Football · Brazil Serie B · 24/10, 21:30

Prediction: Sao Bernardo SP vs Vila Nova

Team pages: Sao Bernardo SP · Vila Nova

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.11Total

Sao Bernardo SP1.05

Vila Nova1.06

1X2

34% 33% 34%

Sao Bernardo SP Draw Vila Nova

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 65% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Sao Bernardo SP 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWLWWDWLDL

Vila Nova 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WLWDWWWDWD

Head-to-head

Sao Bernardo SP 0–1 Vila Nova (1 last)

Vila Nova2-1Sao Bernardo SP

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Vila Nova (rating 1508 vs 1564).
Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sao Bernardo SP	Vila Nova
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1	1.3 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.5	0.7 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 5.5	2.8 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0.1	4.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.01

Under 2.251.82

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.2

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 01:15

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	2.44 → 2.63▲	Pinn 2.63
X	3.05 → 3.01▼	Pinn 3.01
2	3.15 → 2.92▼	Pinn 2.92

See the full journey (2)

Pinnacle margin 5.5%

Time*	1	X	2
00:12 +2’	2.44	3.05	3.15
01:05 +10’	2.63▲	3.01▼	2.92▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sao Bernardo SP 0–0–1 Vila Nova

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/07/26 Brazil Serie B	Vila Nova	2-1 HT 1-0	Sao Bernardo SP

Standings · Brazil Serie B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vila Nova	33	18	7	8	46	31	61
2	EC Juventude	34	17	10	7	41	23	61
3	Gremio Novorizontino	33	17	9	7	59	28	60
4	Fortaleza	34	16	12	6	41	29	60
5	Criciuma	33	16	8	9	34	28	56
6	Atletico GO	34	14	12	8	42	32	54
7	CRB	33	15	7	11	51	47	52
8	Sport Recife	34	13	12	9	45	37	51
9	Goias	33	14	6	13	34	40	48
10	Operario PR	34	13	9	12	44	46	48
11	Cuiaba	33	11	14	8	32	26	47
12	Sao Bernardo SP	33	12	10	11	46	36	46
13	Ceara	34	11	10	13	37	42	43
14	Athletic Club MG	33	10	13	10	40	39	43
15	Nautico	33	11	9	13	39	42	42
16	Botafogo SP	33	11	8	14	37	38	41
17	Avai	33	10	6	17	33	43	36
18	Londrina	33	7	8	18	42	49	29
19	America MG	34	5	5	24	22	54	20
20	Ponte Preta	34	3	5	26	19	74	14

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sao Bernardo SP	Vila Nova
Gremio Novorizontino	0-0 D	2-2 D
America MG	2-0 W	1-0 W
Londrina	1-2 L	2-0 W
Goias	1-2 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 2 L	3 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Vila Nova (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sao Bernardo SP

LWLWWDWLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Criciuma Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-1	9	0	L
11/10	EC Juventude Brazil Serie B	1-1	2-2	3	5	D
07/10	Sport Recife Brazil Serie B	0-1	1-2	9	7	L
03/10	CRB Brazil Serie B	0-0	3-1	5	2	W
26/09	Gremio Novorizontino Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-0	1	2	D
19/09	Atletico GO Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-0	2	2	W
15/09	America MG Brazil Serie B	0-0	2-0	4	5	W
11/09	Londrina Brazil Serie B	1-1	1-2	4	3	L
06/09	Ponte Preta Brazil Serie B	1-0	2-0	9	5	W
29/08	Goias Brazil Serie B	0-1	1-2	9	1	L

Vila Nova

WLWDWWWDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Gremio Novorizontino Brazil Serie B	0-1	2-2	6	5	D
11/10	Nautico Brazil Serie B	2-0	2-0	4	6	W
08/10	Cuiaba Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-0	8	5	D
03/10	Botafogo SP Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-0	1	5	W
26/09	Londrina Brazil Serie B	1-0	2-0	9	3	W
19/09	America MG Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-0	5	5	W
15/09	Avai Brazil Serie B	1-1	1-1	4	2	D
11/09	Goias Brazil Serie B	0-0	2-0	2	7	W
05/09	Athletic Club MG Brazil Serie B	0-3	0-5	2	5	L
30/08	Ceara Brazil Serie B	1-0	2-0	5	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sao Bernardo SP vs Vila Nova?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sao Bernardo SP win (34%). Probabilities: Sao Bernardo SP 34%, draw 33%, Vila Nova 34%.

How many goals are expected in Sao Bernardo SP vs Vila Nova?

The model expects 2.11 goals (Sao Bernardo SP 1.05 · Vila Nova 1.06), with a 55% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Sao Bernardo SP vs Vila Nova?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.