Football · Brazil Serie B · 12/10, 21:00
Prediction: Fortaleza vs CRB
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.35Total
Fortaleza1.49
CRB0.86
1X2
Fortaleza
Draw
CRB
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 58%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Fortaleza
5-5-0 (W-D-L)
CRB
6-0-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Fortaleza
2–2–2
CRB
(6 last)
- CRB1-1Fortaleza
- CRB0-0Fortaleza
- Fortaleza2-1CRB
- Fortaleza0-1CRB
- CRB2-0Fortaleza
- Fortaleza2-0CRB
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Fortaleza 1565 · CRB 1518
| Fortaleza | Draw | CRB | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 51% | 29% | 20% |
| Market | 51% | 28% | 21% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.35 goals · Bet365 line 2.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Fortaleza (rating 1565 vs 1518).
- High corners: 11.6 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Fortaleza | CRB | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 0.7 | 1.7 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.4 | 0.6 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/50/0% | 50/30/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.5 / 5.1 | 3.1 / 6.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.2 / 0.1 | 3.9 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Fortaleza 2–2–2 CRB
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06/26 Brazil Serie B | CRB | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Fortaleza |
| 15/05/26 Copa do Brasil | CRB | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Fortaleza |
| 23/04/26 Copa do Brasil | Fortaleza | 2-1 HT 1-1 | CRB |
| 27/03/25 Brazil Copa Nordeste | Fortaleza | 0-1 HT 0-1 | CRB |
| 09/06/24 Brazil Copa Nordeste | CRB | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Fortaleza |
| 06/06/24 Brazil Copa Nordeste | Fortaleza | 2-0 HT 2-0 | CRB |
Standings · Brazil Serie B
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | EC Juventude | 32 | 17 | 8 | 7 | 37 | 19 | 59 |
| 2 | Vila Nova | 32 | 17 | 7 | 8 | 44 | 31 | 58 |
| 3 | Gremio Novorizontino | 32 | 16 | 9 | 7 | 54 | 27 | 57 |
| 4 | Fortaleza | 32 | 15 | 11 | 6 | 37 | 27 | 56 |
| 5 | Criciuma | 32 | 15 | 8 | 9 | 33 | 28 | 53 |
| 6 | Atletico GO | 32 | 14 | 10 | 8 | 40 | 30 | 52 |
| 7 | CRB | 32 | 15 | 6 | 11 | 49 | 45 | 51 |
| 8 | Sport Recife | 32 | 13 | 11 | 8 | 44 | 34 | 50 |
| 9 | Operario PR | 32 | 13 | 9 | 10 | 44 | 43 | 48 |
| 10 | Cuiaba | 32 | 11 | 14 | 7 | 32 | 25 | 47 |
| 11 | Goias | 32 | 13 | 6 | 13 | 32 | 40 | 45 |
| 12 | Sao Bernardo SP | 32 | 12 | 9 | 11 | 44 | 34 | 45 |
| 13 | Nautico | 32 | 11 | 9 | 12 | 39 | 40 | 42 |
| 14 | Ceara | 32 | 11 | 9 | 12 | 35 | 39 | 42 |
| 15 | Athletic Club MG | 32 | 10 | 12 | 10 | 38 | 37 | 42 |
| 16 | Botafogo SP | 32 | 10 | 8 | 14 | 36 | 38 | 38 |
| 17 | Avai | 32 | 9 | 6 | 17 | 32 | 43 | 33 |
| 18 | Londrina | 32 | 7 | 7 | 18 | 40 | 47 | 28 |
| 19 | America MG | 32 | 4 | 5 | 23 | 21 | 53 | 17 |
| 20 | Ponte Preta | 32 | 3 | 4 | 25 | 17 | 68 | 13 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Fortaleza | CRB |
|---|---|---|
| America MG | 1-0 W | 3-1 W |
| Athletic Club MG | 2-2 D | 2-0 W |
| Operario PR | 1-1 D | 0-3 L |
| Criciuma | 2-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Sao Bernardo SP | 1-1 D | 1-3 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 3 D 0 L | 3 W 0 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Fortaleza (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Fortaleza
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/10 | America MG Brazil Serie B |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 03/10 | Nautico Brazil Serie B |
1-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 27/09 | Athletic Club MG Brazil Serie B |
1-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 0 | D |
| 20/09 | Londrina Brazil Serie B |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 13/09 | Ceara Brazil Serie B |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 10/09 | Avai Brazil Serie B |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 05/09 | Goias Brazil Serie B |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 8 | W |
| 01/09 | Operario PR Brazil Serie B |
1-1 | 1-1 | 11 | 2 | D |
| 23/08 | Criciuma Brazil Serie B |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 20/08 | Sao Bernardo SP Brazil Serie B |
1-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 1 | D |
CRB
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/10 | Atletico GO Brazil Serie B |
0-0 | 3-1 | 10 | 3 | W |
| 03/10 | Sao Bernardo SP Brazil Serie B |
0-0 | 1-3 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 27/09 | Cuiaba Brazil Serie B |
1-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 6 | W |
| 20/09 | Ponte Preta Brazil Serie B |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 16/09 | Sport Recife Brazil Serie B |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 10/09 | Operario PR Brazil Serie B |
0-2 | 0-3 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 05/09 | America MG Brazil Serie B |
1-0 | 3-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 30/08 | Criciuma Brazil Serie B |
1-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 26/08 | EC Juventude Brazil Serie B |
1-0 | 1-2 | 8 | 2 | L |
| 21/08 | Athletic Club MG Brazil Serie B |
1-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Fortaleza vs CRB?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Fortaleza win (51%). Probabilities: Fortaleza 51%, draw 28%, CRB 21%.
How many goals are expected in Fortaleza vs CRB?
The model expects 2.35 goals (Fortaleza 1.49 · CRB 0.86), with a 51% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Fortaleza vs CRB?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.