Football · Brazil Serie B · 28/10, 00:00
Prediction: Ceara vs Goias
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.32Total
Ceara1.38
Goias0.94
1X2
Ceara
Draw
Goias
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 59%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Ceara
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Goias
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Ceara
1–3–2
Goias
(6 last)
- Goias2-0Ceara
- Goias2-1Ceara
- Ceara1-1Goias
- Ceara1-1Goias
- Goias1-1Ceara
- Goias0-4Ceara
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ceara 1507 · Goias 1518
| Ceara | Draw | Goias | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 46% | 30% | 24% |
| Market | 46% | 29% | 25% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.32 goals · Bet365 line 2.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Goias: 2-3-1.
- High corners: 11.4 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Ceara | Goias | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 1.2 | 1.1 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.1 / 0.6 | 0.4 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/50/50% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 5.7 | 2 / 5.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.4 / 0.1 | 4.6 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Ceara 1–3–2 Goias
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07/26 Brazil Serie B | Goias | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Ceara |
| 13/08/24 Brazil Serie B | Goias | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Ceara |
| 20/04/24 Brazil Serie B | Ceara | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Goias |
| 06/10/22 Brazil Serie A | Ceara | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Goias |
| 12/06/22 Brazil Serie A | Goias | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Ceara |
| 21/01/21 Brazil Serie A | Goias | 0-4 HT 0-2 | Ceara |
Standings · Brazil Serie B
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vila Nova | 34 | 18 | 8 | 8 | 48 | 33 | 62 |
| 2 | Gremio Novorizontino | 34 | 17 | 10 | 7 | 61 | 30 | 61 |
| 3 | EC Juventude | 34 | 17 | 10 | 7 | 41 | 23 | 61 |
| 4 | Fortaleza | 34 | 16 | 12 | 6 | 41 | 29 | 60 |
| 5 | Criciuma | 34 | 17 | 8 | 9 | 35 | 28 | 59 |
| 6 | Atletico GO | 34 | 14 | 12 | 8 | 42 | 32 | 54 |
| 7 | CRB | 34 | 15 | 7 | 12 | 51 | 48 | 52 |
| 8 | Sport Recife | 34 | 13 | 12 | 9 | 45 | 37 | 51 |
| 9 | Goias | 34 | 14 | 7 | 13 | 34 | 40 | 49 |
| 10 | Operario PR | 34 | 13 | 9 | 12 | 44 | 46 | 48 |
| 11 | Cuiaba | 34 | 11 | 14 | 9 | 32 | 27 | 47 |
| 12 | Sao Bernardo SP | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 46 | 37 | 46 |
| 13 | Botafogo SP | 34 | 12 | 8 | 14 | 38 | 38 | 44 |
| 14 | Athletic Club MG | 34 | 10 | 14 | 10 | 40 | 39 | 44 |
| 15 | Nautico | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 39 | 42 | 43 |
| 16 | Ceara | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 37 | 42 | 43 |
| 17 | Avai | 34 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 33 | 43 | 37 |
| 18 | Londrina | 34 | 8 | 8 | 18 | 43 | 49 | 32 |
| 19 | America MG | 34 | 5 | 5 | 24 | 22 | 54 | 20 |
| 20 | Ponte Preta | 34 | 3 | 5 | 26 | 19 | 74 | 14 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Ceara | Goias |
|---|---|---|
| Botafogo SP | 0-1 L | 3-1 W |
| Avai | 1-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Operario PR | 2-2 D | 2-0 W |
| Gremio Novorizontino | 2-1 W | 0-3 L |
| Fortaleza | 1-1 D | 0-1 L |
| Atletico GO | 1-2 L | 0-1 L |
| Vila Nova | 0-2 L | 0-2 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 2 D 3 L | 3 W 0 D 4 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ceara
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10 | EC Juventude Brazil Serie B |
0-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 13/10 | Botafogo SP Brazil Serie B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 09/10 | Criciuma Brazil Serie B |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 03/10 | Avai Brazil Serie B |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 26/09 | Operario PR Brazil Serie B |
0-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 19/09 | Gremio Novorizontino Brazil Serie B |
0-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 8 | W |
| 13/09 | Fortaleza Brazil Serie B |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 10/09 | Atletico GO Brazil Serie B |
1-2 | 1-2 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 05/09 | Sport Recife Brazil Serie B |
0-0 | 2-1 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 30/08 | Vila Nova Brazil Serie B |
0-1 | 0-2 | 9 | 5 | L |
Goias
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/10 | Nautico Brazil Serie B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 13 | 2 | D |
| 11/10 | Operario PR Brazil Serie B |
2-0 | 2-0 | 0 | 2 | W |
| 07/10 | Athletic Club MG Brazil Serie B |
0-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 02/10 | Gremio Novorizontino Brazil Serie B |
0-1 | 0-3 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 26/09 | Atletico GO Brazil Serie B |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 20/09 | Avai Brazil Serie B |
0-1 | 2-1 | 8 | 8 | W |
| 15/09 | Botafogo SP Brazil Serie B |
1-1 | 3-1 | 7 | 7 | W |
| 11/09 | Vila Nova Brazil Serie B |
0-0 | 0-2 | 7 | 7 | L |
| 05/09 | Fortaleza Brazil Serie B |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 8 | L |
| 29/08 | Sao Bernardo SP Brazil Serie B |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 1 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ceara vs Goias?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Ceara win (46%). Probabilities: Ceara 46%, draw 29%, Goias 25%.
How many goals are expected in Ceara vs Goias?
The model expects 2.32 goals (Ceara 1.38 · Goias 0.94), with a 50% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Ceara vs Goias?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.