Football · Brazil Serie B · 27/10, 00:30

Prediction: America MG vs Cuiaba

Team pages: America MG · Cuiaba

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.92Total

America MG0.91

Cuiaba1.01

1X2

30% 34% 35%

America MG Draw Cuiaba

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 59% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

0-0 16%

Recent form · 10 last

America MG 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

WLWLLLLLLW

Cuiaba 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DWLWDWLWDL

Head-to-head

America MG 0–2–4 Cuiaba (6 last)

Cuiaba1-0America MG
America MG1-1Cuiaba
Cuiaba3-1America MG
Cuiaba2-2America MG
America MG1-2Cuiaba
Cuiaba2-1America MG

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Cuiaba (rating 1441 vs 1510).
H2H favours Cuiaba: 4-2-0.
High corners: 11.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	America MG	Cuiaba
Goals for / against (FT)	0.6 / 1.2	1.2 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.4	0.4 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 5.5	2.1 / 6.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0	3.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.90

Under 2.251.92

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 1.95

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 02:24

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	3.60 → 3.65▲	Pinn 3.65
X	3.50 → 3.55▲	Pinn 3.55
2	1.98 → 2.00▲	Pinn 2.00

See the full journey (2)

Pinnacle margin 5.6%

Time*	1	X	2
00:49 +33’	3.60	3.50	1.98
01:45 +40’	3.65▲	3.55▲	2.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · America MG 0–2–4 Cuiaba

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/07/26 Brazil Serie B	Cuiaba	1-0 HT 0-0	America MG
16/11/25 Brazil Serie B	America MG	1-1 HT 0-0	Cuiaba
24/07/25 Brazil Serie B	Cuiaba	3-1 HT 1-1	America MG
16/09/23 Brazil Serie A	Cuiaba	2-2 HT 2-2	America MG
07/05/23 Brazil Serie A	America MG	1-2 HT 1-0	Cuiaba
29/09/22 Brazil Serie A	Cuiaba	2-1 HT 1-0	America MG

Standings · Brazil Serie B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vila Nova	34	18	8	8	48	33	62
2	Gremio Novorizontino	34	17	10	7	61	30	61
3	EC Juventude	34	17	10	7	41	23	61
4	Fortaleza	34	16	12	6	41	29	60
5	Criciuma	34	17	8	9	35	28	59
6	Atletico GO	34	14	12	8	42	32	54
7	CRB	34	15	7	12	51	48	52
8	Sport Recife	34	13	12	9	45	37	51
9	Goias	34	14	7	13	34	40	49
10	Operario PR	34	13	9	12	44	46	48
11	Cuiaba	34	11	14	9	32	27	47
12	Sao Bernardo SP	34	12	10	12	46	37	46
13	Botafogo SP	34	12	8	14	38	38	44
14	Athletic Club MG	34	10	14	10	40	39	44
15	Nautico	34	11	10	13	39	42	43
16	Ceara	34	11	10	13	37	42	43
17	Avai	34	10	7	17	33	43	37
18	Londrina	34	8	8	18	43	49	32
19	America MG	34	5	5	24	22	54	20
20	Ponte Preta	34	3	5	26	19	74	14

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	America MG	Cuiaba
Criciuma	0-1 L	0-2 L
Vila Nova	0-1 L	0-0 D
Nautico	2-1 W	3-0 W
CRB	1-3 L	0-3 L
Ponte Preta	2-0 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 3 L	2 W 1 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

America MG

WLWLLLLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Operario PR Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-0	6	6	W
13/10	Criciuma Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-1	7	5	L
08/10	Fortaleza Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-1	3	5	L
03/10	Atletico GO Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-2	6	3	L
29/09	EC Juventude Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-1	3	3	L
19/09	Vila Nova Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-1	5	5	L
15/09	Sao Bernardo SP Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-2	5	5	L
10/09	Nautico Brazil Serie B	2-0	2-1	5	3	W
05/09	CRB Brazil Serie B	0-1	1-3	3	4	L
30/08	Ponte Preta Brazil Serie B	0-0	2-0	12	1	W

Cuiaba

DWLWDWLWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Avai Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-1	13	3	L
08/10	Vila Nova Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
03/10	Ponte Preta Brazil Serie B	1-0	2-0	7	7	W
27/09	CRB Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-3	7	6	L
22/09	Nautico Brazil Serie B	1-0	3-0	7	3	W
13/09	Gremio Novorizontino Brazil Serie B	1-1	1-1	7	3	D
09/09	Athletic Club MG Brazil Serie B	1-0	3-0	2	1	W
05/09	Criciuma Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-2	2	2	L
29/08	Botafogo SP Brazil Serie B	0-0	2-1	4	3	W
22/08	Goias Brazil Serie B	0-1	1-1	9	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in America MG vs Cuiaba?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Cuiaba win (35%). Probabilities: America MG 30%, draw 34%, Cuiaba 35%.

How many goals are expected in America MG vs Cuiaba?

The model expects 1.92 goals (America MG 0.91 · Cuiaba 1.01), with a 56% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in America MG vs Cuiaba?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.