Football · USA USL League One · 22/10, 01:00

Prediction: New York Cosmos vs Spokane Velocity FC

Team pages: New York Cosmos · Spokane Velocity FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.37Total

New York Cosmos1.5

Spokane Velocity FC1.86

1X2

30% 25% 45%

New York Cosmos Draw Spokane Velocity FC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

New York Cosmos 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

DDLWLLWLLL

Spokane Velocity FC 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WDLDWWDWLW

Head-to-head

New York Cosmos 0–1 Spokane Velocity FC (1 last)

Spokane Velocity FC3-1New York Cosmos

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · New York Cosmos 1441 · Spokane Velocity FC 1552

	New York Cosmos	Draw	Spokane Velocity FC
Our model	30%	24%	45%
Market	30%	25%	45%

Estimated total (ours) 3.37 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Spokane Velocity FC (rating 1441 vs 1552).
Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	New York Cosmos	Spokane Velocity FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 2.2	1.8 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1.1	0.7 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/20/60%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 5.3	0.8 / 2.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.1 / 0.1	3.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.00

X3.60

22.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.98

2 (-0.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 31.98

Under 31.82

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.00 → 3.00	Pinn 3.35 ★
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
12:59 +7’	3.00	3.60	2.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
13:24 +41’	2.98	3.51	2.12
15:48 +19’	3.09▲	3.52▲	2.07▼
17:23 +45’	3.35▲	3.56▲	1.95▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · New York Cosmos 0–0–1 Spokane Velocity FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/03/26 USA USL League One	Spokane Velocity FC	3-1 HT 3-0	New York Cosmos

Standings · USA USL League One

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Charlotte Independence	31	20	6	5	73	42	66
2	Union Omaha	31	19	4	8	54	34	61
3	Forward Madison FC	31	16	7	8	54	30	55
4	AC Boise	31	16	7	8	49	41	55
5	One Knoxville SC	32	15	9	8	52	36	54
6	Spokane Velocity FC	30	16	5	9	47	40	53
7	Chattanooga Red Wolves	31	14	4	13	50	44	46
8	Fort Wayne FC	31	12	9	10	47	40	45
9	FC Naples	30	12	4	14	35	44	40
10	Westchester SC	31	11	6	14	53	49	39
11	Sarasota Paradise	30	11	6	13	45	46	39
12	Corpus Christi FC	31	9	9	13	34	49	36
13	Antelope Valley Alta	31	8	9	14	38	46	33
14	Portland Hearts of Pine	31	7	10	14	44	57	31
15	Greenville Triumph SC	31	7	6	18	36	60	27
16	Richmond Kickers	31	7	5	19	37	64	26
17	New York Cosmos	30	7	4	19	36	62	25

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	New York Cosmos	Spokane Velocity FC
One Knoxville SC	0-3 L	2-0 W
Westchester SC	1-2 L	3-1 W
AC Boise	1-2 L	2-2 D
Sarasota Paradise	1-2 L	1-1 D
Union Omaha	1-1 D	1-3 L
Chattanooga Red Wolves	3-3 D	1-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 4 L	3 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Spokane Velocity FC (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

New York Cosmos

DDLWLLWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	One Knoxville SC USA USL League One	0-1	0-3	3	8	L
11/10	Charlotte Independence USA USL League One	0-3	0-3	3	2	L
04/10	FC Naples USA USL League One	0-1	1-2	3	3	L
27/09	Richmond Kickers USA USL League One	2-1	3-2	6	9	W
20/09	Westchester SC USA USL League One	0-1	1-2	5	3	L
12/09	AC Boise USA USL League One	0-1	1-2	11	3	L
06/09	Fort Wayne FC USA USL League One	2-0	4-2	5	7	W
03/09	Sarasota Paradise USA USL League One	0-0	1-2	7	7	L
30/08	Union Omaha USA USL League One	1-1	1-1	2	6	D
23/08	Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One	1-2	3-3	8	4	D

Spokane Velocity FC

WDLDWWDWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One	0-0	1-0	3	4	W
15/10	Greenville Triumph SC USA USL League One	1-2	3-4	2	3	L
11/10	One Knoxville SC USA USL League One	1-0	2-0	3	6	W
04/10	Portland Hearts of Pine USA USL League One	3-0	3-3	2	5	D
01/10	Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One	0-0	1-0	0	5	W
27/09	Forward Madison FC USA USL League One	0-0	1-0	0	5	W
21/09	AC Boise USA USL League One	0-2	2-2	2	3	D
16/09	Union Omaha USA USL League One	0-2	1-3	3	4	L
06/09	Sarasota Paradise USA USL League One	0-1	1-1	4	2	D
30/08	Westchester SC USA USL League One	2-1	3-1	2	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in New York Cosmos vs Spokane Velocity FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Spokane Velocity FC win (45%). Probabilities: New York Cosmos 30%, draw 25%, Spokane Velocity FC 45%.

How many goals are expected in New York Cosmos vs Spokane Velocity FC?

The model expects 3.37 goals (New York Cosmos 1.5 · Spokane Velocity FC 1.86), with a 51% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in New York Cosmos vs Spokane Velocity FC?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.