Football · Brazil Serie B · 11/10, 21:00

Prediction: EC Juventude vs Sao Bernardo SP

Team pages: EC Juventude · Sao Bernardo SP

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.15Total

EC Juventude1.54

Sao Bernardo SP0.61

1X2

59% 27% 14%

EC Juventude Draw Sao Bernardo SP

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 64% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

1-0 17%

Recent form · 10 last

EC Juventude 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WWDDWLLWWW

Sao Bernardo SP 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DDLWLWWDWL

Head-to-head

EC Juventude 1–0 Sao Bernardo SP (1 last)

Sao Bernardo SP0-1EC Juventude

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · EC Juventude 1561 · Sao Bernardo SP 1522

	EC Juventude	Draw	Sao Bernardo SP
Our model	59%	28%	14%
Market	60%	26%	14%

Estimated total (ours) 2.15 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	EC Juventude	Sao Bernardo SP
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 0.7	1.3 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.3	0.3 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	10/70/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 3.6	2.4 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0	2.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.57

X3.60

26.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)2.02

2 (+1)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.90

Under 2.251.90

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.15

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 09:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.57 → 1.57	Bet365 1.57
X	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 3.87 ★
2	5.50 → 6.50▲	Pinn 6.82

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 6.8% Pinnacle margin 4.4%

Time*	1	X	2
19:00 +5’	1.57	3.60	5.50
03:47 +18’	1.55▼	3.60	7.00▲
09:20	1.57▲	3.60	6.50▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
03:41 +50’	1.53	3.83	6.78
17:43 +82’	1.53▲	3.82▼	6.76▼
21:37 +127’	1.51▼	3.89▲	6.86▲
18:38 +113’	1.53▲	3.85▼	6.75▼
15:12 +178’	1.51▼	3.94▲	6.77▲
21:02 +37’	1.54▲	3.95▲	6.77
07:01 +12’	1.54▲	3.94▼	6.76▼
07:50 +25’	1.55▲	3.91▼	6.76
09:07 +13’	1.56▲	3.87▼	6.82▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · EC Juventude 1–0–0 Sao Bernardo SP

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/06/26 Brazil Serie B	Sao Bernardo SP	0-1 HT 0-0	EC Juventude

Standings · Brazil Serie B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	EC Juventude	32	17	8	7	37	19	59
2	Vila Nova	32	17	7	8	44	31	58
3	Gremio Novorizontino	32	16	9	7	54	27	57
4	Fortaleza	32	15	11	6	37	27	56
5	Criciuma	32	15	8	9	33	28	53
6	Atletico GO	32	14	10	8	40	30	52
7	CRB	32	15	6	11	49	45	51
8	Sport Recife	32	13	11	8	44	34	50
9	Operario PR	32	13	9	10	44	43	48
10	Cuiaba	32	11	14	7	32	25	47
11	Goias	32	13	6	13	32	40	45
12	Sao Bernardo SP	32	12	9	11	44	34	45
13	Nautico	32	11	9	12	39	40	42
14	Ceara	32	11	9	12	35	39	42
15	Athletic Club MG	32	10	12	10	38	37	42
16	Botafogo SP	32	10	8	14	36	38	38
17	Avai	32	9	6	17	32	43	33
18	Londrina	32	7	7	18	40	47	28
19	America MG	32	4	5	23	21	53	17
20	Ponte Preta	32	3	4	25	17	68	13

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	EC Juventude	Sao Bernardo SP
Ponte Preta	2-0 W	2-0 W
America MG	1-0 W	2-0 W
Sport Recife	1-2 L	1-2 L
Atletico GO	2-2 D	1-0 W
Londrina	0-0 D	1-2 L
CRB	2-1 W	3-1 W
Goias	1-0 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 1 L	4 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Sao Bernardo SP (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

EC Juventude

WWDDWLLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/10	Ponte Preta Brazil Serie B	1-0	2-0	6	7	W
03/10	Operario PR Brazil Serie B	2-0	3-0	3	4	W
29/09	America MG Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-0	7	3	W
19/09	Sport Recife Brazil Serie B	1-1	1-2	3	6	L
13/09	Athletic Club MG Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-2	3	5	L
09/09	Criciuma Brazil Serie B	0-0	2-0	2	7	W
05/09	Atletico GO Brazil Serie B	2-1	2-2	3	8	D
02/09	Londrina Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-0	1	1	D
26/08	CRB Brazil Serie B	0-1	2-1	5	2	W
19/08	Goias Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-0	3	2	W

Sao Bernardo SP

DDLWLWWDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/10	Sport Recife Brazil Serie B	0-1	1-2	9	7	L
03/10	CRB Brazil Serie B	0-0	3-1	5	2	W
26/09	Gremio Novorizontino Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-0	1	2	D
19/09	Atletico GO Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-0	2	2	W
15/09	America MG Brazil Serie B	0-0	2-0	4	5	W
11/09	Londrina Brazil Serie B	1-1	1-2	4	3	L
06/09	Ponte Preta Brazil Serie B	1-0	2-0	9	5	W
29/08	Goias Brazil Serie B	0-1	1-2	9	1	L
23/08	Nautico Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-1	4	1	D
20/08	Fortaleza Brazil Serie B	1-1	1-1	6	1	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in EC Juventude vs Sao Bernardo SP?

According to our model, the most likely result is a EC Juventude win (59%). Probabilities: EC Juventude 59%, draw 27%, Sao Bernardo SP 14%.

How many goals are expected in EC Juventude vs Sao Bernardo SP?

The model expects 2.15 goals (EC Juventude 1.54 · Sao Bernardo SP 0.61), with a 53% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in EC Juventude vs Sao Bernardo SP?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.