Football · Brazil Serie B · 20/10, 00:30

Prediction: Goias vs Nautico

Team pages: Goias · Nautico

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.6Total

Goias1.68

Nautico0.92

1X2

54% 26% 20%

Goias Draw Nautico

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Goias 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

DWLLWWLLWW

Nautico 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DWWLDLWDLL

Head-to-head

Goias 3–3 Nautico (6 last)

Nautico0-1Goias
Nautico3-2Goias
Goias0-1Nautico
Goias2-0Nautico
Nautico2-3Goias
Nautico1-0Goias

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Goias 1524 · Nautico 1467

	Goias	Draw	Nautico
Our model	54%	27%	19%
Market	54%	26%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 2.6 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Goias (rating 1524 vs 1467).
Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Goias	Nautico
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.2	1.2 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.5	0.3 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 4.4	2.7 / 5.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0.1	3.5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.73

X3.60

24.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.95

2 (+0.75)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 03:30

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 1.73▼	Pinn 1.74
X	3.20 → 3.60▲	Pinn 3.68 ★
2	3.75 → 4.75▲	Bet365 4.75

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 6.7% Pinnacle margin 6%

Time*	1	X	2
00:03 +20’	2.00	3.20	3.75
02:20 +5’	1.90▼	3.30▲	3.90▲
16:53 +3’	1.83▼	3.50▲	4.10▲
03:29 +1’	1.73▼	3.60▲	4.75▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:11 +13’	1.83	3.51	4.22
01:43 +43’	1.75▼	3.68▲	4.63▲
05:42 +35’	1.83▲	3.55▼	4.34▼
20:04 +11’	1.73▼	3.70▲	4.74▲
23:04 +4’	1.76▲	3.65▼	4.60▼
17:49 +48’	1.71▼	3.73▲	4.81▲
22:09 +35’	1.71▼	3.75▲	4.80▼
23:02 +14’	1.74▲	3.68▼	4.72▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Goias 3–0–3 Nautico

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
28/06/26 Brazil Serie B	Nautico	0-1 HT 0-1	Goias
06/10/21 Brazil Serie B	Nautico	3-2 HT 2-1	Goias
10/07/21 Brazil Serie B	Goias	0-1 HT 0-0	Nautico
07/10/17 Brazil Serie B	Goias	2-0 HT 1-0	Nautico
21/06/17 Brazil Serie B	Nautico	2-3 HT 1-1	Goias
09/11/16 Brazil Serie B	Nautico	1-0 HT 0-0	Goias

Standings · Brazil Serie B

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vila Nova	33	18	7	8	46	31	61
2	EC Juventude	34	17	10	7	41	23	61
3	Gremio Novorizontino	33	17	9	7	59	28	60
4	Fortaleza	34	16	12	6	41	29	60
5	Criciuma	33	16	8	9	34	28	56
6	Atletico GO	34	14	12	8	42	32	54
7	CRB	33	15	7	11	51	47	52
8	Sport Recife	34	13	12	9	45	37	51
9	Goias	33	14	6	13	34	40	48
10	Operario PR	34	13	9	12	44	46	48
11	Cuiaba	33	11	14	8	32	26	47
12	Sao Bernardo SP	33	12	10	11	46	36	46
13	Ceara	34	11	10	13	37	42	43
14	Athletic Club MG	33	10	13	10	40	39	43
15	Nautico	33	11	9	13	39	42	42
16	Botafogo SP	33	11	8	14	37	38	41
17	Avai	33	10	6	17	33	43	36
18	Londrina	33	7	8	18	42	49	29
19	America MG	34	5	5	24	22	54	20
20	Ponte Preta	34	3	5	26	19	74	14

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Goias	Nautico
Operario PR	2-0 W	3-3 D
Athletic Club MG	2-1 W	2-1 W
Gremio Novorizontino	0-3 L	0-2 L
Botafogo SP	3-1 W	1-0 W
Vila Nova	0-2 L	0-2 L
Fortaleza	0-1 L	1-1 D
Sao Bernardo SP	2-1 W	1-1 D
Cuiaba	1-1 D	0-3 L
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 3 L	2 W 3 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Goias (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Goias

DWLLWWLLWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Operario PR Brazil Serie B	2-0	2-0	0	2	W
07/10	Athletic Club MG Brazil Serie B	0-0	2-1	5	4	W
02/10	Gremio Novorizontino Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-3	2	4	L
26/09	Atletico GO Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-1	6	4	L
20/09	Avai Brazil Serie B	0-1	2-1	8	8	W
15/09	Botafogo SP Brazil Serie B	1-1	3-1	7	7	W
11/09	Vila Nova Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-2	7	7	L
05/09	Fortaleza Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-1	5	8	L
29/08	Sao Bernardo SP Brazil Serie B	1-0	2-1	4	1	W
22/08	Cuiaba Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-1	0	3	D

Nautico

DWWLDLWDLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Vila Nova Brazil Serie B	0-2	0-2	7	6	L
09/10	Gremio Novorizontino Brazil Serie B	0-2	0-2	3	5	L
03/10	Fortaleza Brazil Serie B	1-1	1-1	4	4	D
26/09	Sport Recife Brazil Serie B	1-0	3-1	11	2	W
22/09	Cuiaba Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-3	4	3	L
16/09	Operario PR Brazil Serie B	1-1	3-3	4	5	D
10/09	America MG Brazil Serie B	0-2	1-2	10	3	L
04/09	Botafogo SP Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-0	5	4	W
29/08	Athletic Club MG Brazil Serie B	0-1	2-1	8	3	W
23/08	Sao Bernardo SP Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-1	3	1	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Goias vs Nautico?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Goias win (54%). Probabilities: Goias 54%, draw 26%, Nautico 20%.

How many goals are expected in Goias vs Nautico?

The model expects 2.6 goals (Goias 1.68 · Nautico 0.92), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Goias vs Nautico?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.