Football · USA USL League One · 24/10, 23:00

Prediction: Portland Hearts of Pine vs Charlotte Independence

Team pages: Portland Hearts of Pine · Charlotte Independence

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.67Total

Portland Hearts of Pine1.52

Charlotte Independence2.15

1X2

26% 22% 51%

Portland Hearts of Pine Draw Charlotte Independence

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Portland Hearts of Pine 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

DLLWWDLDLL

Charlotte Independence 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WWLWDWDWWW

Head-to-head

Portland Hearts of Pine 1–1–1 Charlotte Independence (3 last)

Charlotte Independence3-2Portland Hearts of Pine
Portland Hearts of Pine4-2Charlotte Independence
Charlotte Independence1-1Portland Hearts of Pine

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Portland Hearts of Pine 1456 · Charlotte Independence 1574

	Portland Hearts of Pine	Draw	Charlotte Independence
Our model	26%	22%	51%
Market	26%	22%	51%

Estimated total (ours) 3.67 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 72%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Charlotte Independence (rating 1456 vs 1574).
Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Portland Hearts of Pine	Charlotte Independence
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 2.1	2.6 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1.1	1.6 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/20/50%	60/30/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 3.4	2.9 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.1	4.7 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

13.40

X4.00

21.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.85

2 (-0.75)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.85

Under 3.51.95

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.65

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 12:15

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.75 → 3.40▼	Pinn 3.60 ★
X	4.10 → 4.00▼	Pinn 4.15
2	1.65 → 1.75▲	Bet365 1.75

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.6% Pinnacle margin 9.3%

Time*	1	X	2
16:09 +18’	3.75	4.10	1.65
12:02 +13’	3.40▼	4.00▼	1.75▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:39 +28’	3.50	4.01	1.79
18:59 +149’	3.49▼	4.10▲	1.78▼
05:42 +34’	3.60▲	4.15▲	1.74▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 3.5

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Portland Hearts of Pine 1–1–1 Charlotte Independence

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/09/26 USA USL League One	Charlotte Independence	3-2 HT 1-0	Portland Hearts of Pine
30/08/25 USA USL League One	Portland Hearts of Pine	4-2 HT 1-1	Charlotte Independence
20/07/25 USA USL League One	Charlotte Independence	1-1 HT 1-0	Portland Hearts of Pine

Standings · USA USL League One

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Charlotte Independence	31	20	6	5	73	42	66
2	Union Omaha	31	19	4	8	54	34	61
3	Forward Madison FC	31	16	7	8	54	30	55
4	AC Boise	31	16	7	8	49	41	55
5	Spokane Velocity FC	31	16	6	9	50	43	54
6	One Knoxville SC	32	15	9	8	52	36	54
7	Chattanooga Red Wolves	31	14	4	13	50	44	46
8	Fort Wayne FC	31	12	9	10	47	40	45
9	FC Naples	31	13	4	14	38	46	43
10	Westchester SC	31	11	6	14	53	49	39
11	Sarasota Paradise	31	11	6	14	47	49	39
12	Corpus Christi FC	31	9	9	13	34	49	36
13	Antelope Valley Alta	31	8	9	14	38	46	33
14	Portland Hearts of Pine	31	7	10	14	44	57	31
15	Greenville Triumph SC	31	7	6	18	36	60	27
16	New York Cosmos	31	7	5	19	39	65	26
17	Richmond Kickers	31	7	5	19	37	64	26

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Portland Hearts of Pine	Charlotte Independence
AC Boise	1-2 L	1-1 D
Sarasota Paradise	1-4 L	3-2 W
Antelope Valley Alta	1-0 W	5-0 W
Westchester SC	2-1 W	5-4 W
Fort Wayne FC	1-4 L	1-1 D
Richmond Kickers	1-1 D	2-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 3 L	4 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Charlotte Independence (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Portland Hearts of Pine

DLLWWDLDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Forward Madison FC USA USL League One	0-2	0-2	1	3	L
10/10	AC Boise USA USL League One	0-0	1-2	2	3	L
04/10	Spokane Velocity FC USA USL League One	0-3	3-3	4	5	D
26/09	Sarasota Paradise USA USL League One	1-3	1-4	1	7	L
20/09	Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One	1-0	1-1	4	2	D
14/09	Antelope Valley Alta USA USL League One	0-0	1-0	8	8	W
07/09	Westchester SC USA USL League One	1-0	2-1	5	5	W
03/09	Charlotte Independence USA USL League One	0-1	2-3	1	4	L
30/08	Fort Wayne FC USA USL League One	0-2	1-4	5	6	L
23/08	Richmond Kickers USA USL League One	1-0	1-1	3	4	D

Charlotte Independence

WWLWDWDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Greenville Triumph SC USA USL League One	1-0	3-0	4	5	W
11/10	New York Cosmos USA USL League One	3-0	3-0	6	2	W
04/10	Sarasota Paradise USA USL League One	1-1	3-2	6	8	W
26/09	Fort Wayne FC USA USL League One	0-0	1-1	5	4	D
20/09	Richmond Kickers USA USL League One	2-1	2-1	8	8	W
17/09	AC Boise USA USL League One	0-0	1-1	4	3	D
13/09	Westchester SC USA USL League One	4-2	5-4	4	7	W
06/09	Union Omaha USA USL League One	0-1	0-2	3	5	L
03/09	Portland Hearts of Pine USA USL League One	1-0	3-2	5	4	W
29/08	Antelope Valley Alta USA USL League One	4-0	5-0	3	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Portland Hearts of Pine vs Charlotte Independence?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Charlotte Independence win (51%). Probabilities: Portland Hearts of Pine 26%, draw 22%, Charlotte Independence 51%.

How many goals are expected in Portland Hearts of Pine vs Charlotte Independence?

The model expects 3.67 goals (Portland Hearts of Pine 1.52 · Charlotte Independence 2.15), with a 51% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Portland Hearts of Pine vs Charlotte Independence?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.