Football · USA USL League One · 15/10, 01:00

Prediction: Greenville Triumph SC vs Spokane Velocity FC

Team pages: Greenville Triumph SC · Spokane Velocity FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.1Total

Greenville Triumph SC1.47

Spokane Velocity FC1.63

1X2

34% 26% 40%

Greenville Triumph SC Draw Spokane Velocity FC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Greenville Triumph SC 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

DLWLLLLLLD

Spokane Velocity FC 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

LWWDLDWWDW

Head-to-head

Greenville Triumph SC 3–1–2 Spokane Velocity FC (6 last)

Spokane Velocity FC2-1Greenville Triumph SC
Spokane Velocity FC0-1Greenville Triumph SC
Greenville Triumph SC0-4Spokane Velocity FC
Spokane Velocity FC2-3Greenville Triumph SC
Spokane Velocity FC0-0Greenville Triumph SC
Greenville Triumph SC3-1Spokane Velocity FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Greenville Triumph SC 1425 · Spokane Velocity FC 1547

	Greenville Triumph SC	Draw	Spokane Velocity FC
Our model	34%	26%	40%
Market	34%	26%	40%

Estimated total (ours) 3.1 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Spokane Velocity FC (rating 1425 vs 1547).
H2H favours Greenville Triumph SC: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Greenville Triumph SC	Spokane Velocity FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 2.2	1.8 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1.4	0.9 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/20/60%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.6	1.2 / 2.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0.3	4.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.70

X3.50

22.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.00

2 (0)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.93

Under 2.751.88

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 15:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.40 → 2.70▼	Bet365 2.70
X	3.60 → 3.50▼	Bet365 3.50
2	1.85 → 2.25▲	Pinn 2.38 ★

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 10.1% Pinnacle margin 8%

Time*	1	X	2
14:01 +8’	3.40	3.60	1.85
14:49 +22’	2.88▼	3.50▼	2.10▲
15:05 +3’	2.70▼	3.50	2.25▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
14:23 +47’	2.67	3.41	2.36
23:04 +8’	2.70▲	3.46▲	2.38▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Greenville Triumph SC 3–1–2 Spokane Velocity FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/08/26 USA USL League One	Spokane Velocity FC	2-1 HT 2-0	Greenville Triumph SC
28/09/25 USA USL League One	Spokane Velocity FC	0-1 HT 0-1	Greenville Triumph SC
30/03/25 USA USL League One	Greenville Triumph SC	0-4 HT 0-2	Spokane Velocity FC
13/10/24 USA USL League One	Spokane Velocity FC	2-3 HT 0-2	Greenville Triumph SC
26/05/24 USA USL Cup	Spokane Velocity FC	0-0 HT 0-0	Greenville Triumph SC
10/03/24 USA USL League One	Greenville Triumph SC	3-1 HT 1-1	Spokane Velocity FC

Standings · USA USL League One

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Charlotte Independence	30	19	6	5	70	42	63
2	Union Omaha	30	19	4	7	53	32	61
3	Forward Madison FC	30	15	7	8	52	30	52
4	AC Boise	30	15	7	8	47	40	52
5	One Knoxville SC	31	14	9	8	49	36	51
6	Spokane Velocity FC	28	15	5	8	43	36	50
7	Chattanooga Red Wolves	30	14	4	12	50	43	46
8	Fort Wayne FC	30	12	9	9	46	37	45
9	FC Naples	30	12	4	14	35	44	40
10	Westchester SC	30	10	6	14	51	48	36
11	Sarasota Paradise	29	10	6	13	42	45	36
12	Corpus Christi FC	30	9	9	12	33	44	36
13	Antelope Valley Alta	30	8	9	13	37	44	33
14	Portland Hearts of Pine	30	7	10	13	44	55	31
15	New York Cosmos	29	7	4	18	36	59	25
16	Greenville Triumph SC	29	6	6	17	32	54	24
17	Richmond Kickers	30	6	5	19	32	63	23

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Greenville Triumph SC	Spokane Velocity FC
AC Boise	0-1 L	2-2 D
Union Omaha	1-3 L	1-3 L
Sarasota Paradise	0-6 L	1-1 D
Corpus Christi FC	0-1 L	2-3 L
Chattanooga Red Wolves	1-3 L	1-0 W
One Knoxville SC	1-1 D	2-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 5 L	2 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Spokane Velocity FC (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Greenville Triumph SC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Antelope Valley Alta USA USL League One	2-1	2-2	3	8	D
03/10	AC Boise USA USL League One	0-1	0-1	5	5	L
27/09	Union Omaha USA USL League One	1-1	1-3	1	5	L
20/09	Sarasota Paradise USA USL League One	0-4	0-6	1	2	L
16/09	Corpus Christi FC USA USL League One	0-1	0-1	3	10	L
13/09	Fort Wayne FC USA USL League One	1-2	1-3	9	7	L
06/09	Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One	0-2	1-3	6	2	L
30/08	FC Naples USA USL League One	1-0	4-0	5	3	W
23/08	Spokane Velocity FC USA USL League One	0-2	1-2	5	5	L
16/08	One Knoxville SC USA USL League One	0-0	1-1	8	4	D

Spokane Velocity FC

LWWDLDWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	One Knoxville SC USA USL League One	1-0	2-0	3	6	W
04/10	Portland Hearts of Pine USA USL League One	3-0	3-3	2	5	D
01/10	Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One	0-0	1-0	0	5	W
27/09	Forward Madison FC USA USL League One	0-0	1-0	0	5	W
21/09	AC Boise USA USL League One	0-2	2-2	2	3	D
16/09	Union Omaha USA USL League One	0-2	1-3	3	4	L
06/09	Sarasota Paradise USA USL League One	0-1	1-1	4	2	D
30/08	Westchester SC USA USL League One	2-1	3-1	2	3	W
23/08	Greenville Triumph SC USA USL League One	2-0	2-1	8	5	W
16/08	Corpus Christi FC USA USL League One	1-0	2-3	3	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Greenville Triumph SC vs Spokane Velocity FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Spokane Velocity FC win (40%). Probabilities: Greenville Triumph SC 34%, draw 26%, Spokane Velocity FC 40%.

How many goals are expected in Greenville Triumph SC vs Spokane Velocity FC?

The model expects 3.1 goals (Greenville Triumph SC 1.47 · Spokane Velocity FC 1.63), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Greenville Triumph SC vs Spokane Velocity FC?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.