Football · USA MLS · 25/10, 02:30

Prediction: Houston Dynamo vs Minnesota United

Team pages: Houston Dynamo · Minnesota United

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.44Total

Houston Dynamo1.95

Minnesota United1.48

1X2

47% 25% 28%

Houston Dynamo Draw Minnesota United

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Houston Dynamo 1-6-3 (W-D-L)

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Minnesota United 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Houston Dynamo 2–2–2 Minnesota United (6 last)

Minnesota United2-2Houston Dynamo
Minnesota United3-1Houston Dynamo
Houston Dynamo2-0Minnesota United
Houston Dynamo1-1Minnesota United
Minnesota United1-2Houston Dynamo
Houston Dynamo0-3Minnesota United

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Houston Dynamo 1471 · Minnesota United 1480

	Houston Dynamo	Draw	Minnesota United
Our model	48%	24%	29%
Market	47%	26%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 3.44 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Houston Dynamo	Minnesota United
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.5	2.5 / 2.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.7	0.8 / 1.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	20/10/70%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.6	2.2 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.3	3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.60

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.02

2 (+0.5)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 1.2 · xG: 3.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Pinn 2.12 ★
X	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 3.66
2	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.2% Pinnacle margin 5%

Time*	1	X	2
13:06 +10’	2.00	3.60	3.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
14:44 +571’	1.98	3.78	3.54
02:17 +56’	2.12▲	3.66▼	3.28▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Houston Dynamo 2–2–2 Minnesota United

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/10/26 USA MLS	Minnesota United	2-2 HT 0-1	Houston Dynamo
26/06/25 USA MLS	Minnesota United	3-1 HT 0-0	Houston Dynamo
15/05/25 USA MLS	Houston Dynamo	2-0 HT 1-0	Minnesota United
14/07/24 USA MLS	Houston Dynamo	1-1 HT 0-0	Minnesota United
14/04/24 USA MLS	Minnesota United	1-2 HT 0-1	Houston Dynamo
13/07/23 USA MLS	Houston Dynamo	0-3 HT 0-2	Minnesota United

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Western Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	30	16	7	7	63	31	55
2	St. Louis City SC	30	14	9	7	56	41	51
3	FC Dallas	30	14	9	7	55	47	51
4	San Jose Earthquakes	30	13	9	8	52	42	48
5	Houston Dynamo	30	13	8	9	41	39	47
6	Los Angeles FC	31	12	10	9	48	33	46
7	Seattle Sounders	30	11	9	10	39	37	42
8	LA Galaxy	31	10	10	11	43	52	40
9	Colorado Rapids	30	11	6	13	41	41	39
10	Real Salt Lake	30	10	6	14	45	48	36
11	Portland Timbers	30	9	7	14	51	56	34
12	San Diego FC	30	8	10	12	53	56	34
13	Minnesota United	30	8	10	12	47	55	34
14	Austin FC	30	7	10	13	38	56	31
15	Sporting Kansas City	30	6	4	20	36	75	22

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Houston Dynamo	Minnesota United
FC Dallas	2-2 D	1-2 L
San Jose Earthquakes	0-1 L	5-1 W
St. Louis City SC	1-2 L	3-2 W
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Minnesota United (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Houston Dynamo

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	FC Dallas USA MLS	0-1	2-2	5	9	D
15/10	San Diego FC USA MLS	3-2	3-3	3	6	D
11/10	Minnesota United USA MLS	1-0	2-2	5	2	D
27/09	Sporting Kansas City USA MLS	0-2	0-2	8	6	L
20/09	FC Cincinnati USA MLS	1-0	2-2	3	0	D
13/09	San Jose Earthquakes USA MLS	0-1	0-1	3	4	L
10/09	Real Salt Lake USA MLS	0-0	2-1	1	5	W
06/09	Charlotte FC USA MLS	0-0	0-0	6	8	D
30/08	San Jose Earthquakes USA MLS	0-0	0-0	7	1	D
23/08	St. Louis City SC USA MLS	0-1	1-2	5	7	L

Minnesota United

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	St. Louis City SC USA MLS	0-2	3-2	6	4	W
15/10	Colorado Rapids USA MLS	0-1	2-2	4	4	D
11/10	Houston Dynamo USA MLS	0-1	2-2	2	2	D
27/09	Seattle Sounders USA MLS	0-2	1-3	7	4	L
20/09	LA Galaxy USA MLS	2-1	2-3	5	2	L
13/09	St. Louis City SC USA MLS	1-3	2-4	5	3	L
10/09	FC Dallas USA MLS	0-0	1-2	2	4	L
06/09	Portland Timbers USA MLS	2-3	4-5	3	4	L
30/08	Orlando City SC USA MLS	0-1	3-3	8	4	D
23/08	San Jose Earthquakes USA MLS	3-1	5-1	3	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Houston Dynamo vs Minnesota United?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Houston Dynamo win (47%). Probabilities: Houston Dynamo 47%, draw 25%, Minnesota United 28%.

How many goals are expected in Houston Dynamo vs Minnesota United?

The model expects 3.44 goals (Houston Dynamo 1.95 · Minnesota United 1.48), with a 57% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Houston Dynamo vs Minnesota United?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.