Football · Iceland Premier League · 23/08, 21:15

Prediction: Vikingur Reykjavik vs Valur Reykjavik

Team pages: Vikingur Reykjavik · Valur Reykjavik

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.37Total

Vikingur Reykjavik3.06

Valur Reykjavik1.31

1X2

72% 15% 13%

Vikingur Reykjavik Draw Valur Reykjavik

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

3-1

Recent form · 10 last

Vikingur Reykjavik 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWWLWDDW

Valur Reykjavik 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LLDWLLLLWD

Head-to-head

Vikingur Reykjavik 4–1–1 Valur Reykjavik (6 last)

Valur Reykjavik1-5Vikingur Reykjavik
Vikingur Reykjavik2-0Valur Reykjavik
Vikingur Reykjavik1-2Valur Reykjavik
Valur Reykjavik1-1Vikingur Reykjavik
Valur Reykjavik2-3Vikingur Reykjavik
Vikingur Reykjavik3-2Valur Reykjavik

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Vikingur Reykjavik 1557 · Valur Reykjavik 1448

	Vikingur Reykjavik	Draw	Valur Reykjavik
Our model	72%	15%	13%
Market	72%	15%	13%

Estimated total (ours) 4.37 goals · Bet365 line 4 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 79%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Vikingur Reykjavik (rating 1557 vs 1448).
H2H favours Vikingur Reykjavik: 4-1-1.
High corners: 13.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Vikingur Reykjavik	Valur Reykjavik
Goals for / against (FT)	3.3 / 1.3	1.7 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	1.4 / 0.5	0.7 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/30/10%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	4.5 / 7.9	2.7 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.1 / 0.2	3.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.25

X6.00

27.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2)2.00

2 (+2)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 41.90

Under 41.90

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 4.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:22

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.25 → 1.25	Bet365 1.25
X	6.00 → 6.00	Bet365 6.00
2	7.00 → 7.00	Bet365 7.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11%

Time*	1	X	2
21:19 +2’	1.25	6.00	7.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Vikingur Reykjavik 4–1–1 Valur Reykjavik

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Date	Home	Score	Away
31/05/26 Iceland Premier League	Valur Reykjavik	1-5 HT 0-3	Vikingur Reykjavik
25/10/25 Iceland Premier League	Vikingur Reykjavik	2-0 HT 2-0	Valur Reykjavik
20/07/25 Iceland Premier League	Vikingur Reykjavik	1-2 HT 0-1	Valur Reykjavik
28/04/25 Iceland Premier League	Valur Reykjavik	1-1 HT 0-1	Vikingur Reykjavik
29/09/24 Iceland Premier League	Valur Reykjavik	2-3 HT 1-1	Vikingur Reykjavik
01/09/24 Iceland Premier League	Vikingur Reykjavik	3-2 HT 0-2	Valur Reykjavik

Standings · Iceland Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vikingur Reykjavik	19	15	3	1	62	18	48
2	KR Reykjavik	19	12	4	3	67	42	40
3	Fram Reykjavik	19	12	4	3	48	35	40
4	Breidablik	19	8	6	5	39	33	30
5	IA Akranes	19	7	4	8	33	37	25
6	Keflavik	19	7	4	8	30	34	25
7	Valur Reykjavik	19	7	2	10	35	40	23
8	Stjarnan	19	6	3	10	34	46	21
9	IBV Vestmannaeyjar	19	4	5	10	30	41	17
10	FH Hafnarfjordur	19	3	8	8	24	36	17
11	KA Akureyri	19	4	4	11	28	40	16
12	Thor Akureyri	19	4	3	12	18	46	15

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Vikingur Reykjavik	Valur Reykjavik
FH Hafnarfjordur	4-2 W	0-2 L
IBV Vestmannaeyjar	2-2 D	0-1 L
IA Akranes	2-2 D	0-1 L
Keflavik	5-1 W	1-1 D
Thor Akureyri	1-2 L	4-2 W
KA Akureyri	3-2 W	4-4 D
Breidablik	4-1 W	3-1 W
Fram Reykjavik	5-0 W	2-3 L
Record vs common	5 W 2 D 1 L	2 W 2 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Vikingur Reykjavik (7 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Vikingur Reykjavik

WWWWWLWDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	FH Hafnarfjordur Iceland Premier League	2-1	4-2	9	5	W
09/08	IBV Vestmannaeyjar Iceland Premier League	1-1	2-2	9	7	D
02/08	IA Akranes Iceland Premier League	1-1	2-2	5	4	D
24/07	Keflavik Iceland Premier League	2-0	5-1	12	3	W
18/07	Thor Akureyri Iceland Premier League	0-0	1-2	10	6	L
02/07	KA Akureyri Iceland Premier League	1-2	3-2	14	8	W
25/06	Breidablik Iceland Premier League	1-0	4-1	3	7	W
21/06	Fram Reykjavik Iceland Premier League	2-0	5-0	7	4	W
16/06	KR Reykjavik Iceland Premier League	1-0	2-0	3	5	W
31/05	Valur Reykjavik Iceland Premier League	3-0	5-1	7	4	W

Valur Reykjavik

LLDWLLLLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/08	KA Akureyri Iceland Premier League	1-3	4-4	9	0	D
09/08	Breidablik Iceland Premier League	1-0	3-1	9	4	W
03/08	Stjarnan Iceland Premier League	1-1	2-3	3	4	L
18/07	Fram Reykjavik Iceland Premier League	1-3	2-3	7	4	L
12/07	FH Hafnarfjordur Iceland Premier League	0-0	0-2	3	4	L
04/07	IBV Vestmannaeyjar Iceland Premier League	0-0	0-1	2	6	L
28/06	Thor Akureyri Iceland Premier League	2-0	4-2	3	4	W
21/06	Keflavik Iceland Premier League	1-0	1-1	12	2	D
16/06	IA Akranes Iceland Premier League	0-1	0-1	2	8	L
31/05	Vikingur Reykjavik Iceland Premier League	0-3	1-5	8	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Vikingur Reykjavik vs Valur Reykjavik?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Vikingur Reykjavik win (72%). Probabilities: Vikingur Reykjavik 72%, draw 15%, Valur Reykjavik 13%.

How many goals are expected in Vikingur Reykjavik vs Valur Reykjavik?

The model expects 4.37 goals (Vikingur Reykjavik 3.06 · Valur Reykjavik 1.31), with a 52% chance of over 4 goals.

Will both teams score in Vikingur Reykjavik vs Valur Reykjavik?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.