Football · Brazil Serie B · 18/10, 21:00

Prediction: Sao Bernardo SP vs Criciuma

Team pages: Sao Bernardo SP · Criciuma

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.2Total

Sao Bernardo SP1.02

Criciuma1.18

1X2

31% 31% 38%

Sao Bernardo SP Draw Criciuma

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Sao Bernardo SP 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DLWLWWDWLD

Criciuma 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

LLWLLLWWLW

Head-to-head

Sao Bernardo SP 0–1 Criciuma (1 last)

Criciuma1-0Sao Bernardo SP

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sao Bernardo SP 1526 · Criciuma 1486

	Sao Bernardo SP	Draw	Criciuma
Our model	30%	32%	38%
Market	31%	30%	39%

Estimated total (ours) 2.2 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sao Bernardo SP (rating 1526 vs 1486).
High corners: 12.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sao Bernardo SP	Criciuma
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1	0.9 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.4	0.2 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/70/20%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 5	3.6 / 7.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.1	4.5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.00

X3.10

22.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.75

2 (-0.25)2.05

Line ⓘ

Over 21.77

Under 22.02

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.3

Market movement

Match winner · 5 moves · last 20:28

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 3.00▲	Pinn 3.20 ★
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	2.80 → 2.40▼	Pinn 2.46

See the full journey (5)

Bet365 margin 7.3% Pinnacle margin 4.4%

Time*	1	X	2
19:39 +4’	2.50	3.10	2.80
19:59 +9’	2.88▲	3.10	2.45▼
02:55 +32’	3.00▲	3.10	2.45
11:43 +11’	2.90▼	3.10	2.50▲
20:01 +27’	3.00▲	3.10	2.40▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:41 +41’	2.92	2.97	2.59
01:42 +41’	2.95▲	3.00▲	2.61▲
23:59 +21’	3.10▲	3.00	2.51▼
10:59 +31’	3.07▼	3.01▲	2.52▲
21:28 +17’	3.10▲	3.02▲	2.49▼
19:59 +29’	3.17▲	3.04▲	2.44▼
21:02 +39’	3.21▲	3.07▲	2.46▲
23:48 +26’	3.20▼	3.08▲	2.46

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Sao Bernardo SP 0–0–1 Criciuma

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
27/06/26 Brazil Serie B	Criciuma	1-0 HT 1-0	Sao Bernardo SP

Standings · Brazil Serie B

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vila Nova	33	18	7	8	46	31	61
2	Gremio Novorizontino	33	17	9	7	59	28	60
3	EC Juventude	33	17	9	7	39	21	60
4	Fortaleza	34	16	12	6	41	29	60
5	Criciuma	33	16	8	9	34	28	56
6	Atletico GO	34	14	12	8	42	32	54
7	CRB	33	15	7	11	51	47	52
8	Sport Recife	34	13	12	9	45	37	51
9	Goias	33	14	6	13	34	40	48
10	Operario PR	33	13	9	11	44	45	48
11	Cuiaba	33	11	14	8	32	26	47
12	Sao Bernardo SP	33	12	10	11	46	36	46
13	Athletic Club MG	33	10	13	10	40	39	43
14	Nautico	33	11	9	13	39	42	42
15	Ceara	33	11	9	13	35	40	42
16	Botafogo SP	33	11	8	14	37	38	41
17	Avai	33	10	6	17	33	43	36
18	Londrina	33	7	8	18	42	49	29
19	America MG	33	4	5	24	21	54	17
20	Ponte Preta	34	3	5	26	19	74	14

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sao Bernardo SP	Criciuma
EC Juventude	2-2 D	0-2 L
CRB	3-1 W	1-2 L
Atletico GO	1-0 W	0-4 L
America MG	2-0 W	1-0 W
Londrina	1-2 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Sao Bernardo SP (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sao Bernardo SP

DLWLWWDWLD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	EC Juventude Brazil Serie B	1-1	2-2	3	5	D
07/10	Sport Recife Brazil Serie B	0-1	1-2	9	7	L
03/10	CRB Brazil Serie B	0-0	3-1	5	2	W
26/09	Gremio Novorizontino Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-0	1	2	D
19/09	Atletico GO Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-0	2	2	W
15/09	America MG Brazil Serie B	0-0	2-0	4	5	W
11/09	Londrina Brazil Serie B	1-1	1-2	4	3	L
06/09	Ponte Preta Brazil Serie B	1-0	2-0	9	5	W
29/08	Goias Brazil Serie B	0-1	1-2	9	1	L
23/08	Nautico Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-1	4	1	D

Criciuma

LLWLLLWWLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/10	America MG Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-0	9	5	W
09/10	Ceara Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-1	6	4	L
03/10	Londrina Brazil Serie B	0-0	2-0	4	4	W
27/09	Avai Brazil Serie B	0-0	3-0	5	7	W
23/09	Operario PR Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-2	17	5	L
13/09	Atletico GO Brazil Serie B	0-2	0-4	5	6	L
09/09	EC Juventude Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-2	10	7	L
05/09	Cuiaba Brazil Serie B	1-0	2-0	4	2	W
30/08	CRB Brazil Serie B	1-1	1-2	6	4	L
23/08	Fortaleza Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-2	10	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sao Bernardo SP vs Criciuma?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Criciuma win (38%). Probabilities: Sao Bernardo SP 31%, draw 31%, Criciuma 38%.

How many goals are expected in Sao Bernardo SP vs Criciuma?

The model expects 2.2 goals (Sao Bernardo SP 1.02 · Criciuma 1.18), with a 53% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Sao Bernardo SP vs Criciuma?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.