Football · Brazil Serie B · 24/10, 23:30

Prediction: Ponte Preta vs Fortaleza

Team pages: Ponte Preta · Fortaleza

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.43Total

Ponte Preta0.78

Fortaleza1.66

1X2

16% 27% 57%

Ponte Preta Draw Fortaleza

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

0-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Ponte Preta 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

LLLLWLLLLD

Fortaleza 5-5-0 (W-D-L)

DWWDWDDWDW

Head-to-head

Ponte Preta 1–1–1 Fortaleza (3 last)

Fortaleza2-0Ponte Preta
Fortaleza1-1Ponte Preta
Ponte Preta2-0Fortaleza

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Fortaleza (rating 1395 vs 1582).
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ponte Preta	Fortaleza
Goals for / against (FT)	0.3 / 2.4	1.4 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 1.3	1 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/10/70%	60/40/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1 / 2	2 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.5	3.7 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 2.752.00

Under 2.751.83

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 08:25

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	9.08 → 11.50▲	Pinn 11.50
X	4.85 → 5.57▲	Pinn 5.57
2	1.32 → 1.26▼	Pinn 1.26

See the full journey (3)

Pinnacle margin 6.3%

Time*	1	X	2
00:33 +1’	9.08	4.85	1.32
01:16 +21’	9.38▲	4.93▲	1.33▲
08:14 +11’	11.50▲	5.57▲	1.26▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Ponte Preta 1–1–1 Fortaleza

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/07/26 Brazil Serie B	Fortaleza	2-0 HT 0-0	Ponte Preta
27/10/18 Brazil Serie B	Fortaleza	1-1 HT 0-0	Ponte Preta
08/07/18 Brazil Serie B	Ponte Preta	2-0 HT 2-0	Fortaleza

Standings · Brazil Serie B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vila Nova	33	18	7	8	46	31	61
2	EC Juventude	34	17	10	7	41	23	61
3	Gremio Novorizontino	33	17	9	7	59	28	60
4	Fortaleza	34	16	12	6	41	29	60
5	Criciuma	33	16	8	9	34	28	56
6	Atletico GO	34	14	12	8	42	32	54
7	CRB	33	15	7	11	51	47	52
8	Sport Recife	34	13	12	9	45	37	51
9	Goias	33	14	6	13	34	40	48
10	Operario PR	34	13	9	12	44	46	48
11	Cuiaba	33	11	14	8	32	26	47
12	Sao Bernardo SP	33	12	10	11	46	36	46
13	Ceara	34	11	10	13	37	42	43
14	Athletic Club MG	33	10	13	10	40	39	43
15	Nautico	33	11	9	13	39	42	42
16	Botafogo SP	33	11	8	14	37	38	41
17	Avai	33	10	6	17	33	43	36
18	Londrina	33	7	8	18	42	49	29
19	America MG	34	5	5	24	22	54	20
20	Ponte Preta	34	3	5	26	19	74	14

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ponte Preta	Fortaleza
CRB	1-0 W	2-2 D
Londrina	0-6 L	2-1 W
Sport Recife	0-2 L	2-0 W
America MG	0-2 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 3 L	3 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Fortaleza (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ponte Preta

LLLLWLLLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Atletico GO Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-1	1	7	D
13/10	Gremio Novorizontino Brazil Serie B	1-3	1-5	3	8	L
07/10	EC Juventude Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-2	4	7	L
03/10	Cuiaba Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-2	0	7	L
30/09	Botafogo SP Brazil Serie B	0-2	0-2	2	3	L
20/09	CRB Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-0	3	6	W
16/09	Londrina Brazil Serie B	0-3	0-6	0	3	L
11/09	Sport Recife Brazil Serie B	0-2	0-2	3	4	L
06/09	Sao Bernardo SP Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-2	2	5	L
30/08	America MG Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-2	2	1	L

Fortaleza

DWWDWDDWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Sport Recife Brazil Serie B	1-0	2-0	3	7	W
12/10	CRB Brazil Serie B	2-1	2-2	6	4	D
08/10	America MG Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-0	5	5	W
03/10	Nautico Brazil Serie B	1-1	1-1	7	4	D
27/09	Athletic Club MG Brazil Serie B	1-1	2-2	5	0	D
20/09	Londrina Brazil Serie B	1-0	2-1	2	4	W
13/09	Ceara Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-1	3	4	D
10/09	Avai Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-0	4	2	W
05/09	Goias Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-0	2	8	W
01/09	Operario PR Brazil Serie B	1-1	1-1	11	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ponte Preta vs Fortaleza?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Fortaleza win (57%). Probabilities: Ponte Preta 16%, draw 27%, Fortaleza 57%.

How many goals are expected in Ponte Preta vs Fortaleza?

The model expects 2.43 goals (Ponte Preta 0.78 · Fortaleza 1.66), with a 57% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Ponte Preta vs Fortaleza?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-1.