Football · Brazil Serie B · 17/10, 01:30

Prediction: Sport Recife vs Fortaleza

Team pages: Sport Recife · Fortaleza

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.36Total

Sport Recife1.31

Fortaleza1.05

1X2

41% 30% 29%

Sport Recife Draw Fortaleza

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Sport Recife 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WLLWLWLWWD

Fortaleza 5-5-0 (W-D-L)

WDWWDWDDWD

Head-to-head

Sport Recife 1–1–4 Fortaleza (6 last)

Fortaleza2-1Sport Recife
Sport Recife0-2Fortaleza
Fortaleza1-2Sport Recife
Fortaleza2-0Sport Recife
Fortaleza1-0Sport Recife
Sport Recife0-0Fortaleza

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sport Recife 1505 · Fortaleza 1573

	Sport Recife	Draw	Fortaleza
Our model	41%	30%	29%
Market	42%	29%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 2.36 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Fortaleza (rating 1505 vs 1573).
H2H favours Fortaleza: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sport Recife	Fortaleza
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.3	1.4 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.6	1 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	60/40/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 5.2	2.2 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.1	3.5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.20

23.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.02

2 (+0.25)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.85

Under 2.251.95

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Pinn 2.40 ★
X	3.20 → 3.20	Pinn 3.37
2	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.9% Pinnacle margin 5.5%

Time*	1	X	2
20:17 +2’	2.25	3.20	3.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
21:12 +28’	2.37	3.34	2.90
22:16 +14’	2.40▲	3.37▲	2.93▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sport Recife 1–1–4 Fortaleza

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/06/26 Brazil Serie B	Fortaleza	2-1 HT 1-0	Sport Recife
28/05/26 Brazil Copa Nordeste	Sport Recife	0-2 HT 0-1	Fortaleza
21/05/26 Brazil Copa Nordeste	Fortaleza	1-2 HT 0-1	Sport Recife
30/04/26 Brazil Copa Nordeste	Fortaleza	2-0 HT 0-0	Sport Recife
27/09/25 Brazil Serie A	Fortaleza	1-0 HT 1-0	Sport Recife
27/04/25 Brazil Serie A	Sport Recife	0-0 HT 0-0	Fortaleza

Standings · Brazil Serie B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vila Nova	33	18	7	8	46	31	61
2	Gremio Novorizontino	33	17	9	7	59	28	60
3	EC Juventude	33	17	9	7	39	21	60
4	Fortaleza	33	15	12	6	39	29	57
5	Criciuma	33	16	8	9	34	28	56
6	Atletico GO	33	14	11	8	41	31	53
7	CRB	33	15	7	11	51	47	52
8	Sport Recife	33	13	12	8	45	35	51
9	Goias	33	14	6	13	34	40	48
10	Operario PR	33	13	9	11	44	45	48
11	Cuiaba	33	11	14	8	32	26	47
12	Sao Bernardo SP	33	12	10	11	46	36	46
13	Nautico	33	11	9	13	39	42	42
14	Ceara	33	11	9	13	35	40	42
15	Athletic Club MG	32	10	12	10	38	37	42
16	Botafogo SP	33	11	8	14	37	38	41
17	Avai	33	10	6	17	33	43	36
18	Londrina	32	7	7	18	40	47	28
19	America MG	33	4	5	24	21	54	17
20	Ponte Preta	33	3	4	26	18	73	13

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sport Recife	Fortaleza
Athletic Club MG	2-1 W	2-2 D
Nautico	1-3 L	1-1 D
CRB	1-2 L	2-2 D
Ceara	1-2 L	1-1 D
America MG	3-0 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 3 L	1 W 4 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Fortaleza (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sport Recife

WLLWLWLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Atletico GO Brazil Serie B	0-1	1-1	3	3	D
07/10	Sao Bernardo SP Brazil Serie B	1-0	2-1	5	7	W
02/10	Athletic Club MG Brazil Serie B	2-1	2-1	6	4	W
26/09	Nautico Brazil Serie B	0-1	1-3	9	2	L
19/09	EC Juventude Brazil Serie B	1-1	2-1	2	6	W
16/09	CRB Brazil Serie B	0-1	1-2	3	6	L
11/09	Ponte Preta Brazil Serie B	2-0	2-0	7	4	W
05/09	Ceara Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-2	9	2	L
29/08	Gremio Novorizontino Brazil Serie B	0-1	1-2	3	3	L
25/08	America MG Brazil Serie B	2-0	3-0	5	0	W

Fortaleza

WDWWDWDDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/10	CRB Brazil Serie B	2-1	2-2	6	4	D
08/10	America MG Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-0	5	5	W
03/10	Nautico Brazil Serie B	1-1	1-1	7	4	D
27/09	Athletic Club MG Brazil Serie B	1-1	2-2	5	0	D
20/09	Londrina Brazil Serie B	1-0	2-1	2	4	W
13/09	Ceara Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-1	3	4	D
10/09	Avai Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-0	4	2	W
05/09	Goias Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-0	2	8	W
01/09	Operario PR Brazil Serie B	1-1	1-1	11	2	D
23/08	Criciuma Brazil Serie B	1-0	2-0	4	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sport Recife vs Fortaleza?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sport Recife win (41%). Probabilities: Sport Recife 41%, draw 30%, Fortaleza 29%.

How many goals are expected in Sport Recife vs Fortaleza?

The model expects 2.36 goals (Sport Recife 1.31 · Fortaleza 1.05), with a 51% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Sport Recife vs Fortaleza?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.