Football · Brazil Serie B · 18/10, 21:00

Prediction: Avai vs Athletic Club MG

Team pages: Avai · Athletic Club MG

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.59Total

Avai1.45

Athletic Club MG1.14

1X2

42% 30% 28%

Avai Draw Athletic Club MG

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Avai 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

WLLLDLLLWW

Athletic Club MG 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LLWLWDDLLD

Head-to-head

Avai 1–2 Athletic Club MG (3 last)

Athletic Club MG1-0Avai
Avai2-1Athletic Club MG
Athletic Club MG4-0Avai

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Avai 1473 · Athletic Club MG 1466

	Avai	Draw	Athletic Club MG
Our model	43%	29%	29%
Market	42%	30%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 2.59 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Athletic Club MG: 2-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Avai	Athletic Club MG
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.3	1.6 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.4	0.8 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.1	1.8 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.1	3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.10

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.90

2 (+0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.75

Under 2.252.05

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 01:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.25▲	Pinn 2.31 ★
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.49

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 6.1% Pinnacle margin 4.4%

Time*	1	X	2
19:37 +7’	2.15	3.10	3.40
03:25 +3’	2.20▲	3.10	3.50▲
01:11 +8’	2.25▲	3.10	3.40▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:43 +39’	2.16	3.02	3.67
01:44 +44’	2.18▲	3.05▲	3.72▲
21:41	2.21▲	3.08▲	3.73▲
00:53 +26’	2.31▲	3.08	3.49▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Avai 1–0–2 Athletic Club MG

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/06/26 Brazil Serie B	Athletic Club MG	1-0 HT 0-0	Avai
01/11/25 Brazil Serie B	Avai	2-1 HT 1-0	Athletic Club MG
15/07/25 Brazil Serie B	Athletic Club MG	4-0 HT 2-0	Avai

Standings · Brazil Serie B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vila Nova	33	18	7	8	46	31	61
2	EC Juventude	34	17	10	7	41	23	61
3	Gremio Novorizontino	33	17	9	7	59	28	60
4	Fortaleza	34	16	12	6	41	29	60
5	Criciuma	33	16	8	9	34	28	56
6	Atletico GO	34	14	12	8	42	32	54
7	CRB	33	15	7	11	51	47	52
8	Sport Recife	34	13	12	9	45	37	51
9	Goias	33	14	6	13	34	40	48
10	Operario PR	34	13	9	12	44	46	48
11	Cuiaba	33	11	14	8	32	26	47
12	Sao Bernardo SP	33	12	10	11	46	36	46
13	Ceara	34	11	10	13	37	42	43
14	Athletic Club MG	33	10	13	10	40	39	43
15	Nautico	33	11	9	13	39	42	42
16	Botafogo SP	33	11	8	14	37	38	41
17	Avai	33	10	6	17	33	43	36
18	Londrina	33	7	8	18	42	49	29
19	America MG	34	5	5	24	22	54	20
20	Ponte Preta	34	3	5	26	19	74	14

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Avai	Athletic Club MG
Cuiaba	1-0 W	0-3 L
Londrina	2-1 W	2-2 D
Goias	1-2 L	1-2 L
Vila Nova	1-1 D	5-0 W
Fortaleza	0-1 L	2-2 D
Gremio Novorizontino	1-3 L	1-4 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 3 L	1 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Avai (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Avai

WLLLDLLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Cuiaba Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-0	5	3	W
08/10	Londrina Brazil Serie B	2-0	2-1	4	6	W
03/10	Ceara Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-1	8	5	L
27/09	Criciuma Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-3	2	7	L
20/09	Goias Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-2	3	8	L
15/09	Vila Nova Brazil Serie B	1-1	1-1	4	2	D
10/09	Fortaleza Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-1	2	2	L
05/09	Gremio Novorizontino Brazil Serie B	1-3	1-3	2	3	L
30/08	Atletico GO Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-1	7	2	L
23/08	Ponte Preta Brazil Serie B	0-0	2-0	4	5	W

Athletic Club MG

LLWLWDDLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/10	Londrina Brazil Serie B	1-1	2-2	6	3	D
07/10	Goias Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-2	5	4	L
02/10	Sport Recife Brazil Serie B	1-2	1-2	8	4	L
27/09	Fortaleza Brazil Serie B	1-1	2-2	1	0	D
19/09	Botafogo SP Brazil Serie B	1-1	1-1	2	5	D
13/09	EC Juventude Brazil Serie B	0-0	2-0	3	5	W
09/09	Cuiaba Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-3	6	1	L
05/09	Vila Nova Brazil Serie B	3-0	5-0	2	5	W
29/08	Nautico Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-2	2	3	L
25/08	Gremio Novorizontino Brazil Serie B	0-1	1-4	9	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Avai vs Athletic Club MG?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Avai win (42%). Probabilities: Avai 42%, draw 30%, Athletic Club MG 28%.

How many goals are expected in Avai vs Athletic Club MG?

The model expects 2.59 goals (Avai 1.45 · Athletic Club MG 1.14), with a 55% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Avai vs Athletic Club MG?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.