Football · Kazakhstan Premier League · 05/09, 13:00
Prediction: FK Kaspyi Aktau vs Kairat Almaty
Team pages: FK Kaspyi Aktau · Kairat Almaty
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.85Total
FK Kaspyi Aktau0.95
Kairat Almaty1.89
1X2
FK Kaspyi Aktau
Draw
Kairat Almaty
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
FK Kaspyi Aktau
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Kairat Almaty
8-1-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
FK Kaspyi Aktau
0–2–4
Kairat Almaty
(6 last)
- Kairat Almaty2-0FK Kaspyi Aktau
- Kairat Almaty3-0FK Kaspyi Aktau
- FK Kaspyi Aktau1-1Kairat Almaty
- Kairat Almaty3-1FK Kaspyi Aktau
- FK Kaspyi Aktau2-2Kairat Almaty
- Kairat Almaty1-0FK Kaspyi Aktau
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · FK Kaspyi Aktau 1523 · Kairat Almaty 1553
| FK Kaspyi Aktau | Draw | Kairat Almaty | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 18% | 24% | 58% |
| Market | 18% | 23% | 59% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.85 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Kairat Almaty: 4-2-0.
- Cards-heavy: 10 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| FK Kaspyi Aktau | Kairat Almaty | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 1.4 | 2.7 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.6 | 1.5 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/30/20% | 60/40/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.5 / 4.1 | 2.5 / 4.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.1 / 0.4 | 4.9 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Kaspyi Aktau 0–2–4 Kairat Almaty
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/04/26 Kazakhstan Premier League | Kairat Almaty | 2-0 HT 0-0 | FK Kaspyi Aktau |
| 12/04/25 Kazakhstan Cup | Kairat Almaty | 3-0 HT 2-0 | FK Kaspyi Aktau |
| 01/10/23 Kazakhstan Premier League | FK Kaspyi Aktau | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Kairat Almaty |
| 14/03/23 Kazakhstan Premier League | Kairat Almaty | 3-1 HT 2-1 | FK Kaspyi Aktau |
| 27/08/22 Kazakhstan Premier League | FK Kaspyi Aktau | 2-2 HT 0-2 | Kairat Almaty |
| 09/04/22 Kazakhstan Premier League | Kairat Almaty | 1-0 HT 1-0 | FK Kaspyi Aktau |
Standings · Kazakhstan Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ordabasy | 23 | 17 | 4 | 2 | 46 | 16 | 55 |
| 2 | Kairat Almaty | 22 | 15 | 6 | 1 | 44 | 15 | 51 |
| 3 | FC Astana | 22 | 12 | 6 | 4 | 37 | 24 | 42 |
| 4 | Okzhetpes Kokshetau | 23 | 11 | 6 | 6 | 35 | 31 | 39 |
| 5 | FK Aktobe | 23 | 10 | 5 | 8 | 33 | 28 | 35 |
| 6 | FC Elimai Semey | 22 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 31 | 28 | 32 |
| 7 | FK Ulytau | 23 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 21 | 24 | 31 |
| 8 | FK Zhenys | 22 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 22 | 24 | 29 |
| 9 | Tobol Kostanay | 23 | 8 | 4 | 11 | 26 | 31 | 28 |
| 10 | FK Kaspyi Aktau | 23 | 7 | 5 | 11 | 25 | 31 | 26 |
| 11 | FK Kyzylzhar | 23 | 6 | 5 | 12 | 24 | 35 | 23 |
| 12 | FK Atyrau | 22 | 3 | 11 | 8 | 17 | 24 | 20 |
| 13 | Irtysh Pavlodar | 22 | 4 | 8 | 10 | 22 | 31 | 20 |
| 14 | Kaisar Kyzylorda | 23 | 3 | 11 | 9 | 20 | 30 | 20 |
| 15 | FC Altai Semey | 23 | 4 | 7 | 12 | 20 | 34 | 19 |
| 16 | Zhetysu | 23 | 4 | 7 | 12 | 24 | 41 | 19 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | FK Kaspyi Aktau | Kairat Almaty |
|---|---|---|
| FC Elimai Semey | 2-2 D | 2-0 W |
| FK Ulytau | 1-1 D | 3-1 W |
| Ordabasy | 3-2 W | 2-1 W |
| FK Atyrau | 2-1 W | 3-1 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 2 D 0 L | 4 W 0 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Kairat Almaty (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
FK Kaspyi Aktau
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/08 | Tobol Kostanay Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 16/08 | FC Elimai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League |
2-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 7 | D |
| 08/08 | FK Ulytau Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 01/08 | Irtysh Pavlodar Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 2-3 | 1 | 9 | L |
| 26/07 | FK Zhenys Kazakhstan Premier League |
2-1 | 3-2 | 4 | 10 | W |
| 18/07 | Kaisar Kyzylorda Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 9 | D |
| 11/07 | Ordabasy Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-1 | 3-2 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 05/07 | FK Atyrau Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 27/06 | FK Atyrau Kazakhstan Premier League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 20/06 | Ordabasy Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-2 | 0-2 | 5 | 2 | L |
Kairat Almaty
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08 | FC Elimai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 10 | W |
| 15/08 | FK Ulytau Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 3-1 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 26/07 | Ordabasy Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 18/07 | FK Atyrau Kazakhstan Premier League |
3-0 | 3-1 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 02/07 | Okzhetpes Kokshetau Kazakhstan Premier League |
3-0 | 5-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 27/06 | Okzhetpes Kokshetau Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-1 | 3-1 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 21/06 | FK Kyzylzhar Kazakhstan Premier League |
2-2 | 4-2 | 3 | 11 | W |
| 17/06 | FK Kyzylzhar Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 13/06 | FK Atyrau Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 10 | 3 | D |
| 28/05 | Ordabasy Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 5 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in FK Kaspyi Aktau vs Kairat Almaty?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Kairat Almaty win (59%). Probabilities: FK Kaspyi Aktau 18%, draw 24%, Kairat Almaty 59%.
How many goals are expected in FK Kaspyi Aktau vs Kairat Almaty?
The model expects 2.85 goals (FK Kaspyi Aktau 0.95 · Kairat Almaty 1.89), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in FK Kaspyi Aktau vs Kairat Almaty?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.