Football · Australia Darwin Premier League · 19/07, 10:30
Prediction: Casuarina FC vs Mindil Aces
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.43Total
Casuarina FC1.28
Mindil Aces3.14
1X2
Casuarina FC
Draw
Mindil Aces
Markets
Under 4.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 60%
Most likely score
1-3
Recent form · 10 last
Casuarina FC
4-0-6 (W-D-L)
Mindil Aces
7-1-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Casuarina FC
1–5
Mindil Aces
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Casuarina FC 1459 · Mindil Aces 1588
| Casuarina FC | Draw | Mindil Aces | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 12% | 15% | 73% |
| Market | 13% | 13% | 74% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.43 goals · Bet365 line 4.25 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 81%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mindil Aces (rating 1459 vs 1588).
- H2H favours Mindil Aces: 5-0-1.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Casuarina FC | Mindil Aces | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.5 / 2.6 | 3.8 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 1.4 | 1.9 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/10/70% | 80/10/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.7 / 3.2 | 2.7 / 4.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2 / 0 | 1.4 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Casuarina FC 1–0–5 Mindil Aces
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/05/26 Australia Darwin Premier League | Mindil Aces | 3-4 HT 2-1 | Casuarina FC |
| 25/07/25 Australia Darwin Premier League | Casuarina FC | 1-3 HT 0-0 | Mindil Aces |
| 23/05/25 Australia Darwin Premier League | Mindil Aces | 3-1 HT 0-1 | Casuarina FC |
| 21/03/25 Australia Darwin Premier League | Casuarina FC | 2-3 HT 1-0 | Mindil Aces |
| 26/07/24 Australia Darwin Premier League | Casuarina FC | 2-5 HT 1-2 | Mindil Aces |
| 13/07/24 Australia Darwin Premier League | Mindil Aces | 4-3 HT 1-1 | Casuarina FC |
Standings · Australia Darwin Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | University Azzurri FC | 15 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 59 | 14 | 40 |
| 2 | Port Darwin FC | 14 | 10 | 0 | 4 | 53 | 35 | 30 |
| 3 | Mindil Aces | 14 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 47 | 14 | 28 |
| 4 | Darwin Hearts | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 32 | 28 | 23 |
| 5 | Darwin Olympic | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 42 | 29 | 21 |
| 6 | Casuarina FC | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 29 | 32 | 17 |
| 7 | Palmerston Rovers FC | 14 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 23 | 58 | 13 |
| 8 | Hellenic AC | 14 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 20 | 43 | 9 |
| 9 | Garuda FC | 15 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 15 | 67 | 3 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Casuarina FC | Mindil Aces |
|---|---|---|
| University Azzurri FC | 0-2 L | 2-3 L |
| Palmerston Rovers FC | 2-3 L | 6-1 W |
| Darwin Hearts | 0-2 L | 4-0 W |
| Garuda FC | 6-0 W | 4-0 W |
| Hellenic AC | 5-1 W | 3-1 W |
| Darwin Olympic | 2-4 L | 1-1 D |
| Port Darwin FC | 1-5 L | 8-0 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 5 L | 5 W 1 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Mindil Aces (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Casuarina FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07 | University Azzurri FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
0-2 | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 27/06 | Palmerston Rovers FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-1 | 2-3 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 21/06 | Darwin Hearts Australia Darwin Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 05/06 | Garuda FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
2-0 | 6-0 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 29/05 | Hellenic AC Australia Darwin Premier League |
3-0 | 5-1 | 2 | 0 | W |
| 23/05 | Darwin Olympic Australia Darwin Premier League |
0-1 | 2-4 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 15/05 | University Azzurri FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-2 | 2-4 | 0 | 2 | L |
| 08/05 | Port Darwin FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-3 | 1-5 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 03/05 | Mindil Aces Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-2 | 4-3 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 25/04 | Palmerston Rovers FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-2 | 3-2 | 6 | 5 | W |
Mindil Aces
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07 | Hellenic AC Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-0 | 3-1 | 7 | 0 | W |
| 24/06 | Palmerston Rovers FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
0-1 | 6-1 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 19/06 | University Azzurri FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-1 | 2-3 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 13/06 | Port Darwin FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
4-0 | 8-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 06/06 | Darwin Hearts Australia Darwin Premier League |
3-0 | 4-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 22/05 | Garuda FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
2-0 | 4-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 16/05 | Hellenic AC Australia Darwin Premier League |
3-0 | 4-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 09/05 | Darwin Olympic Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 1 | D |
| 03/05 | Casuarina FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
2-1 | 3-4 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 26/04 | Port Darwin FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
2-1 | 3-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Casuarina FC vs Mindil Aces?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Mindil Aces win (74%). Probabilities: Casuarina FC 12%, draw 14%, Mindil Aces 74%.
How many goals are expected in Casuarina FC vs Mindil Aces?
The model expects 4.43 goals (Casuarina FC 1.28 · Mindil Aces 3.14), with a 50% chance of over 4.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Casuarina FC vs Mindil Aces?
The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-3.