Football · Australia Darwin Premier League · 05/09, 10:30
Prediction: Port Darwin FC vs University Azzurri FC
Team pages: Port Darwin FC · University Azzurri FC
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Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.74Total
Port Darwin FC1.49
University Azzurri FC3.25
1X2
Port Darwin FC
Draw
University Azzurri FC
Markets
Over 4.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 62%
Most likely score
1-3 7%
Recent form · 10 last
Port Darwin FC
3-1-6 (W-D-L)
University Azzurri FC
9-1-0 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Port Darwin FC
0–2–4
University Azzurri FC
(6 last)
- University Azzurri FC7-1Port Darwin FC
- University Azzurri FC6-1Port Darwin FC
- Port Darwin FC1-4University Azzurri FC
- University Azzurri FC2-0Port Darwin FC
- Port Darwin FC0-0University Azzurri FC
- University Azzurri FC2-2Port Darwin FC
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Port Darwin FC 1444 · University Azzurri FC 1624
| Port Darwin FC | Draw | University Azzurri FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 14% | 15% | 71% |
| Market | 14% | 15% | 71% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.74 goals · Bet365 line 5 · -0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 80%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours University Azzurri FC (rating 1444 vs 1624).
- H2H favours University Azzurri FC: 4-2-0.
- High corners: 11.7 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 5.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Port Darwin FC | University Azzurri FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.2 / 2.9 | 5.2 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.1 / 1.1 | 2.2 / 0.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/30/40% | 100/0/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 4.7 | 3.8 / 7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.2 / 0.2 | 2.2 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Port Darwin FC 0–2–4 University Azzurri FC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/08/26 Australia Darwin Premier League | University Azzurri FC | 7-1 HT 2-0 | Port Darwin FC |
| 20/05/26 Australia Cup Qualifying | University Azzurri FC | 6-1 HT 2-1 | Port Darwin FC |
| 12/05/26 Australia Darwin Premier League | Port Darwin FC | 1-4 HT 1-1 | University Azzurri FC |
| 08/08/25 Australia Darwin Premier League | University Azzurri FC | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Port Darwin FC |
| 31/05/25 Australia Darwin Premier League | Port Darwin FC | 0-0 HT 0-0 | University Azzurri FC |
| 01/04/25 Australia FFA Cup Qualifying | University Azzurri FC | 2-2 HT 1-1 | Port Darwin FC |
Standings · Australia Darwin Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | University Azzurri FC | 23 | 20 | 2 | 1 | 99 | 22 | 62 |
| 2 | Mindil Aces | 22 | 15 | 2 | 5 | 79 | 22 | 47 |
| 3 | Darwin Olympic | 22 | 12 | 4 | 6 | 64 | 37 | 40 |
| 4 | Port Darwin FC | 22 | 12 | 1 | 9 | 70 | 58 | 37 |
| 5 | Darwin Hearts | 22 | 10 | 3 | 9 | 55 | 51 | 33 |
| 6 | Casuarina FC | 22 | 6 | 4 | 12 | 41 | 56 | 22 |
| 7 | Palmerston Rovers FC | 22 | 6 | 2 | 14 | 41 | 93 | 20 |
| 8 | Hellenic AC | 22 | 5 | 4 | 13 | 30 | 58 | 19 |
| 9 | Garuda FC | 23 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 23 | 105 | 7 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Port Darwin FC | University Azzurri FC |
|---|---|---|
| Casuarina FC | 5-2 W | 5-1 W |
| Mindil Aces | 2-4 L | 1-1 D |
| Palmerston Rovers FC | 1-2 L | 10-2 W |
| Hellenic AC | 0-2 L | 3-0 W |
| Garuda FC | 4-1 W | 7-0 W |
| Darwin Hearts | 4-4 D | 3-1 W |
| Darwin Olympic | 0-1 L | 4-2 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 4 L | 6 W 1 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: University Azzurri FC (7 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Port Darwin FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/09 | Casuarina FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
3-1 | 5-2 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 30/08 | Mindil Aces Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-2 | 2-4 | 9 | 3 | L |
| 26/08 | Palmerston Rovers FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
0-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 22/08 | Hellenic AC Australia Darwin Premier League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 19/08 | University Azzurri FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
0-2 | 1-7 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 09/08 | Garuda FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
3-0 | 4-1 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 31/07 | Darwin Hearts Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-2 | 4-4 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 25/07 | Darwin Olympic Australia Darwin Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 02/07 | Darwin Olympic Australia Darwin Premier League |
2-1 | 4-3 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 25/06 | Darwin Hearts Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-1 | 1-3 | 5 | 1 | L |
University Azzurri FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/08 | Garuda FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
2-0 | 7-0 | 8 | 1 | W |
| 27/08 | Mindil Aces Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 11 | 6 | D |
| 22/08 | Darwin Hearts Australia Darwin Premier League |
2-0 | 3-1 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 19/08 | Port Darwin FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
2-0 | 7-1 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 16/08 | Palmerston Rovers FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
5-0 | 10-2 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 08/08 | Darwin Olympic Australia Darwin Premier League |
2-1 | 4-2 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 01/08 | Hellenic AC Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 25/07 | Casuarina FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
1-0 | 5-1 | 10 | 2 | W |
| 03/07 | Casuarina FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 0 | W |
| 26/06 | Garuda FC Australia Darwin Premier League |
4-0 | 10-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Port Darwin FC vs University Azzurri FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is an University Azzurri FC win (71%). Probabilities: Port Darwin FC 14%, draw 15%, University Azzurri FC 71%.
How many goals are expected in Port Darwin FC vs University Azzurri FC?
The model expects 4.74 goals (Port Darwin FC 1.49 · University Azzurri FC 3.25), with a 55% chance of under 5 goals.
Will both teams score in Port Darwin FC vs University Azzurri FC?
The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-3.