Football · USA USL League One · 25/10, 00:00

Prediction: Forward Madison FC vs Union Omaha

Team pages: Forward Madison FC · Union Omaha

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.66Total

Forward Madison FC1.43

Union Omaha1.23

1X2

41% 27% 32%

Forward Madison FC Draw Union Omaha

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Forward Madison FC 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WDWDLWLDLW

Union Omaha 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

DLDWWWWWLL

Head-to-head

Forward Madison FC 1–2–3 Union Omaha (6 last)

Forward Madison FC4-3Union Omaha
Union Omaha1-0Forward Madison FC
Union Omaha4-0Forward Madison FC
Forward Madison FC0-1Union Omaha
Forward Madison FC0-0Union Omaha
Forward Madison FC3-3Union Omaha

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Forward Madison FC 1513 · Union Omaha 1522

	Forward Madison FC	Draw	Union Omaha
Our model	40%	28%	31%
Market	42%	26%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 2.66 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Union Omaha: 3-2-1.
High corners: 12.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 10.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Forward Madison FC	Union Omaha
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 0.8	1.5 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.4	0.8 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 5.5	3 / 6.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.8 / 0.3	4.6 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.50

22.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.95

2 (+0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.93

Under 2.751.88

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:27

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.15	Pinn 2.33 ★
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.75 → 2.75	Bet365 2.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4% Pinnacle margin 9.1%

Time*	1	X	2
16:04 +22’	2.15	3.50	2.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:43 +25’	2.33	3.40	2.72

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Forward Madison FC 1–2–3 Union Omaha

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/07/26 USA USL Cup	Forward Madison FC	4-3 HT 2-1	Union Omaha
11/04/26 USA USL League One	Union Omaha	1-0 HT 0-0	Forward Madison FC
19/10/25 USA USL League One	Union Omaha	4-0 HT 1-0	Forward Madison FC
08/06/25 USA USL League One	Forward Madison FC	0-1 HT 0-1	Union Omaha
04/05/25 USA USL League One	Forward Madison FC	0-0 HT 0-0	Union Omaha
30/08/24 USA USL Cup	Forward Madison FC	3-3 HT 2-1	Union Omaha

Standings · USA USL League One

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Charlotte Independence	31	20	6	5	73	42	66
2	Union Omaha	31	19	4	8	54	34	61
3	Forward Madison FC	31	16	7	8	54	30	55
4	AC Boise	31	16	7	8	49	41	55
5	Spokane Velocity FC	31	16	6	9	50	43	54
6	One Knoxville SC	32	15	9	8	52	36	54
7	Chattanooga Red Wolves	31	14	4	13	50	44	46
8	Fort Wayne FC	31	12	9	10	47	40	45
9	FC Naples	31	13	4	14	38	46	43
10	Westchester SC	31	11	6	14	53	49	39
11	Sarasota Paradise	31	11	6	14	47	49	39
12	Corpus Christi FC	31	9	9	13	34	49	36
13	Antelope Valley Alta	31	8	9	14	38	46	33
14	Portland Hearts of Pine	31	7	10	14	44	57	31
15	Greenville Triumph SC	31	7	6	18	36	60	27
16	New York Cosmos	31	7	5	19	39	65	26
17	Richmond Kickers	31	7	5	19	37	64	26

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Forward Madison FC	Union Omaha
Westchester SC	2-3 L	1-2 L
Fort Wayne FC	0-0 D	0-1 L
Spokane Velocity FC	0-1 L	3-1 W
Sarasota Paradise	1-1 D	1-1 D
Corpus Christi FC	2-0 W	2-1 W
One Knoxville SC	1-1 D	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 2 L	3 W 1 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Forward Madison FC

WDWDLWLDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Portland Hearts of Pine USA USL League One	2-0	2-0	10	3	W
11/10	Westchester SC USA USL League One	0-2	2-3	3	5	L
04/10	Fort Wayne FC USA USL League One	0-0	0-0	12	4	D
27/09	Spokane Velocity FC USA USL League One	0-0	0-1	5	5	L
20/09	Antelope Valley Alta USA USL League One	1-0	3-0	6	12	W
17/09	Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One	0-1	0-1	3	7	L
13/09	Sarasota Paradise USA USL League One	0-1	1-1	5	5	D
06/09	Corpus Christi FC USA USL League One	0-0	2-0	2	7	W
03/09	One Knoxville SC USA USL League One	0-0	1-1	4	6	D
30/08	Richmond Kickers USA USL League One	1-0	2-1	5	7	W

Union Omaha

DLDWWWWWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Westchester SC USA USL League One	1-2	1-2	6	6	L
10/10	Fort Wayne FC USA USL League One	0-1	0-1	10	7	L
27/09	Greenville Triumph SC USA USL League One	1-1	3-1	6	5	W
20/09	One Knoxville SC USA USL League One	1-0	2-1	5	3	W
16/09	Spokane Velocity FC USA USL League One	2-0	3-1	2	4	W
13/09	Corpus Christi FC USA USL League One	1-0	2-1	5	4	W
06/09	Charlotte Independence USA USL League One	1-0	2-0	9	5	W
30/08	New York Cosmos USA USL League One	1-1	1-1	3	6	D
27/08	FC Naples USA USL League One	0-1	0-2	16	3	L
23/08	Sarasota Paradise USA USL League One	0-1	1-1	7	8	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Forward Madison FC vs Union Omaha?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Forward Madison FC win (41%). Probabilities: Forward Madison FC 41%, draw 27%, Union Omaha 32%.

How many goals are expected in Forward Madison FC vs Union Omaha?

The model expects 2.66 goals (Forward Madison FC 1.43 · Union Omaha 1.23), with a 54% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Forward Madison FC vs Union Omaha?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.