Football · Australia Darwin Premier League · 05/09, 08:30

Prediction: Palmerston Rovers FC vs Darwin Olympic

Team pages: Palmerston Rovers FC · Darwin Olympic

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.59Total

Palmerston Rovers FC1.62

Darwin Olympic2.97

1X2

18% 17% 65%

Palmerston Rovers FC Draw Darwin Olympic

Markets

Over 4.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

1-2 7%

Recent form · 10 last

Palmerston Rovers FC 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WDLLWLLLWD

Darwin Olympic 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

LLWWDLWWWW

Head-to-head

Palmerston Rovers FC 0–2 Darwin Olympic (2 last)

Darwin Olympic7-1Palmerston Rovers FC
Palmerston Rovers FC2-7Darwin Olympic

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Palmerston Rovers FC 1446 · Darwin Olympic 1566

	Palmerston Rovers FC	Draw	Darwin Olympic
Our model	18%	17%	65%
Market	18%	17%	65%

Estimated total (ours) 4.59 goals · Bet365 line 4.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 86%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Darwin Olympic (rating 1446 vs 1566).
H2H favours Darwin Olympic: 2-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 5.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Palmerston Rovers FC	Darwin Olympic
Goals for / against (FT)	2.3 / 3.9	2.7 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 2	1.8 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/20/50%	60/10/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 3.4	2.3 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.3 / 0.3	3.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

15.00

X5.50

21.42

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.5)1.90

2 (-1.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 4.51.88

Under 4.51.93

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 5.2

Market movement

Match winner · 5 moves · last 02:49

	Bet365	Best now
1	11.00 → 5.00▼	Bet365 5.00
X	8.50 → 5.50▼	Bet365 5.50
2	1.13 → 1.42▲	Bet365 1.42

See the full journey (5)

Bet365 margin 8.6%

Time*	1	X	2
01:13 +10’	11.00	8.50	1.13
04:32 +9’	7.00▼	6.25▼	1.27▲
05:40 +9’	8.50▲	7.00▲	1.18▼
14:13 +9’	6.00▼	5.75▼	1.33▲
02:40 +9’	5.00▼	5.50▼	1.42▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Palmerston Rovers FC 0–0–2 Darwin Olympic

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
17/07/26 Australia Darwin Premier League	Darwin Olympic	7-1 HT 6-1	Palmerston Rovers FC
01/05/26 Australia Darwin Premier League	Palmerston Rovers FC	2-7 HT 0-6	Darwin Olympic

Standings · Australia Darwin Premier League

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	University Azzurri FC	23	20	2	1	99	22	62
2	Mindil Aces	22	15	2	5	79	22	47
3	Darwin Olympic	22	12	4	6	64	37	40
4	Port Darwin FC	22	12	1	9	70	58	37
5	Darwin Hearts	22	10	3	9	55	51	33
6	Casuarina FC	22	6	4	12	41	56	22
7	Palmerston Rovers FC	22	6	2	14	41	93	20
8	Hellenic AC	22	5	4	13	30	58	19
9	Garuda FC	23	1	4	18	23	105	7

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Palmerston Rovers FC	Darwin Olympic
Casuarina FC	2-2 D	2-2 D
Port Darwin FC	2-1 W	1-0 W
Mindil Aces	0-5 L	2-0 W
University Azzurri FC	2-10 L	2-4 L
Darwin Hearts	3-8 L	3-1 W
Garuda FC	7-0 W	2-0 W
Hellenic AC	1-2 L	3-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 4 L	5 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Darwin Olympic (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Palmerston Rovers FC

WDLLWLLLWD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Casuarina FC Australia Darwin Premier League	1-1	2-2	2	6	D
26/08	Port Darwin FC Australia Darwin Premier League	2-0	2-1	5	3	W
22/08	Mindil Aces Australia Darwin Premier League	0-1	0-5	4	0	L
16/08	University Azzurri FC Australia Darwin Premier League	0-5	2-10	4	2	L
09/08	Darwin Hearts Australia Darwin Premier League	1-5	3-8	2	3	L
26/07	Garuda FC Australia Darwin Premier League	3-0	7-0	2	0	W
23/07	Hellenic AC Australia Darwin Premier League	0-1	1-2	2	3	L
17/07	Darwin Olympic Australia Darwin Premier League	1-6	1-7	1	5	L
02/07	Garuda FC Australia Darwin Premier League	2-0	2-2	9	2	D
27/06	Casuarina FC Australia Darwin Premier League	1-1	3-2	3	2	W

Darwin Olympic

LLWWDLWWWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Darwin Hearts Australia Darwin Premier League	2-1	3-1	6	0	W
21/08	Garuda FC Australia Darwin Premier League	1-0	2-0	4	4	W
18/08	Mindil Aces Australia Darwin Premier League	1-0	2-0	7	2	W
15/08	Hellenic AC Australia Darwin Premier League	3-0	3-0	4	3	W
08/08	University Azzurri FC Australia Darwin Premier League	1-2	2-4	2	3	L
02/08	Casuarina FC Australia Darwin Premier League	2-0	2-2	2	2	D
25/07	Port Darwin FC Australia Darwin Premier League	0-0	1-0	3	6	W
17/07	Palmerston Rovers FC Australia Darwin Premier League	6-1	7-1	11	5	W
02/07	Port Darwin FC Australia Darwin Premier League	1-2	3-4	5	5	L
28/06	Darwin Hearts Australia Darwin Premier League	1-3	2-3	4	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Palmerston Rovers FC vs Darwin Olympic?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Darwin Olympic win (65%). Probabilities: Palmerston Rovers FC 18%, draw 17%, Darwin Olympic 65%.

How many goals are expected in Palmerston Rovers FC vs Darwin Olympic?

The model expects 4.59 goals (Palmerston Rovers FC 1.62 · Darwin Olympic 2.97), with a 50% chance of over 4.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Palmerston Rovers FC vs Darwin Olympic?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.