Football · USA MLS · 18/10, 01:30

Prediction: New York City FC vs Los Angeles FC

Team pages: New York City FC · Los Angeles FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.52Total

New York City FC1.2

Los Angeles FC1.32

1X2

33% 28% 39%

New York City FC Draw Los Angeles FC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

New York City FC 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

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Los Angeles FC 1-5-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

New York City FC 1–4–1 Los Angeles FC (6 last)

Los Angeles FC1-1New York City FC
Los Angeles FC1-0New York City FC
Los Angeles FC1-1New York City FC
Los Angeles FC1-2New York City FC
New York City FC2-2Los Angeles FC
Los Angeles FC2-2New York City FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · New York City FC 1452 · Los Angeles FC 1478

	New York City FC	Draw	Los Angeles FC
Our model	32%	29%	38%
Market	34%	27%	40%

Estimated total (ours) 2.52 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 11.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	New York City FC	Los Angeles FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.4	0.9 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.4	0.4 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.8	2 / 7.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.1	4.2 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.75

X3.50

22.35

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.75

2 (-0.25)2.05

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.90

Under 2.751.90

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:41

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.75 → 2.75	Bet365 2.75
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.35 → 2.35	Bet365 2.35

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.5%

Time*	1	X	2
19:34 +7’	2.75	3.50	2.35

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · New York City FC 1–4–1 Los Angeles FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/02/26 America Friendlies	Los Angeles FC	1-1	New York City FC
02/03/25 USA MLS	Los Angeles FC	1-0 HT 0-0	New York City FC
28/01/23 World Club Friendlies	Los Angeles FC	1-1	New York City FC
29/05/21 USA MLS	Los Angeles FC	1-2 HT 0-0	New York City FC
17/03/19 USA MLS	New York City FC	2-2 HT 1-1	Los Angeles FC
14/05/18 USA MLS	Los Angeles FC	2-2 HT 1-1	New York City FC

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Western Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	28	15	6	7	61	30	51
2	St. Louis City SC	27	13	8	6	48	36	47
3	FC Dallas	28	13	8	7	52	45	47
4	San Jose Earthquakes	28	13	7	8	50	40	46
5	Houston Dynamo	28	13	6	9	36	34	45
6	Los Angeles FC	29	11	9	9	44	31	42
7	Seattle Sounders	28	11	8	9	38	35	41
8	Colorado Rapids	28	11	4	13	39	39	37
9	LA Galaxy	28	9	9	10	37	44	36
10	Portland Timbers	28	9	6	13	51	54	33
11	Real Salt Lake	28	9	5	14	41	46	32
12	San Diego FC	28	8	8	12	48	51	32
13	Austin FC	28	7	10	11	36	51	31
14	Minnesota United	28	7	9	12	42	51	30
15	Sporting Kansas City	28	6	4	18	35	68	22

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	New York City FC	Los Angeles FC
New York Red Bulls	0-1 L	2-0 W
Real Salt Lake	2-0 W	2-2 D
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 0 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

New York City FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Chicago Fire USA MLS	1-0	1-2	4	4	L
27/09	Atlanta United USA MLS	1-1	2-2	3	2	D
19/09	New York Red Bulls USA MLS	0-0	0-1	6	5	L
13/09	Real Salt Lake USA MLS	1-0	2-0	1	4	W
10/09	New England Revolution USA MLS	0-1	1-2	12	2	L
05/09	Nashville SC USA MLS	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
30/08	Toronto FC USA MLS	1-0	1-1	2	6	D
23/08	New England Revolution USA MLS	1-1	1-1	4	2	D
20/08	FC Cincinnati USA MLS	1-1	1-2	5	6	L
17/08	Philadelphia Union USA MLS	2-0	2-3	8	7	L

Los Angeles FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS	0-1	1-1	3	6	D
27/09	FC Dallas USA MLS	0-1	0-1	2	6	L
20/09	San Jose Earthquakes USA MLS	1-0	2-2	3	4	D
13/09	Sporting Kansas City USA MLS	0-2	1-3	13	4	L
10/09	New York Red Bulls USA MLS	1-0	2-0	9	4	W
06/09	Real Salt Lake USA MLS	2-1	2-2	8	3	D
30/08	DC United USA MLS	0-0	0-0	8	0	D
23/08	Portland Timbers USA MLS	0-1	1-1	12	5	D
20/08	Colorado Rapids USA MLS	0-1	0-1	4	6	L
16/08	San Diego FC USA MLS	0-0	0-1	9	7	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in New York City FC vs Los Angeles FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Los Angeles FC win (39%). Probabilities: New York City FC 33%, draw 28%, Los Angeles FC 39%.

How many goals are expected in New York City FC vs Los Angeles FC?

The model expects 2.52 goals (New York City FC 1.2 · Los Angeles FC 1.32), with a 55% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in New York City FC vs Los Angeles FC?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.