Football · Kazakhstan Premier League · 12/09, 16:00
Prediction: Ordabasy vs FC Astana
Team pages: Ordabasy · FC Astana
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.86Total
Ordabasy1.71
FC Astana1.15
1X2
Ordabasy
Draw
FC Astana
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Ordabasy
7-0-3 (W-D-L)
FC Astana
7-2-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Ordabasy
2–1–3
FC Astana
(6 last)
- FC Astana1-1Ordabasy
- Ordabasy1-0FC Astana
- FC Astana2-1Ordabasy
- Ordabasy2-4FC Astana
- FC Astana0-1Ordabasy
- Ordabasy1-2FC Astana
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ordabasy 1572 · FC Astana 1569
| Ordabasy | Draw | FC Astana | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 49% | 26% | 25% |
| Market | 50% | 26% | 25% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.86 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours FC Astana: 3-1-2.
- High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Ordabasy | FC Astana | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.1 / 0.9 | 2.2 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.3 | 1.2 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 70/20/10% | 70/20/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.2 / 5 | 2.5 / 5.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.5 / 0.1 | 4.4 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Ordabasy 2–1–3 FC Astana
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/04/26 Kazakhstan Premier League | FC Astana | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Ordabasy |
| 13/07/25 Kazakhstan Premier League | Ordabasy | 1-0 HT 0-0 | FC Astana |
| 05/04/25 Kazakhstan Premier League | FC Astana | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Ordabasy |
| 22/09/24 Kazakhstan Premier League | Ordabasy | 2-4 HT 2-2 | FC Astana |
| 16/06/24 Kazakhstan Premier League | FC Astana | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Ordabasy |
| 24/09/23 Kazakhstan Premier League | Ordabasy | 1-2 HT 0-1 | FC Astana |
Standings · Kazakhstan Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ordabasy | 25 | 18 | 4 | 3 | 48 | 18 | 58 |
| 2 | Kairat Almaty | 24 | 17 | 6 | 1 | 50 | 15 | 57 |
| 3 | FC Astana | 24 | 13 | 6 | 5 | 41 | 25 | 45 |
| 4 | Okzhetpes Kokshetau | 24 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 37 | 32 | 42 |
| 5 | FK Aktobe | 25 | 12 | 5 | 8 | 36 | 29 | 41 |
| 6 | FC Elimai Semey | 24 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 33 | 33 | 35 |
| 7 | FK Zhenys | 25 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 25 | 29 | 32 |
| 8 | Tobol Kostanay | 24 | 9 | 4 | 11 | 29 | 32 | 31 |
| 9 | FK Ulytau | 24 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 22 | 27 | 31 |
| 10 | FK Kaspyi Aktau | 25 | 7 | 5 | 13 | 26 | 36 | 26 |
| 11 | FK Atyrau | 24 | 4 | 11 | 9 | 18 | 25 | 23 |
| 12 | Kaisar Kyzylorda | 25 | 4 | 11 | 10 | 21 | 32 | 23 |
| 13 | FK Kyzylzhar | 25 | 6 | 5 | 14 | 25 | 39 | 23 |
| 14 | FC Altai Semey | 24 | 5 | 7 | 12 | 22 | 34 | 22 |
| 15 | Zhetysu | 25 | 5 | 7 | 13 | 26 | 43 | 22 |
| 16 | Irtysh Pavlodar | 23 | 4 | 8 | 11 | 22 | 32 | 20 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Ordabasy | FC Astana |
|---|---|---|
| Okzhetpes Kokshetau | 1-2 L | 2-1 W |
| FK Kyzylzhar | 3-0 W | 1-1 D |
| FC Altai Semey | 3-1 W | 4-1 W |
| FC Elimai Semey | 3-1 W | 4-0 W |
| FK Ulytau | 1-0 W | 2-0 W |
| Record vs common | 4 W 0 D 1 L | 4 W 1 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: FC Astana (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ordabasy
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09 | Okzhetpes Kokshetau Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 7 | 7 | L |
| 29/08 | FK Kyzylzhar Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 15/08 | FC Altai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League |
2-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 9 | W |
| 08/08 | Zhetysu Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 4-0 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 02/08 | Tobol Kostanay Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 26/07 | Kairat Almaty Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 19/07 | FC Elimai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League |
2-1 | 3-1 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 11/07 | FK Kaspyi Aktau Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-1 | 2-3 | 9 | 3 | L |
| 05/07 | FK Ulytau Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 28/06 | FK Ulytau Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 1 | W |
FC Astana
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09 | FC Elimai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League |
2-0 | 4-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 30/08 | FK Atyrau Kazakhstan Premier League |
2-0 | 3-2 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 16/08 | FK Kyzylzhar Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 3 | D |
| 09/08 | Okzhetpes Kokshetau Kazakhstan Premier League |
2-1 | 2-1 | 9 | 4 | W |
| 02/08 | FK Ulytau Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 26/07 | FC Altai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League |
2-1 | 4-1 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 12/07 | FK Aktobe Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-1 | 3-2 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 03/07 | FK Zhenys Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 4 | W |
| 28/06 | FK Zhenys Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 9 | D |
| 21/06 | FK Aktobe Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 6 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ordabasy vs FC Astana?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Ordabasy win (50%). Probabilities: Ordabasy 50%, draw 26%, FC Astana 25%.
How many goals are expected in Ordabasy vs FC Astana?
The model expects 2.86 goals (Ordabasy 1.71 · FC Astana 1.15), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Ordabasy vs FC Astana?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.