Football · Brazil Serie B · 21/10, 00:30

Prediction: Londrina vs Cuiaba

Team pages: Londrina · Cuiaba

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.38Total

Londrina1.16

Cuiaba1.21

1X2

34% 30% 36%

Londrina Draw Cuiaba

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Londrina 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LDLWWLLLLD

Cuiaba 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DWLWDWLWDL

Head-to-head

Londrina 2–1–0 Cuiaba (3 last)

Cuiaba2-2Londrina
Cuiaba0-1Londrina
Londrina1-0Cuiaba

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Londrina 1445 · Cuiaba 1515

	Londrina	Draw	Cuiaba
Our model	34%	30%	36%
Market	34%	30%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 2.38 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Cuiaba (rating 1445 vs 1515).
H2H favours Londrina: 2-1-0.
High corners: 12.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Londrina	Cuiaba
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.5	1.2 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.8	0.4 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5.9	2.1 / 6.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.1	3.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.80

X3.10

22.63

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.95

2 (0)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.98

Under 2.251.82

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 5 moves · last 03:31

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.70 → 2.80▲	Bet365 2.80
X	3.10 → 3.10	Pinn 3.13
2	2.60 → 2.63▲	Pinn 2.73 ★

See the full journey (5)

Bet365 margin 6.1% Pinnacle margin 5.5%

Time*	1	X	2
00:12 +10’	2.70	3.10	2.60
01:13 +11’	2.55▼	3.10	2.75▲
11:30 +4’	2.63▲	3.20▲	2.63▼
08:19 +3’	2.70▲	3.20	2.55▼
03:15 +16’	2.80▲	3.10▼	2.63▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:04 +20’	2.59	3.09	2.82
02:02 +30’	2.62▲	3.12▲	2.84▲
11:05 +29’	2.71▲	3.13▲	2.73▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.25

Go premium to see every market's movement

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Londrina 2–1–0 Cuiaba

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/06/26 Brazil Serie B	Cuiaba	2-2 HT 0-2	Londrina
06/10/19 Brazil Serie B	Cuiaba	0-1 HT 0-1	Londrina
08/06/19 Brazil Serie B	Londrina	1-0 HT 1-0	Cuiaba

Standings · Brazil Serie B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vila Nova	33	18	7	8	46	31	61
2	Gremio Novorizontino	33	17	9	7	59	28	60
3	EC Juventude	33	17	9	7	39	21	60
4	Fortaleza	34	16	12	6	41	29	60
5	Criciuma	33	16	8	9	34	28	56
6	Atletico GO	34	14	12	8	42	32	54
7	CRB	33	15	7	11	51	47	52
8	Sport Recife	34	13	12	9	45	37	51
9	Goias	33	14	6	13	34	40	48
10	Operario PR	33	13	9	11	44	45	48
11	Cuiaba	33	11	14	8	32	26	47
12	Sao Bernardo SP	33	12	10	11	46	36	46
13	Athletic Club MG	33	10	13	10	40	39	43
14	Nautico	33	11	9	13	39	42	42
15	Ceara	33	11	9	13	35	40	42
16	Botafogo SP	33	11	8	14	37	38	41
17	Avai	33	10	6	17	33	43	36
18	Londrina	33	7	8	18	42	49	29
19	America MG	33	4	5	24	21	54	17
20	Ponte Preta	34	3	5	26	19	74	14

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Londrina	Cuiaba
Athletic Club MG	2-2 D	3-0 W
Avai	1-2 L	0-1 L
Criciuma	0-2 L	0-2 L
Vila Nova	0-2 L	0-0 D
Ponte Preta	6-0 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 3 L	2 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Cuiaba (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Londrina

LDLWWLLLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/10	Athletic Club MG Brazil Serie B	1-1	2-2	1	3	D
08/10	Avai Brazil Serie B	0-2	1-2	9	6	L
03/10	Criciuma Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-2	6	4	L
26/09	Vila Nova Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-2	5	3	L
20/09	Fortaleza Brazil Serie B	0-1	1-2	8	4	L
16/09	Ponte Preta Brazil Serie B	3-0	6-0	10	3	W
11/09	Sao Bernardo SP Brazil Serie B	1-1	2-1	7	3	W
06/09	Operario PR Brazil Serie B	0-1	1-2	7	12	L
02/09	EC Juventude Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-0	5	1	D
22/08	Ceara Brazil Serie B	1-1	1-2	1	3	L

Cuiaba

DWLWDWLWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Avai Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-1	13	3	L
08/10	Vila Nova Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
03/10	Ponte Preta Brazil Serie B	1-0	2-0	7	7	W
27/09	CRB Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-3	7	6	L
22/09	Nautico Brazil Serie B	1-0	3-0	7	3	W
13/09	Gremio Novorizontino Brazil Serie B	1-1	1-1	7	3	D
09/09	Athletic Club MG Brazil Serie B	1-0	3-0	2	1	W
05/09	Criciuma Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-2	2	2	L
29/08	Botafogo SP Brazil Serie B	0-0	2-1	4	3	W
22/08	Goias Brazil Serie B	0-1	1-1	9	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Londrina vs Cuiaba?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Cuiaba win (36%). Probabilities: Londrina 34%, draw 30%, Cuiaba 36%.

How many goals are expected in Londrina vs Cuiaba?

The model expects 2.38 goals (Londrina 1.16 · Cuiaba 1.21), with a 51% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Londrina vs Cuiaba?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.