Football · Iceland Premier League · 23/08, 19:00
Prediction: Stjarnan vs Thor Akureyri
Team pages: Stjarnan · Thor Akureyri
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.79Total
Stjarnan2.51
Thor Akureyri1.28
1X2
Stjarnan
Draw
Thor Akureyri
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 59%
Most likely score
2-1
Recent form · 10 last
Stjarnan
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Thor Akureyri
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Stjarnan
2–2–2
Thor Akureyri
(6 last)
- Thor Akureyri1-3Stjarnan
- Thor Akureyri0-1Stjarnan
- Thor Akureyri5-1Stjarnan
- Thor Akureyri1-1Stjarnan
- Thor Akureyri2-1Stjarnan
- Thor Akureyri0-0Stjarnan
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Stjarnan 1513 · Thor Akureyri 1440
| Stjarnan | Draw | Thor Akureyri | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 63% | 19% | 17% |
| Market | 63% | 20% | 17% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.79 goals · Bet365 line 3.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 72%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Stjarnan (rating 1513 vs 1440).
- High corners: 12 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Stjarnan | Thor Akureyri | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 2.1 | 1.1 / 2.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 1.1 | 0.5 / 1.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/70/30% | 20/20/60% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.1 / 7.9 | 1.9 / 4.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.3 / 0.1 | 4.1 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Stjarnan 2–2–2 Thor Akureyri
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/05/26 Iceland Premier League | Thor Akureyri | 1-3 HT 1-0 | Stjarnan |
| 12/06/24 Iceland Cup | Thor Akureyri | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Stjarnan |
| 18/02/24 Iceland League Cup | Thor Akureyri | 5-1 HT 1-0 | Stjarnan |
| 19/02/22 Iceland League Cup | Thor Akureyri | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Stjarnan |
| 09/03/19 Iceland League Cup | Thor Akureyri | 2-1 HT 2-1 | Stjarnan |
| 25/06/18 Iceland Cup | Thor Akureyri | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Stjarnan |
Standings · Iceland Premier League
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vikingur Reykjavik | 19 | 15 | 3 | 1 | 62 | 18 | 48 |
| 2 | KR Reykjavik | 19 | 12 | 4 | 3 | 67 | 42 | 40 |
| 3 | Fram Reykjavik | 19 | 12 | 4 | 3 | 48 | 35 | 40 |
| 4 | Breidablik | 19 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 39 | 33 | 30 |
| 5 | IA Akranes | 19 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 33 | 37 | 25 |
| 6 | Keflavik | 19 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 30 | 34 | 25 |
| 7 | Valur Reykjavik | 19 | 7 | 2 | 10 | 35 | 40 | 23 |
| 8 | Stjarnan | 19 | 6 | 3 | 10 | 34 | 46 | 21 |
| 9 | IBV Vestmannaeyjar | 19 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 30 | 41 | 17 |
| 10 | FH Hafnarfjordur | 19 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 24 | 36 | 17 |
| 11 | KA Akureyri | 19 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 28 | 40 | 16 |
| 12 | Thor Akureyri | 19 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 18 | 46 | 15 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Stjarnan | Thor Akureyri |
|---|---|---|
| Fram Reykjavik | 1-3 L | 1-6 L |
| Keflavik | 1-0 W | 0-2 L |
| Valur Reykjavik | 3-2 W | 2-4 L |
| IA Akranes | 1-5 L | 0-2 L |
| KR Reykjavik | 0-5 L | 3-3 D |
| FH Hafnarfjordur | 2-2 D | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 3 L | 0 W 2 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Stjarnan (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Stjarnan
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/08 | Fram Reykjavik Iceland Premier League |
1-2 | 1-3 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 09/08 | Keflavik Iceland Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 12 | 5 | W |
| 03/08 | Valur Reykjavik Iceland Premier League |
1-1 | 3-2 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 30/07 | FC Ilves UEFA Conference League Qualifying |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 26/07 | IA Akranes Iceland Premier League |
0-3 | 1-5 | 8 | 2 | L |
| 23/07 | FC Ilves UEFA Conference League Qualifying |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 19/07 | KR Reykjavik Iceland Premier League |
0-2 | 0-5 | 2 | 8 | L |
| 16/07 | Vikingur Gota UEFA Conference League Qualifying |
0-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 09/07 | Vikingur Gota UEFA Conference League Qualifying |
1-1 | 3-1 | 9 | 6 | W |
| 03/07 | FH Hafnarfjordur Iceland Premier League |
2-2 | 2-2 | 17 | 1 | D |
Thor Akureyri
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Keflavik Iceland Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 09/08 | IA Akranes Iceland Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 10 | 6 | L |
| 04/08 | Breidablik Iceland Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 27/07 | KA Akureyri Iceland Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 5 | D |
| 18/07 | Vikingur Reykjavik Iceland Premier League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 12/07 | Fram Reykjavik Iceland Premier League |
1-2 | 1-6 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 02/07 | KR Reykjavik Iceland Premier League |
3-1 | 3-3 | 3 | 7 | D |
| 28/06 | Valur Reykjavik Iceland Premier League |
0-2 | 2-4 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 21/06 | FH Hafnarfjordur Iceland Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 5 | D |
| 14/06 | IBV Vestmannaeyjar Iceland Premier League |
0-3 | 1-4 | 10 | 2 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Stjarnan vs Thor Akureyri?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Stjarnan win (63%). Probabilities: Stjarnan 63%, draw 20%, Thor Akureyri 17%.
How many goals are expected in Stjarnan vs Thor Akureyri?
The model expects 3.79 goals (Stjarnan 2.51 · Thor Akureyri 1.28), with a 50% chance of over 3.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Stjarnan vs Thor Akureyri?
The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.