Football · Brazil Serie B · 27/10, 00:30
Prediction: EC Juventude vs Nautico
Team pages: EC Juventude · Nautico
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.56Total
EC Juventude1.8
Nautico0.77
1X2
EC Juventude
Draw
Nautico
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
1-0 13%
Recent form · 10 last
EC Juventude
4-4-2 (W-D-L)
Nautico
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
EC Juventude
2–3–1
Nautico
(6 last)
- Nautico0-0EC Juventude
- EC Juventude1-0Nautico
- Nautico3-3EC Juventude
- Nautico2-1EC Juventude
- EC Juventude2-1Nautico
- EC Juventude0-0Nautico
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · EC Juventude 1533 · Nautico 1480
| EC Juventude | Draw | Nautico | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 61% | 25% | 14% |
| Market | 61% | 24% | 15% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.56 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours EC Juventude (rating 1533 vs 1480).
- H2H favours EC Juventude: 2-3-1.
- Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| EC Juventude | Nautico | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 1 | 1.1 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.3 | 0.3 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/70/0% | 10/40/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.4 / 3.8 | 2.9 / 6.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.1 / 0 | 3.6 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · EC Juventude 2–3–1 Nautico
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/07/26 Brazil Serie B | Nautico | 0-0 HT 0-0 | EC Juventude |
| 29/11/20 Brazil Serie B | EC Juventude | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Nautico |
| 22/08/20 Brazil Serie B | Nautico | 3-3 HT 2-2 | EC Juventude |
| 22/09/19 Brazil Serie C | Nautico | 2-1 HT 2-0 | EC Juventude |
| 15/09/19 Brazil Serie C | EC Juventude | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Nautico |
| 24/10/17 Brazil Serie B | EC Juventude | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Nautico |
Standings · Brazil Serie B
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vila Nova | 34 | 18 | 8 | 8 | 48 | 33 | 62 |
| 2 | Gremio Novorizontino | 34 | 17 | 10 | 7 | 61 | 30 | 61 |
| 3 | EC Juventude | 34 | 17 | 10 | 7 | 41 | 23 | 61 |
| 4 | Fortaleza | 34 | 16 | 12 | 6 | 41 | 29 | 60 |
| 5 | Criciuma | 34 | 17 | 8 | 9 | 35 | 28 | 59 |
| 6 | Atletico GO | 34 | 14 | 12 | 8 | 42 | 32 | 54 |
| 7 | CRB | 34 | 15 | 7 | 12 | 51 | 48 | 52 |
| 8 | Sport Recife | 34 | 13 | 12 | 9 | 45 | 37 | 51 |
| 9 | Goias | 34 | 14 | 7 | 13 | 34 | 40 | 49 |
| 10 | Operario PR | 34 | 13 | 9 | 12 | 44 | 46 | 48 |
| 11 | Cuiaba | 34 | 11 | 14 | 9 | 32 | 27 | 47 |
| 12 | Sao Bernardo SP | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 46 | 37 | 46 |
| 13 | Botafogo SP | 34 | 12 | 8 | 14 | 38 | 38 | 44 |
| 14 | Athletic Club MG | 34 | 10 | 14 | 10 | 40 | 39 | 44 |
| 15 | Nautico | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 39 | 42 | 43 |
| 16 | Ceara | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 37 | 42 | 43 |
| 17 | Avai | 34 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 33 | 43 | 37 |
| 18 | Londrina | 34 | 8 | 8 | 18 | 43 | 49 | 32 |
| 19 | America MG | 34 | 5 | 5 | 24 | 22 | 54 | 20 |
| 20 | Ponte Preta | 34 | 3 | 5 | 26 | 19 | 74 | 14 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | EC Juventude | Nautico |
|---|---|---|
| Operario PR | 3-0 W | 3-3 D |
| America MG | 1-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Sport Recife | 1-2 L | 3-1 W |
| Athletic Club MG | 0-2 L | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 2 L | 2 W 1 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
EC Juventude
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10 | Ceara Brazil Serie B |
0-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 11/10 | Sao Bernardo SP Brazil Serie B |
1-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 07/10 | Ponte Preta Brazil Serie B |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 03/10 | Operario PR Brazil Serie B |
2-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 29/09 | America MG Brazil Serie B |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 19/09 | Sport Recife Brazil Serie B |
1-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 13/09 | Athletic Club MG Brazil Serie B |
0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 09/09 | Criciuma Brazil Serie B |
0-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 05/09 | Atletico GO Brazil Serie B |
2-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 8 | D |
| 02/09 | Londrina Brazil Serie B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | D |
Nautico
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/10 | Goias Brazil Serie B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 2 | D |
| 11/10 | Vila Nova Brazil Serie B |
0-2 | 0-2 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 09/10 | Gremio Novorizontino Brazil Serie B |
0-2 | 0-2 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 03/10 | Fortaleza Brazil Serie B |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 26/09 | Sport Recife Brazil Serie B |
1-0 | 3-1 | 11 | 2 | W |
| 22/09 | Cuiaba Brazil Serie B |
0-1 | 0-3 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 16/09 | Operario PR Brazil Serie B |
1-1 | 3-3 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 10/09 | America MG Brazil Serie B |
0-2 | 1-2 | 10 | 3 | L |
| 04/09 | Botafogo SP Brazil Serie B |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 29/08 | Athletic Club MG Brazil Serie B |
0-1 | 2-1 | 8 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in EC Juventude vs Nautico?
According to our model, the most likely result is a EC Juventude win (61%). Probabilities: EC Juventude 61%, draw 25%, Nautico 15%.
How many goals are expected in EC Juventude vs Nautico?
The model expects 2.56 goals (EC Juventude 1.8 · Nautico 0.77), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in EC Juventude vs Nautico?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.