Football · Brazil Serie B · 18/10, 23:00

Prediction: Vila Nova vs Gremio Novorizontino

Team pages: Vila Nova · Gremio Novorizontino

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.28Total

Vila Nova1.14

Gremio Novorizontino1.14

1X2

35% 31% 35%

Vila Nova Draw Gremio Novorizontino

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Vila Nova 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

DWLWDWWWDW

Gremio Novorizontino 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWDLDWWW

Head-to-head

Vila Nova 1–1–4 Gremio Novorizontino (6 last)

Gremio Novorizontino2-1Vila Nova
Gremio Novorizontino1-1Vila Nova
Vila Nova0-1Gremio Novorizontino
Gremio Novorizontino2-0Vila Nova
Vila Nova2-1Gremio Novorizontino
Gremio Novorizontino3-1Vila Nova

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Vila Nova 1549 · Gremio Novorizontino 1580

	Vila Nova	Draw	Gremio Novorizontino
Our model	34%	31%	34%
Market	35%	30%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 2.28 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Gremio Novorizontino: 4-1-1.
High corners: 11.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Vila Nova	Gremio Novorizontino
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 0.6	2.4 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.4	1.4 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	70/30/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 4.7	3 / 6.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0.1	4.1 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.70

X3.10

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.90

2 (0)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.90

Under 2.251.90

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 18:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.45 → 2.70▲	Pinn 2.75 ★
X	3.10 → 3.10	Pinn 3.12
2	2.80 → 2.70▼	Bet365 2.70

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 6.3% Pinnacle margin 5.5%

Time*	1	X	2
19:40 +4’	2.45	3.10	2.80
19:59 +10’	2.70▲	3.10	2.55▼
03:26 +2’	2.75▲	3.10	2.63▲
17:06 +60’	2.70▼	3.10	2.70▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:21	2.81	3.04	2.64
01:12 +11’	2.83▲	3.07▲	2.66▲
15:35 +11’	2.83	3.11▲	2.64▼
07:38 +9’	2.78▼	3.11	2.68▲
12:39 +29’	2.75▼	3.12▲	2.70▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.25

Go premium to see every market's movement

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Vila Nova 1–1–4 Gremio Novorizontino

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
27/06/26 Brazil Serie B	Gremio Novorizontino	2-1 HT 1-1	Vila Nova
28/09/25 Brazil Serie B	Gremio Novorizontino	1-1 HT 0-1	Vila Nova
31/05/25 Brazil Serie B	Vila Nova	0-1 HT 0-1	Gremio Novorizontino
31/08/24 Brazil Serie B	Gremio Novorizontino	2-0 HT 0-0	Vila Nova
15/05/24 Brazil Serie B	Vila Nova	2-1 HT 0-0	Gremio Novorizontino
30/07/23 Brazil Serie B	Gremio Novorizontino	3-1 HT 2-0	Vila Nova

Standings · Brazil Serie B

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vila Nova	33	18	7	8	46	31	61
2	Gremio Novorizontino	33	17	9	7	59	28	60
3	EC Juventude	33	17	9	7	39	21	60
4	Fortaleza	34	16	12	6	41	29	60
5	Criciuma	33	16	8	9	34	28	56
6	Atletico GO	34	14	12	8	42	32	54
7	CRB	33	15	7	11	51	47	52
8	Sport Recife	34	13	12	9	45	37	51
9	Goias	33	14	6	13	34	40	48
10	Operario PR	33	13	9	11	44	45	48
11	Cuiaba	33	11	14	8	32	26	47
12	Sao Bernardo SP	33	12	10	11	46	36	46
13	Athletic Club MG	33	10	13	10	40	39	43
14	Nautico	33	11	9	13	39	42	42
15	Ceara	33	11	9	13	35	40	42
16	Botafogo SP	33	11	8	14	37	38	41
17	Avai	33	10	6	17	33	43	36
18	Londrina	33	7	8	18	42	49	29
19	America MG	33	4	5	24	21	54	17
20	Ponte Preta	34	3	5	26	19	74	14

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Vila Nova	Gremio Novorizontino
Nautico	2-0 W	2-0 W
Cuiaba	0-0 D	1-1 D
Botafogo SP	1-0 W	3-1 W
Avai	1-1 D	3-1 W
Goias	2-0 W	3-0 W
Athletic Club MG	0-5 L	4-1 W
Ceara	2-0 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 1 L	5 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Gremio Novorizontino (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Vila Nova

DWLWDWWWDW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Nautico Brazil Serie B	2-0	2-0	4	6	W
08/10	Cuiaba Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-0	8	5	D
03/10	Botafogo SP Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-0	1	5	W
26/09	Londrina Brazil Serie B	1-0	2-0	9	3	W
19/09	America MG Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-0	5	5	W
15/09	Avai Brazil Serie B	1-1	1-1	4	2	D
11/09	Goias Brazil Serie B	0-0	2-0	2	7	W
05/09	Athletic Club MG Brazil Serie B	0-3	0-5	2	5	L
30/08	Ceara Brazil Serie B	1-0	2-0	5	5	W
23/08	Operario PR Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-0	7	5	D

Gremio Novorizontino

WWWWDLDWWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/10	Ponte Preta Brazil Serie B	3-1	5-1	5	8	W
09/10	Nautico Brazil Serie B	2-0	2-0	4	5	W
02/10	Goias Brazil Serie B	1-0	3-0	4	4	W
26/09	Sao Bernardo SP Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-0	9	2	D
19/09	Ceara Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-2	9	8	L
13/09	Cuiaba Brazil Serie B	1-1	1-1	10	3	D
10/09	Botafogo SP Brazil Serie B	1-1	3-1	4	6	W
05/09	Avai Brazil Serie B	3-1	3-1	8	3	W
29/08	Sport Recife Brazil Serie B	1-0	2-1	9	3	W
25/08	Athletic Club MG Brazil Serie B	1-0	4-1	5	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Vila Nova vs Gremio Novorizontino?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Vila Nova win (35%). Probabilities: Vila Nova 35%, draw 31%, Gremio Novorizontino 35%.

How many goals are expected in Vila Nova vs Gremio Novorizontino?

The model expects 2.28 goals (Vila Nova 1.14 · Gremio Novorizontino 1.14), with a 51% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Vila Nova vs Gremio Novorizontino?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.