Football · Iceland Premier League · 17/08, 21:15
Prediction: Fram Reykjavik vs Stjarnan
Team pages: Fram Reykjavik · Stjarnan
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.12Total
Fram Reykjavik2.32
Stjarnan1.8
1X2
Fram Reykjavik
Draw
Stjarnan
Markets
Under 4.5 goals 61%
Both teams to score 62%
Most likely score
2-1
Recent form · 10 last
Fram Reykjavik
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Stjarnan
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Fram Reykjavik
2–2–2
Stjarnan
(6 last)
- Stjarnan0-1Fram Reykjavik
- Fram Reykjavik2-3Stjarnan
- Fram Reykjavik1-1Stjarnan
- Fram Reykjavik1-1Stjarnan
- Stjarnan2-0Fram Reykjavik
- Fram Reykjavik2-1Stjarnan
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Fram Reykjavik 1539 · Stjarnan 1515
| Fram Reykjavik | Draw | Stjarnan | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 49% | 21% | 30% |
| Market | 48% | 23% | 29% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.12 goals · Bet365 line 4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 79%model estimate
Match keys
- High corners: 15.4 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Fram Reykjavik | Stjarnan | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.4 / 2.1 | 1.6 / 1.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.6 / 1 | 0.6 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/20/20% | 10/70/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.4 / 7.1 | 3.1 / 8.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.6 / 0.1 | 4.5 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Fram Reykjavik 2–2–2 Stjarnan
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/05/26 Iceland Premier League | Stjarnan | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Fram Reykjavik |
| 21/02/26 Iceland League Cup | Fram Reykjavik | 2-3 HT 1-1 | Stjarnan |
| 20/10/25 Iceland Premier League | Fram Reykjavik | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Stjarnan |
| 06/08/25 Iceland Premier League | Fram Reykjavik | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Stjarnan |
| 10/05/25 Iceland Premier League | Stjarnan | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Fram Reykjavik |
| 06/08/24 Iceland Premier League | Fram Reykjavik | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Stjarnan |
Standings · Iceland Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vikingur Reykjavik | 18 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 58 | 16 | 45 |
| 2 | KR Reykjavik | 18 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 64 | 39 | 39 |
| 3 | Fram Reykjavik | 18 | 11 | 4 | 3 | 45 | 34 | 37 |
| 4 | Breidablik | 18 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 36 | 30 | 29 |
| 5 | Valur Reykjavik | 18 | 7 | 1 | 10 | 31 | 36 | 22 |
| 6 | IA Akranes | 18 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 30 | 36 | 22 |
| 7 | Keflavik | 18 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 28 | 34 | 22 |
| 8 | Stjarnan | 18 | 6 | 3 | 9 | 33 | 43 | 21 |
| 9 | IBV Vestmannaeyjar | 18 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 29 | 38 | 17 |
| 10 | FH Hafnarfjordur | 18 | 3 | 8 | 7 | 22 | 32 | 17 |
| 11 | KA Akureyri | 18 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 24 | 36 | 15 |
| 12 | Thor Akureyri | 18 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 18 | 44 | 15 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Fram Reykjavik | Stjarnan |
|---|---|---|
| KR Reykjavik | 2-5 L | 0-5 L |
| FH Hafnarfjordur | 0-0 D | 2-2 D |
| Valur Reykjavik | 3-2 W | 3-2 W |
| Keflavik | 1-1 D | 1-0 W |
| IA Akranes | 2-0 W | 1-5 L |
| KA Akureyri | 4-3 W | 3-1 W |
| Record vs common | 3 W 2 D 1 L | 3 W 1 D 2 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Fram Reykjavik
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/08 | KR Reykjavik Iceland Premier League |
1-3 | 2-5 | 12 | 0 | L |
| 01/08 | IBV Vestmannaeyjar Iceland Premier League |
2-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 10 | W |
| 26/07 | FH Hafnarfjordur Iceland Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 11 | 1 | D |
| 18/07 | Valur Reykjavik Iceland Premier League |
3-1 | 3-2 | 10 | 4 | W |
| 12/07 | Thor Akureyri Iceland Premier League |
2-1 | 6-1 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 06/07 | Keflavik Iceland Premier League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 10 | 5 | D |
| 29/06 | IA Akranes Iceland Premier League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 21/06 | Vikingur Reykjavik Iceland Premier League |
0-2 | 0-5 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 15/06 | KA Akureyri Iceland Premier League |
3-2 | 4-3 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 29/05 | Breidablik Iceland Premier League |
3-1 | 4-3 | 2 | 4 | W |
Stjarnan
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08 | Keflavik Iceland Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 12 | 5 | W |
| 03/08 | Valur Reykjavik Iceland Premier League |
1-1 | 3-2 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 30/07 | FC Ilves UEFA Conference League Qualifying |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 26/07 | IA Akranes Iceland Premier League |
0-3 | 1-5 | 8 | 2 | L |
| 23/07 | FC Ilves UEFA Conference League Qualifying |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 19/07 | KR Reykjavik Iceland Premier League |
0-2 | 0-5 | 2 | 8 | L |
| 16/07 | Vikingur Gota UEFA Conference League Qualifying |
0-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 09/07 | Vikingur Gota UEFA Conference League Qualifying |
1-1 | 3-1 | 9 | 6 | W |
| 03/07 | FH Hafnarfjordur Iceland Premier League |
2-2 | 2-2 | 17 | 1 | D |
| 28/06 | KA Akureyri Iceland Premier League |
2-0 | 3-1 | 12 | 6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Fram Reykjavik vs Stjarnan?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Fram Reykjavik win (49%). Probabilities: Fram Reykjavik 49%, draw 22%, Stjarnan 29%.
How many goals are expected in Fram Reykjavik vs Stjarnan?
The model expects 4.12 goals (Fram Reykjavik 2.32 · Stjarnan 1.8), with a 51% chance of under 4 goals.
Will both teams score in Fram Reykjavik vs Stjarnan?
The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.