Football · USA USL League One · 25/10, 00:00

Prediction: Richmond Kickers vs Greenville Triumph SC

Team pages: Richmond Kickers · Greenville Triumph SC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.67Total

Richmond Kickers1.87

Greenville Triumph SC1.81

1X2

39% 24% 37%

Richmond Kickers Draw Greenville Triumph SC

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Richmond Kickers 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LLDLLLWLLW

Greenville Triumph SC 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

WLLLLLLDWL

Head-to-head

Richmond Kickers 2–2–2 Greenville Triumph SC (6 last)

Greenville Triumph SC1-2Richmond Kickers
Greenville Triumph SC0-3Richmond Kickers
Greenville Triumph SC2-0Richmond Kickers
Richmond Kickers3-3Greenville Triumph SC
Greenville Triumph SC1-1Richmond Kickers
Richmond Kickers0-2Greenville Triumph SC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Richmond Kickers 1468 · Greenville Triumph SC 1414

	Richmond Kickers	Draw	Greenville Triumph SC
Our model	39%	23%	37%
Market	39%	25%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 3.67 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 76%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Richmond Kickers (rating 1468 vs 1414).
Cards-heavy: 9.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Richmond Kickers	Greenville Triumph SC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 2.3	1.3 / 2.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1.7	0.7 / 1.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/20/70%	30/10/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.5 / 6	2.4 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.3	4.7 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.35

X3.60

22.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.80

2 (0)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 31.82

Under 31.98

Diff.: 0.9 · xG: 3.9

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 18:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.70 → 2.35▼	Pinn 2.36
X	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 3.71 ★
2	2.20 → 2.50▲	Pinn 2.51

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 10.3% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
15:30 +56’	2.70	3.60	2.20
17:57 +11’	2.35▼	3.60	2.50▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:23 +45’	2.21	3.75	2.68
12:03 +13’	2.36▲	3.70▼	2.51▼
16:19 +35’	2.36	3.71▲	2.51

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Richmond Kickers 2–2–2 Greenville Triumph SC

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
12/07/26 USA USL Cup	Greenville Triumph SC	1-2 HT 0-0	Richmond Kickers
10/05/26 USA USL League One	Greenville Triumph SC	0-3 HT 0-1	Richmond Kickers
21/07/25 USA USL League One	Greenville Triumph SC	2-0 HT 1-0	Richmond Kickers
03/05/25 USA USL League One	Richmond Kickers	3-3 HT 2-2	Greenville Triumph SC
17/08/24 USA USL League One	Greenville Triumph SC	1-1 HT 1-1	Richmond Kickers
21/07/24 USA USL Cup	Richmond Kickers	0-2 HT 0-0	Greenville Triumph SC

Standings · USA USL League One

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Charlotte Independence	31	20	6	5	73	42	66
2	Union Omaha	31	19	4	8	54	34	61
3	Forward Madison FC	31	16	7	8	54	30	55
4	AC Boise	31	16	7	8	49	41	55
5	Spokane Velocity FC	31	16	6	9	50	43	54
6	One Knoxville SC	32	15	9	8	52	36	54
7	Chattanooga Red Wolves	31	14	4	13	50	44	46
8	Fort Wayne FC	31	12	9	10	47	40	45
9	FC Naples	31	13	4	14	38	46	43
10	Westchester SC	31	11	6	14	53	49	39
11	Sarasota Paradise	31	11	6	14	47	49	39
12	Corpus Christi FC	31	9	9	13	34	49	36
13	Antelope Valley Alta	31	8	9	14	38	46	33
14	Portland Hearts of Pine	31	7	10	14	44	57	31
15	Greenville Triumph SC	31	7	6	18	36	60	27
16	New York Cosmos	31	7	5	19	39	65	26
17	Richmond Kickers	31	7	5	19	37	64	26

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Richmond Kickers	Greenville Triumph SC
Corpus Christi FC	5-1 W	0-1 L
Sarasota Paradise	2-3 L	0-6 L
FC Naples	0-2 L	4-0 W
Charlotte Independence	1-2 L	0-3 L
Chattanooga Red Wolves	1-1 D	1-3 L
Fort Wayne FC	0-2 L	1-3 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 4 L	1 W 0 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Richmond Kickers (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Richmond Kickers

LLDLLLWLLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Corpus Christi FC USA USL League One	1-1	5-1	11	3	W
11/10	Sarasota Paradise USA USL League One	2-1	2-3	8	6	L
08/10	FC Naples USA USL League One	0-1	0-2	2	3	L
04/10	One Knoxville SC USA USL League One	2-2	3-2	8	3	W
27/09	New York Cosmos USA USL League One	1-2	2-3	5	9	L
20/09	Charlotte Independence USA USL League One	1-2	1-2	3	8	L
17/09	Westchester SC USA USL League One	0-5	2-5	8	4	L
13/09	Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One	0-1	1-1	5	5	D
03/09	Fort Wayne FC USA USL League One	0-1	0-2	2	4	L
30/08	Forward Madison FC USA USL League One	0-1	1-2	8	7	L

Greenville Triumph SC

WLLLLLLDWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Charlotte Independence USA USL League One	0-1	0-3	5	5	L
15/10	Spokane Velocity FC USA USL League One	2-1	4-3	3	3	W
11/10	Antelope Valley Alta USA USL League One	2-1	2-2	3	8	D
03/10	AC Boise USA USL League One	0-1	0-1	5	5	L
27/09	Union Omaha USA USL League One	1-1	1-3	1	5	L
20/09	Sarasota Paradise USA USL League One	0-4	0-6	1	2	L
16/09	Corpus Christi FC USA USL League One	0-1	0-1	3	10	L
13/09	Fort Wayne FC USA USL League One	1-2	1-3	9	7	L
06/09	Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One	0-2	1-3	6	2	L
30/08	FC Naples USA USL League One	1-0	4-0	5	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Richmond Kickers vs Greenville Triumph SC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Richmond Kickers win (39%). Probabilities: Richmond Kickers 39%, draw 24%, Greenville Triumph SC 37%.

How many goals are expected in Richmond Kickers vs Greenville Triumph SC?

The model expects 3.67 goals (Richmond Kickers 1.87 · Greenville Triumph SC 1.81), with a 57% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Richmond Kickers vs Greenville Triumph SC?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.