Football · Iceland Premier League · 23/08, 19:00
Prediction: KA Akureyri vs KR Reykjavik
Team pages: KA Akureyri · KR Reykjavik
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.6Total
KA Akureyri1.74
KR Reykjavik2.86
1X2
KA Akureyri
Draw
KR Reykjavik
Markets
Over 4.5 goals 50%
Both teams to score 63%
Most likely score
1-2
Recent form · 10 last
KA Akureyri
1-3-6 (W-D-L)
KR Reykjavik
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
KA Akureyri
2–1–3
KR Reykjavik
(6 last)
- KR Reykjavik5-3KA Akureyri
- KA Akureyri0-2KR Reykjavik
- KA Akureyri4-2KR Reykjavik
- KR Reykjavik1-2KA Akureyri
- KA Akureyri2-2KR Reykjavik
- KA Akureyri0-4KR Reykjavik
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · KA Akureyri 1429 · KR Reykjavik 1557
| KA Akureyri | Draw | KR Reykjavik | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 22% | 18% | 60% |
| Market | 20% | 20% | 59% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.6 goals · Bet365 line 4.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 83%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours KR Reykjavik (rating 1429 vs 1557).
- H2H favours KR Reykjavik: 3-1-2.
- High corners: 12.8 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 9.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| KA Akureyri | KR Reykjavik | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 2.5 | 3.4 / 2.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 1.1 | 1.6 / 1.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/30/40% | 50/20/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.7 / 4.7 | 3.4 / 8.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.4 / 0.2 | 4.4 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · KA Akureyri 2–1–3 KR Reykjavik
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/05/26 Iceland Premier League | KR Reykjavik | 5-3 HT 3-0 | KA Akureyri |
| 31/01/26 Iceland League Cup | KA Akureyri | 0-2 HT 0-0 | KR Reykjavik |
| 21/09/25 Iceland Premier League | KA Akureyri | 4-2 HT 1-2 | KR Reykjavik |
| 06/07/25 Iceland Premier League | KR Reykjavik | 1-2 HT 0-0 | KA Akureyri |
| 06/04/25 Iceland Premier League | KA Akureyri | 2-2 HT 2-2 | KR Reykjavik |
| 06/10/24 Iceland Premier League | KA Akureyri | 0-4 HT 0-2 | KR Reykjavik |
Standings · Iceland Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vikingur Reykjavik | 19 | 15 | 3 | 1 | 62 | 18 | 48 |
| 2 | KR Reykjavik | 19 | 12 | 4 | 3 | 67 | 42 | 40 |
| 3 | Fram Reykjavik | 19 | 12 | 4 | 3 | 48 | 35 | 40 |
| 4 | Breidablik | 19 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 39 | 33 | 30 |
| 5 | IA Akranes | 19 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 33 | 37 | 25 |
| 6 | Keflavik | 19 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 30 | 34 | 25 |
| 7 | Valur Reykjavik | 19 | 7 | 2 | 10 | 35 | 40 | 23 |
| 8 | Stjarnan | 19 | 6 | 3 | 10 | 34 | 46 | 21 |
| 9 | IBV Vestmannaeyjar | 19 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 30 | 41 | 17 |
| 10 | FH Hafnarfjordur | 19 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 24 | 36 | 17 |
| 11 | KA Akureyri | 19 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 28 | 40 | 16 |
| 12 | Thor Akureyri | 19 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 18 | 46 | 15 |
Common opponents 9 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | KA Akureyri | KR Reykjavik |
|---|---|---|
| FH Hafnarfjordur | 0-1 L | 1-1 D |
| Keflavik | 0-3 L | 2-3 L |
| Thor Akureyri | 0-0 D | 3-3 D |
| IBV Vestmannaeyjar | 2-2 D | 5-2 W |
| IA Akranes | 3-2 W | 5-3 W |
| Vikingur Reykjavik | 2-3 L | 0-2 L |
| Stjarnan | 1-3 L | 5-0 W |
| Breidablik | 1-3 L | 3-3 D |
| Fram Reykjavik | 3-4 L | 5-2 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 2 D 6 L | 4 W 3 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: KR Reykjavik (7 of 9 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
KA Akureyri
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/08 | Valur Reykjavik Iceland Premier League |
3-1 | 4-4 | 5 | 0 | D |
| 09/08 | FH Hafnarfjordur Iceland Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 9 | L |
| 05/08 | Keflavik Iceland Premier League |
0-3 | 0-3 | 4 | 8 | L |
| 27/07 | Thor Akureyri Iceland Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 19/07 | IBV Vestmannaeyjar Iceland Premier League |
1-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 8 | D |
| 12/07 | IA Akranes Iceland Premier League |
0-1 | 3-2 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 02/07 | Vikingur Reykjavik Iceland Premier League |
2-1 | 2-3 | 3 | 8 | L |
| 28/06 | Stjarnan Iceland Premier League |
0-2 | 1-3 | 8 | 6 | L |
| 21/06 | Breidablik Iceland Premier League |
0-0 | 1-3 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 15/06 | Fram Reykjavik Iceland Premier League |
2-3 | 3-4 | 6 | 6 | L |
KR Reykjavik
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08 | Breidablik Iceland Premier League |
1-3 | 3-3 | 14 | 5 | D |
| 10/08 | Fram Reykjavik Iceland Premier League |
3-1 | 5-2 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 05/08 | FH Hafnarfjordur Iceland Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 9 | 4 | D |
| 19/07 | Stjarnan Iceland Premier League |
2-0 | 5-0 | 8 | 8 | W |
| 12/07 | IBV Vestmannaeyjar Iceland Premier League |
2-1 | 5-2 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 02/07 | Thor Akureyri Iceland Premier League |
1-3 | 3-3 | 8 | 7 | D |
| 28/06 | Keflavik Iceland Premier League |
1-1 | 2-3 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 22/06 | IA Akranes Iceland Premier League |
2-2 | 5-3 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 16/06 | Vikingur Reykjavik Iceland Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 10 | 5 | L |
| 31/05 | KA Akureyri Iceland Premier League |
3-0 | 5-3 | 11 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in KA Akureyri vs KR Reykjavik?
According to our model, the most likely result is an KR Reykjavik win (60%). Probabilities: KA Akureyri 21%, draw 19%, KR Reykjavik 60%.
How many goals are expected in KA Akureyri vs KR Reykjavik?
The model expects 4.6 goals (KA Akureyri 1.74 · KR Reykjavik 2.86), with a 50% chance of over 4.5 goals.
Will both teams score in KA Akureyri vs KR Reykjavik?
The model gives a 63% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.