Football · Kazakhstan Premier League · 13/09, 16:00
Prediction: Kairat Almaty vs Tobol Kostanay
Team pages: Kairat Almaty · Tobol Kostanay
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.9Total
Kairat Almaty1.98
Tobol Kostanay0.92
1X2
Kairat Almaty
Draw
Tobol Kostanay
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1 11%
Recent form · 10 last
Kairat Almaty
10-0-0 (W-D-L)
Tobol Kostanay
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Kairat Almaty
2–3–1
Tobol Kostanay
(6 last)
- Tobol Kostanay1-1Kairat Almaty
- Kairat Almaty2-2Tobol Kostanay
- Tobol Kostanay1-3Kairat Almaty
- Kairat Almaty2-1Tobol Kostanay
- Kairat Almaty2-2Tobol Kostanay
- Tobol Kostanay1-0Kairat Almaty
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Kairat Almaty 1576 · Tobol Kostanay 1509
| Kairat Almaty | Draw | Tobol Kostanay | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 61% | 23% | 16% |
| Market | 61% | 22% | 16% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.9 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Kairat Almaty (rating 1576 vs 1509).
- H2H favours Kairat Almaty: 2-3-1.
- Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Kairat Almaty | Tobol Kostanay | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 3.1 / 0.6 | 1.6 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.6 / 0.3 | 0.8 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 70/30/0% | 40/50/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.5 / 4.2 | 2.3 / 4.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.6 / 0.2 | 4.2 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Kairat Almaty 2–3–1 Tobol Kostanay
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/04/26 Kazakhstan Premier League | Tobol Kostanay | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Kairat Almaty |
| 28/02/26 Kazakhstan Super Cup | Kairat Almaty | 2-2 HT 2-1 | Tobol Kostanay |
| 26/07/25 Kazakhstan Premier League | Tobol Kostanay | 1-3 HT 0-1 | Kairat Almaty |
| 27/04/25 Kazakhstan Premier League | Kairat Almaty | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Tobol Kostanay |
| 25/08/24 Kazakhstan Premier League | Kairat Almaty | 2-2 HT 1-0 | Tobol Kostanay |
| 15/06/24 Kazakhstan Premier League | Tobol Kostanay | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Kairat Almaty |
Standings · Kazakhstan Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kairat Almaty | 24 | 17 | 6 | 1 | 50 | 15 | 57 |
| 2 | Ordabasy | 24 | 17 | 4 | 3 | 47 | 18 | 55 |
| 3 | FC Astana | 23 | 13 | 6 | 4 | 41 | 24 | 45 |
| 4 | Okzhetpes Kokshetau | 24 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 37 | 32 | 42 |
| 5 | FK Aktobe | 24 | 11 | 5 | 8 | 34 | 28 | 38 |
| 6 | FC Elimai Semey | 23 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 31 | 32 | 32 |
| 7 | Tobol Kostanay | 24 | 9 | 4 | 11 | 29 | 32 | 31 |
| 8 | FK Ulytau | 24 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 22 | 27 | 31 |
| 9 | FK Zhenys | 24 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 22 | 28 | 29 |
| 10 | FK Kaspyi Aktau | 24 | 7 | 5 | 12 | 25 | 34 | 26 |
| 11 | FK Atyrau | 23 | 4 | 11 | 8 | 18 | 24 | 23 |
| 12 | FK Kyzylzhar | 24 | 6 | 5 | 13 | 24 | 36 | 23 |
| 13 | FC Altai Semey | 24 | 5 | 7 | 12 | 22 | 34 | 22 |
| 14 | Zhetysu | 24 | 5 | 7 | 12 | 25 | 41 | 22 |
| 15 | Kaisar Kyzylorda | 24 | 3 | 11 | 10 | 20 | 32 | 20 |
| 16 | Irtysh Pavlodar | 23 | 4 | 8 | 11 | 22 | 32 | 20 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Kairat Almaty | Tobol Kostanay |
|---|---|---|
| FK Kaspyi Aktau | 3-0 W | 0-1 L |
| FK Ulytau | 3-1 W | 3-1 W |
| Ordabasy | 2-1 W | 0-2 L |
| FK Atyrau | 3-1 W | 1-0 W |
| Okzhetpes Kokshetau | 5-0 W | 3-1 W |
| FK Kyzylzhar | 4-2 W | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 6 W 0 D 0 L | 3 W 1 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Kairat Almaty (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Kairat Almaty
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/09 | FK Zhenys Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 05/09 | FK Kaspyi Aktau Kazakhstan Premier League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 31/08 | FC Elimai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 10 | W |
| 15/08 | FK Ulytau Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 3-1 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 26/07 | Ordabasy Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 18/07 | FK Atyrau Kazakhstan Premier League |
3-0 | 3-1 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 02/07 | Okzhetpes Kokshetau Kazakhstan Premier League |
3-0 | 5-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 27/06 | Okzhetpes Kokshetau Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-1 | 3-1 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 21/06 | FK Kyzylzhar Kazakhstan Premier League |
2-2 | 4-2 | 3 | 11 | W |
| 17/06 | FK Kyzylzhar Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
Tobol Kostanay
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09 | FK Ulytau Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-1 | 3-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 30/08 | FK Kaspyi Aktau Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 25/08 | Kaisar Kyzylorda Kazakhstan Premier League |
2-1 | 3-2 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 16/08 | Irtysh Pavlodar Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 8 | W |
| 02/08 | Ordabasy Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 26/07 | FK Atyrau Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 18/07 | FK Kyzylzhar Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 12/07 | Okzhetpes Kokshetau Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 3-1 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 04/07 | FC Altai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 28/06 | FC Altai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Kairat Almaty vs Tobol Kostanay?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Kairat Almaty win (61%). Probabilities: Kairat Almaty 61%, draw 23%, Tobol Kostanay 16%.
How many goals are expected in Kairat Almaty vs Tobol Kostanay?
The model expects 2.9 goals (Kairat Almaty 1.98 · Tobol Kostanay 0.92), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Kairat Almaty vs Tobol Kostanay?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.