Football · Kazakhstan Premier League · 13/09, 13:00
Prediction: Irtysh Pavlodar vs Okzhetpes Kokshetau
Team pages: Irtysh Pavlodar · Okzhetpes Kokshetau
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.9Total
Irtysh Pavlodar1.56
Okzhetpes Kokshetau1.34
1X2
Irtysh Pavlodar
Draw
Okzhetpes Kokshetau
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Irtysh Pavlodar
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Okzhetpes Kokshetau
5-0-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Irtysh Pavlodar
3–3
Okzhetpes Kokshetau
(6 last)
- Okzhetpes Kokshetau2-1Irtysh Pavlodar
- Irtysh Pavlodar1-0Okzhetpes Kokshetau
- Okzhetpes Kokshetau1-0Irtysh Pavlodar
- Irtysh Pavlodar2-1Okzhetpes Kokshetau
- Okzhetpes Kokshetau1-0Irtysh Pavlodar
- Okzhetpes Kokshetau1-2Irtysh Pavlodar
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Irtysh Pavlodar 1466 · Okzhetpes Kokshetau 1521
| Irtysh Pavlodar | Draw | Okzhetpes Kokshetau | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 27% | 32% |
| Market | 42% | 26% | 32% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.9 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Okzhetpes Kokshetau (rating 1466 vs 1521).
- Cards-heavy: 10.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Irtysh Pavlodar | Okzhetpes Kokshetau | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.9 / 1.3 | 1.7 / 1.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.5 | 0.7 / 1.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/60/30% | 30/20/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 4.4 | 1.7 / 3.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.5 / 0.4 | 4.9 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Irtysh Pavlodar 3–0–3 Okzhetpes Kokshetau
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/04/26 Kazakhstan Premier League | Okzhetpes Kokshetau | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Irtysh Pavlodar |
| 15/03/24 Kazakhstan Cup | Irtysh Pavlodar | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Okzhetpes Kokshetau |
| 21/09/19 Kazakhstan Premier League | Okzhetpes Kokshetau | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Irtysh Pavlodar |
| 06/07/19 Kazakhstan Premier League | Irtysh Pavlodar | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Okzhetpes Kokshetau |
| 27/04/19 Kazakhstan Premier League | Okzhetpes Kokshetau | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Irtysh Pavlodar |
| 28/10/17 Kazakhstan Premier League | Okzhetpes Kokshetau | 1-2 HT 1-2 | Irtysh Pavlodar |
Standings · Kazakhstan Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kairat Almaty | 24 | 17 | 6 | 1 | 50 | 15 | 57 |
| 2 | Ordabasy | 24 | 17 | 4 | 3 | 47 | 18 | 55 |
| 3 | FC Astana | 23 | 13 | 6 | 4 | 41 | 24 | 45 |
| 4 | Okzhetpes Kokshetau | 24 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 37 | 32 | 42 |
| 5 | FK Aktobe | 24 | 11 | 5 | 8 | 34 | 28 | 38 |
| 6 | FC Elimai Semey | 23 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 31 | 32 | 32 |
| 7 | Tobol Kostanay | 24 | 9 | 4 | 11 | 29 | 32 | 31 |
| 8 | FK Ulytau | 24 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 22 | 27 | 31 |
| 9 | FK Zhenys | 24 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 22 | 28 | 29 |
| 10 | FK Kaspyi Aktau | 24 | 7 | 5 | 12 | 25 | 34 | 26 |
| 11 | FK Atyrau | 23 | 4 | 11 | 8 | 18 | 24 | 23 |
| 12 | FK Kyzylzhar | 24 | 6 | 5 | 13 | 24 | 36 | 23 |
| 13 | FC Altai Semey | 24 | 5 | 7 | 12 | 22 | 34 | 22 |
| 14 | Zhetysu | 24 | 5 | 7 | 12 | 25 | 41 | 22 |
| 15 | Kaisar Kyzylorda | 24 | 3 | 11 | 10 | 20 | 32 | 20 |
| 16 | Irtysh Pavlodar | 23 | 4 | 8 | 11 | 22 | 32 | 20 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Irtysh Pavlodar | Okzhetpes Kokshetau |
|---|---|---|
| Zhetysu | 0-1 L | 2-0 W |
| FK Aktobe | 2-1 W | 1-2 L |
| Tobol Kostanay | 0-2 L | 1-3 L |
| Kaisar Kyzylorda | 0-0 D | 3-2 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 2 L | 2 W 0 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Okzhetpes Kokshetau (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Irtysh Pavlodar
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09 | Zhetysu Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 8 | L |
| 30/08 | FK Aktobe Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 16/08 | Tobol Kostanay Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 8 | L |
| 09/08 | FC Elimai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 1-3 | 2 | 8 | L |
| 01/08 | FK Kaspyi Aktau Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-1 | 3-2 | 12 | 9 | W |
| 25/07 | FK Ulytau Kazakhstan Premier League |
2-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 11/07 | FK Zhenys Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 05/07 | Kaisar Kyzylorda Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 7 | D |
| 28/06 | Kaisar Kyzylorda Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 20/06 | FK Zhenys Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 5 | D |
Okzhetpes Kokshetau
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09 | Ordabasy Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 29/08 | Kaisar Kyzylorda Kazakhstan Premier League |
2-1 | 3-2 | 0 | 10 | W |
| 16/08 | FK Atyrau Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 09/08 | FC Astana Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-2 | 1-2 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 02/08 | FC Altai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 4-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 25/07 | FK Aktobe Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 8 | L |
| 18/07 | Zhetysu Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 12/07 | Tobol Kostanay Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-1 | 1-3 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 02/07 | Kairat Almaty Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-3 | 0-5 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 27/06 | Kairat Almaty Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-1 | 1-3 | 4 | 5 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Irtysh Pavlodar vs Okzhetpes Kokshetau?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Irtysh Pavlodar win (42%). Probabilities: Irtysh Pavlodar 42%, draw 27%, Okzhetpes Kokshetau 32%.
How many goals are expected in Irtysh Pavlodar vs Okzhetpes Kokshetau?
The model expects 2.9 goals (Irtysh Pavlodar 1.56 · Okzhetpes Kokshetau 1.34), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Irtysh Pavlodar vs Okzhetpes Kokshetau?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.