3 HT 0-1 | Darwin Hearts |
| 23/05/25 Australia Darwin Premier League | Darwin Hearts | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Garuda FC |
| 21/03/25 Australia Darwin Premier League | Garuda FC | 3-1 HT 0-0 | Darwin Hearts |
| 26/07/24 Australia Darwin Premier League | Garuda FC | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Darwin Hearts |
| 12/07/24 Australia Darwin Premier League | Darwin Hearts | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Garuda FC |
Standings · Australia Darwin Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | University Azzurri FC | 15 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 59 | 14 | 40 |
| 2 | Mindil Aces | 15 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 50 | 14 | 31 |
| 3 | Port Darwin FC | 14 | 10 | 0 | 4 | 53 | 35 | 30 |
| 4 | Darwin Hearts | 15 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 34 | 29 | 26 |
| 5 | Darwin Olympic | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 49 | 30 | 24 |
| 6 | Casuarina FC | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 29 | 35 | 17 |
| 7 | Palmerston Rovers FC | 15 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 24 | 65 | 13 |
| 8 | Hellenic AC | 15 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 21 | 45 | 9 |
| 9 | Garuda FC | 15 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 15 | 67 | 3 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Garuda FC | Darwin Hearts |
|---|---|---|
| Palmerston Rovers FC | 2-2 D | 3-4 L |
| University Azzurri FC | 0-10 L | 1-4 L |
| Hellenic AC | 0-2 L | 2-1 W |
| Darwin Olympic | 1-9 L | 3-2 W |
| Casuarina FC | 0-6 L | 2-0 W |
| Port Darwin FC | 3-5 L | 3-1 W |
| Mindil Aces | 0-4 L | 0-4 L |
| Record vs common | 0 W 1 D 6 L | 4 W 0 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Darwin Hearts (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Garuda FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/07 | Palmerston Rovers FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
0-2 | 2-2 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 26/06 | University Azzurri FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
0-4 | 0-10 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 20/06 | Hellenic AC Australia Darwin Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 12/06 | Darwin Olympic Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-5 | 1-9 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 05/06 | Casuarina FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
0-2 | 0-6 | 0 | 3 | L |
| 30/05 | Port Darwin FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-1 | 3-5 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 22/05 | Mindil Aces Australia Darwin Premier League |
0-2 | 0-4 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 17/05 | Palmerston Rovers FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 10/05 | Darwin Hearts Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 3 | D |
| 26/04 | University Azzurri FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
0-1 | 1-4 | 1 | 0 | L |
Darwin Hearts
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07 | Hellenic AC Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 6 | W |
| 28/06 | Darwin Olympic Australia Darwin Premier League |
3-1 | 3-2 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 25/06 | Port Darwin FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-1 | 3-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 21/06 | Casuarina FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 0 | W |
| 06/06 | Mindil Aces Australia Darwin Premier League |
0-3 | 0-4 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 31/05 | Palmerston Rovers FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-4 | 3-4 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 23/05 | University Azzurri FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-3 | 1-4 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 12/05 | Hellenic AC Australia Darwin Premier League |
2-1 | 3-2 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 10/05 | Garuda FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 02/05 | University Azzurri FC Australia Cup Qualifying |
1-0 | 1-3 | – | – | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Garuda FC vs Darwin Hearts?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Darwin Hearts win (82%). Probabilities: Garuda FC 8%, draw 10%, Darwin Hearts 82%.
How many goals are expected in Garuda FC vs Darwin Hearts?
The model expects 4.56 goals (Garuda FC 1.28 · Darwin Hearts 3.28), with a 57% chance of under 5 goals.
Will both teams score in Garuda FC vs Darwin Hearts?
The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-3.