Football · Brazil Serie B · 17/10, 23:30

Prediction: America MG vs Operario PR

Team pages: America MG · Operario PR

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.27Total

America MG0.89

Operario PR1.38

1X2

24% 29% 48%

America MG Draw Operario PR

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

America MG 2-0-8 (W-D-L)

LLWLWLLLLL

Operario PR 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DDWWDWDLLL

Head-to-head

America MG 2–1–3 Operario PR (6 last)

Operario PR1-0America MG
America MG1-1Operario PR
Operario PR1-0America MG
Operario PR1-0America MG
America MG2-0Operario PR
Operario PR0-1America MG

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · America MG 1405 · Operario PR 1498

	America MG	Draw	Operario PR
Our model	23%	30%	47%
Market	24%	28%	48%

Estimated total (ours) 2.27 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Operario PR (rating 1405 vs 1498).
H2H favours Operario PR: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	America MG	Operario PR
Goals for / against (FT)	0.5 / 1.7	1.4 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.7	0.8 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/30/60%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 5.4	2.1 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0	4.6 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.80

X3.30

21.91

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.85

2 (-0.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.80

Under 2.252.00

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:31

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	1.91 → 1.91	Bet365 1.91

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9%

Time*	1	X	2
19:24 +7’	3.80	3.30	1.91

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · America MG 2–1–3 Operario PR

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/06/26 Brazil Serie B	Operario PR	1-0 HT 0-0	America MG
07/09/25 Brazil Serie B	America MG	1-1 HT 1-1	Operario PR
05/05/25 Brazil Serie B	Operario PR	1-0 HT 1-0	America MG
24/10/24 Brazil Serie B	Operario PR	1-0 HT 0-0	America MG
06/07/24 Brazil Serie B	America MG	2-0 HT 0-0	Operario PR
21/11/20 Brazil Serie B	Operario PR	0-1 HT 0-1	America MG

Standings · Brazil Serie B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vila Nova	33	18	7	8	46	31	61
2	EC Juventude	33	17	9	7	39	21	60
3	Gremio Novorizontino	32	16	9	7	54	27	57
4	Fortaleza	32	15	11	6	37	27	56
5	Criciuma	32	15	8	9	33	28	53
6	Atletico GO	33	14	11	8	41	31	53
7	CRB	32	15	6	11	49	45	51
8	Sport Recife	33	13	12	8	45	35	51
9	Goias	33	14	6	13	34	40	48
10	Operario PR	33	13	9	11	44	45	48
11	Cuiaba	33	11	14	8	32	26	47
12	Sao Bernardo SP	33	12	10	11	46	36	46
13	Nautico	33	11	9	13	39	42	42
14	Ceara	32	11	9	12	35	39	42
15	Athletic Club MG	32	10	12	10	38	37	42
16	Botafogo SP	32	10	8	14	36	38	38
17	Avai	33	10	6	17	33	43	36
18	Londrina	32	7	7	18	40	47	28
19	America MG	32	4	5	23	21	53	17
20	Ponte Preta	32	3	4	25	17	68	13

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	America MG	Operario PR
Fortaleza	0-1 L	1-1 D
EC Juventude	0-1 L	0-3 L
Vila Nova	0-1 L	0-0 D
Nautico	2-1 W	3-3 D
CRB	1-3 L	3-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 4 L	1 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Operario PR (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

America MG

LLWLWLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/10	Fortaleza Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-1	3	5	L
03/10	Atletico GO Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-2	6	3	L
29/09	EC Juventude Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-1	3	3	L
19/09	Vila Nova Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-1	5	5	L
15/09	Sao Bernardo SP Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-2	5	5	L
10/09	Nautico Brazil Serie B	2-0	2-1	5	3	W
05/09	CRB Brazil Serie B	0-1	1-3	3	4	L
30/08	Ponte Preta Brazil Serie B	0-0	2-0	12	1	W
25/08	Sport Recife Brazil Serie B	0-2	0-3	10	0	L
21/08	Gremio Novorizontino Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-3	2	5	L

Operario PR

DDWWDWDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Goias Brazil Serie B	0-2	0-2	14	2	L
08/10	Botafogo SP Brazil Serie B	1-1	1-2	7	5	L
03/10	EC Juventude Brazil Serie B	0-2	0-3	5	4	L
26/09	Ceara Brazil Serie B	1-0	2-2	7	4	D
23/09	Criciuma Brazil Serie B	1-0	2-0	2	5	W
16/09	Nautico Brazil Serie B	1-1	3-3	2	5	D
10/09	CRB Brazil Serie B	2-0	3-0	0	4	W
06/09	Londrina Brazil Serie B	1-0	2-1	3	12	W
01/09	Fortaleza Brazil Serie B	1-1	1-1	1	2	D
23/08	Vila Nova Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-0	5	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in America MG vs Operario PR?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Operario PR win (48%). Probabilities: America MG 24%, draw 29%, Operario PR 48%.

How many goals are expected in America MG vs Operario PR?

The model expects 2.27 goals (America MG 0.89 · Operario PR 1.38), with a 50% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in America MG vs Operario PR?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.