Football · USA MLS · 25/10, 02:30

Prediction: Real Salt Lake vs St. Louis City SC

Team pages: Real Salt Lake · St. Louis City SC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.21Total

Real Salt Lake1.61

St. Louis City SC1.61

1X2

37% 25% 37%

Real Salt Lake Draw St. Louis City SC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Real Salt Lake 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LDLLLLWLDW

St. Louis City SC 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WDWDWWWWDL

Head-to-head

Real Salt Lake 2–4–0 St. Louis City SC (6 last)

St. Louis City SC1-1Real Salt Lake
St. Louis City SC2-2Real Salt Lake
Real Salt Lake3-2St. Louis City SC
St. Louis City SC1-1Real Salt Lake
Real Salt Lake3-1St. Louis City SC
St. Louis City SC1-1Real Salt Lake

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Real Salt Lake 1458 · St. Louis City SC 1574

	Real Salt Lake	Draw	St. Louis City SC
Our model	37%	25%	37%
Market	37%	25%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 3.21 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours St. Louis City SC (rating 1458 vs 1574).
H2H favours Real Salt Lake: 2-4-0.
Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Real Salt Lake	St. Louis City SC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.6	2.8 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.7	1.9 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	80/20/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.5	2.2 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0	4.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.50

X3.70

22.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.90

2 (0)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 31.82

Under 31.98

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7%

Time*	1	X	2
13:10 +7’	2.50	3.70	2.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Real Salt Lake 2–4–0 St. Louis City SC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/08/26 USA MLS	St. Louis City SC	1-1 HT 0-0	Real Salt Lake
19/10/25 USA MLS	St. Louis City SC	2-2 HT 1-2	Real Salt Lake
06/07/25 USA MLS	Real Salt Lake	3-2 HT 2-0	St. Louis City SC
05/02/25 World Club Friendlies	St. Louis City SC	1-1	Real Salt Lake
31/03/24 USA MLS	Real Salt Lake	3-1 HT 0-1	St. Louis City SC
25/02/24 USA MLS	St. Louis City SC	1-1 HT 0-0	Real Salt Lake

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Western Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	30	16	7	7	63	31	55
2	St. Louis City SC	30	14	9	7	56	41	51
3	FC Dallas	30	14	9	7	55	47	51
4	San Jose Earthquakes	30	13	9	8	52	42	48
5	Houston Dynamo	30	13	8	9	41	39	47
6	Los Angeles FC	31	12	10	9	48	33	46
7	Seattle Sounders	30	11	9	10	39	37	42
8	LA Galaxy	31	10	10	11	43	52	40
9	Colorado Rapids	30	11	6	13	41	41	39
10	Real Salt Lake	30	10	6	14	45	48	36
11	Portland Timbers	30	9	7	14	51	56	34
12	San Diego FC	30	8	10	12	53	56	34
13	Minnesota United	30	8	10	12	47	55	34
14	Austin FC	30	7	10	13	38	56	31
15	Sporting Kansas City	30	6	4	20	36	75	22

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Real Salt Lake	St. Louis City SC
Vancouver Whitecaps	0-3 L	0-0 D
Houston Dynamo	1-2 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: St. Louis City SC (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Real Salt Lake

LDLLLLWLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Sporting Kansas City USA MLS	2-1	3-1	5	6	W
15/10	San Jose Earthquakes USA MLS	0-0	1-1	5	1	D
11/10	Philadelphia Union USA MLS	0-1	1-2	3	6	L
27/09	New England Revolution USA MLS	1-0	3-0	1	4	W
24/09	Seattle Sounders USA MLS	0-0	0-2	6	6	L
20/09	Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS	0-2	0-3	5	7	L
13/09	New York City FC USA MLS	0-1	0-2	10	4	L
10/09	Houston Dynamo USA MLS	0-0	1-2	4	5	L
06/09	Los Angeles FC USA MLS	1-2	2-2	5	3	D
30/08	Colorado Rapids USA MLS	0-0	0-1	1	8	L

St. Louis City SC

WDWDWWWWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Minnesota United USA MLS	2-0	2-3	7	4	L
15/10	Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
12/10	LA Galaxy USA MLS	5-1	6-2	2	4	W
01/10	New York Red Bulls USA MLS	1-0	3-0	3	2	W
20/09	Toronto FC USA MLS	1-0	3-1	8	4	W
13/09	Minnesota United USA MLS	3-1	4-2	6	3	W
10/09	Portland Timbers USA MLS	1-1	2-2	2	5	D
06/09	Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS	3-1	3-1	2	7	W
31/08	FC Dallas USA MLS	2-1	3-3	5	3	D
23/08	Houston Dynamo USA MLS	1-0	2-1	1	7	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Real Salt Lake vs St. Louis City SC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Real Salt Lake win (37%). Probabilities: Real Salt Lake 37%, draw 25%, St. Louis City SC 37%.

How many goals are expected in Real Salt Lake vs St. Louis City SC?

The model expects 3.21 goals (Real Salt Lake 1.61 · St. Louis City SC 1.61), with a 52% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Real Salt Lake vs St. Louis City SC?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.