Football · USA MLS · 26/10, 02:00
Prediction: Los Angeles FC vs LA Galaxy
Team pages: Los Angeles FC · LA Galaxy
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.31Total
Los Angeles FC2.22
LA Galaxy1.1
1X2
Los Angeles FC
Draw
LA Galaxy
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 58%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
2-1 10%
Recent form · 10 last
Los Angeles FC
2-6-2 (W-D-L)
LA Galaxy
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Los Angeles FC
3–2–1
LA Galaxy
(6 last)
- LA Galaxy0-3Los Angeles FC
- Los Angeles FC3-3LA Galaxy
- LA Galaxy2-2Los Angeles FC
- LA Galaxy4-2Los Angeles FC
- LA Galaxy1-2Los Angeles FC
- Los Angeles FC2-1LA Galaxy
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Los Angeles FC 1515 · LA Galaxy 1496
| Los Angeles FC | Draw | LA Galaxy | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 62% | 21% | 17% |
| Market | 62% | 20% | 17% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.31 goals · Bet365 line 3.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Los Angeles FC: 3-2-1.
- High corners: 12 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Los Angeles FC | LA Galaxy | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 1.2 | 1.8 / 2.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.6 | 0.9 / 1.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/20/40% | 30/20/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 6.9 | 2.2 / 5.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.2 / 0.2 | 3.8 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Los Angeles FC 3–2–1 LA Galaxy
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07/26 USA MLS | LA Galaxy | 0-3 HT 0-2 | Los Angeles FC |
| 20/07/25 USA MLS | Los Angeles FC | 3-3 HT 2-1 | LA Galaxy |
| 19/05/25 USA MLS | LA Galaxy | 2-2 HT 1-1 | Los Angeles FC |
| 15/09/24 USA MLS | LA Galaxy | 4-2 HT 0-2 | Los Angeles FC |
| 05/07/24 USA MLS | LA Galaxy | 1-2 HT 0-2 | Los Angeles FC |
| 07/04/24 USA MLS | Los Angeles FC | 2-1 HT 2-1 | LA Galaxy |
Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Western Conference
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 30 | 16 | 7 | 7 | 63 | 31 | 55 |
| 2 | St. Louis City SC | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 56 | 41 | 51 |
| 3 | FC Dallas | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 55 | 47 | 51 |
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 30 | 13 | 9 | 8 | 52 | 42 | 48 |
| 5 | Houston Dynamo | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 41 | 39 | 47 |
| 6 | Los Angeles FC | 31 | 12 | 10 | 9 | 48 | 33 | 46 |
| 7 | Seattle Sounders | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 39 | 37 | 42 |
| 8 | LA Galaxy | 31 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 43 | 52 | 40 |
| 9 | Colorado Rapids | 30 | 11 | 6 | 13 | 41 | 41 | 39 |
| 10 | Real Salt Lake | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | 45 | 48 | 36 |
| 11 | Portland Timbers | 30 | 9 | 7 | 14 | 51 | 56 | 34 |
| 12 | San Diego FC | 30 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 53 | 56 | 34 |
| 13 | Minnesota United | 30 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 47 | 55 | 34 |
| 14 | Austin FC | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 38 | 56 | 31 |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 30 | 6 | 4 | 20 | 36 | 75 | 22 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Los Angeles FC | LA Galaxy |
|---|---|---|
| Vancouver Whitecaps | 1-1 D | 0-3 L |
| Portland Timbers | 1-1 D | 2-0 W |
| Record vs common | 0 W 2 D 0 L | 1 W 0 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Los Angeles FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10 | New York City FC USA MLS |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 15/10 | Austin FC USA MLS |
0-0 | 3-1 | 7 | 0 | W |
| 11/10 | Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 27/09 | FC Dallas USA MLS |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 20/09 | San Jose Earthquakes USA MLS |
1-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 13/09 | Sporting Kansas City USA MLS |
0-2 | 1-3 | 13 | 4 | L |
| 10/09 | New York Red Bulls USA MLS |
1-0 | 2-0 | 9 | 4 | W |
| 06/09 | Real Salt Lake USA MLS |
2-1 | 2-2 | 8 | 3 | D |
| 30/08 | DC United USA MLS |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 0 | D |
| 23/08 | Portland Timbers USA MLS |
0-1 | 1-1 | 12 | 4 | D |
LA Galaxy
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10 | San Diego FC USA MLS |
2-2 | 2-2 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 15/10 | Portland Timbers USA MLS |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 12/10 | St. Louis City SC USA MLS |
1-5 | 2-6 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 27/09 | Colorado Rapids USA MLS |
0-2 | 3-2 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 20/09 | Minnesota United USA MLS |
1-2 | 3-2 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 13/09 | Seattle Sounders USA MLS |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 10/09 | Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS |
0-1 | 0-3 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 06/09 | New England Revolution USA MLS |
2-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 30/08 | San Diego FC USA MLS |
0-1 | 1-3 | 7 | 7 | L |
| 23/08 | CF Montreal USA MLS |
1-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 3 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Los Angeles FC vs LA Galaxy?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Los Angeles FC win (62%). Probabilities: Los Angeles FC 62%, draw 21%, LA Galaxy 17%.
How many goals are expected in Los Angeles FC vs LA Galaxy?
The model expects 3.31 goals (Los Angeles FC 2.22 · LA Galaxy 1.1), with a 50% chance of over 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Los Angeles FC vs LA Galaxy?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.