Football · USA USL League One · 25/10, 01:00

Prediction: FC Naples vs Spokane Velocity FC

Team pages: FC Naples · Spokane Velocity FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.88Total

FC Naples1.57

Spokane Velocity FC1.31

1X2

43% 26% 31%

FC Naples Draw Spokane Velocity FC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Naples 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WLLDDWWWWW

Spokane Velocity FC 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

DLDWWDWLWD

Head-to-head

FC Naples 1–2 Spokane Velocity FC (3 last)

Spokane Velocity FC2-1FC Naples
FC Naples0-1Spokane Velocity FC
Spokane Velocity FC0-1FC Naples

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Naples 1551 · Spokane Velocity FC 1551

	FC Naples	Draw	Spokane Velocity FC
Our model	42%	27%	31%
Market	43%	26%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 2.88 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Spokane Velocity FC: 2-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Naples	Spokane Velocity FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.1	1.8 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.3	0.5 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/20/20%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 4	0.8 / 2.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0.1	4.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.50

22.88

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.93

2 (+0.25)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.95

Under 2.751.85

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Pinn 2.24 ★
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.88 → 2.88	Bet365 2.88

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11% Pinnacle margin 9.3%

Time*	1	X	2
17:53 +16’	2.10	3.50	2.88

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
21:01 +32’	2.24	3.37	2.86

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Naples 1–0–2 Spokane Velocity FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/05/26 USA USL League One	Spokane Velocity FC	2-1 HT 1-0	FC Naples
19/10/25 USA USL League One	FC Naples	0-1 HT 0-0	Spokane Velocity FC
23/03/25 USA USL League One	Spokane Velocity FC	0-1 HT 0-0	FC Naples

Standings · USA USL League One

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Charlotte Independence	31	20	6	5	73	42	66
2	Union Omaha	31	19	4	8	54	34	61
3	Forward Madison FC	31	16	7	8	54	30	55
4	AC Boise	31	16	7	8	49	41	55
5	Spokane Velocity FC	31	16	6	9	50	43	54
6	One Knoxville SC	32	15	9	8	52	36	54
7	Chattanooga Red Wolves	31	14	4	13	50	44	46
8	Fort Wayne FC	31	12	9	10	47	40	45
9	FC Naples	31	13	4	14	38	46	43
10	Westchester SC	31	11	6	14	53	49	39
11	Sarasota Paradise	31	11	6	14	47	49	39
12	Corpus Christi FC	31	9	9	13	34	49	36
13	Antelope Valley Alta	31	8	9	14	38	46	33
14	Portland Hearts of Pine	31	7	10	14	44	57	31
15	Greenville Triumph SC	31	7	6	18	36	60	27
16	New York Cosmos	31	7	5	19	39	65	26
17	Richmond Kickers	31	7	5	19	37	64	26

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Naples	Spokane Velocity FC
Sarasota Paradise	3-2 W	1-1 D
New York Cosmos	2-1 W	3-3 D
Chattanooga Red Wolves	1-0 W	1-0 W
One Knoxville SC	0-0 D	2-0 W
AC Boise	0-2 L	2-2 D
Greenville Triumph SC	0-4 L	3-4 L
Union Omaha	2-0 W	1-3 L
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 3 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Naples

WLLDDWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/10	Sarasota Paradise USA USL League One	1-1	3-2	4	6	W
11/10	Corpus Christi FC USA USL League One	1-0	1-0	4	4	W
08/10	Richmond Kickers USA USL League One	1-0	2-0	3	3	W
04/10	New York Cosmos USA USL League One	1-0	2-1	10	3	W
27/09	Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One	1-0	1-0	3	10	W
20/09	Fort Wayne FC USA USL League One	2-0	2-2	3	8	D
12/09	One Knoxville SC USA USL League One	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
06/09	AC Boise USA USL League One	0-1	0-2	3	5	L
30/08	Greenville Triumph SC USA USL League One	0-1	0-4	5	3	L
27/08	Union Omaha USA USL League One	1-0	2-0	1	3	W

Spokane Velocity FC

DLDWWDWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/10	New York Cosmos USA USL League One	0-1	3-3	3	5	D
18/10	Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One	0-0	1-0	3	4	W
15/10	Greenville Triumph SC USA USL League One	1-2	3-4	2	3	L
11/10	One Knoxville SC USA USL League One	1-0	2-0	3	6	W
04/10	Portland Hearts of Pine USA USL League One	3-0	3-3	2	5	D
01/10	Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One	0-0	1-0	0	5	W
27/09	Forward Madison FC USA USL League One	0-0	1-0	0	5	W
21/09	AC Boise USA USL League One	0-2	2-2	2	3	D
16/09	Union Omaha USA USL League One	0-2	1-3	3	4	L
06/09	Sarasota Paradise USA USL League One	0-1	1-1	4	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Naples vs Spokane Velocity FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Naples win (43%). Probabilities: FC Naples 43%, draw 26%, Spokane Velocity FC 31%.

How many goals are expected in FC Naples vs Spokane Velocity FC?

The model expects 2.88 goals (FC Naples 1.57 · Spokane Velocity FC 1.31), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Naples vs Spokane Velocity FC?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.