Football · Finland Kolmonen · 07/08, 18:00

Prediction: LTU vs ACF

Team pages: LTU · ACF

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.77Total

LTU1.63

ACF1.14

1X2

49% 24% 27%

LTU Draw ACF

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

LTU 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LLLLLWWLDW

ACF 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

DLDLLLDWLD

Head-to-head

LTU 0–1–0 ACF (1 last)

ACF0-0LTU

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · LTU 1481 · ACF 1450

	LTU	Draw	ACF
Our model	48%	27%	25%
Market	50%	22%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 2.77 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 5.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	LTU	ACF
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.4	0.9 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.5	0.2 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	25/25/50%	0/44/56%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 6.1	1.4 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.1 / 0	3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.80

X4.00

23.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.82

2 (+0.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.88

Under 3.251.93

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 05:59

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
05:57 +2’	1.80	4.00	3.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · LTU 0–1–0 ACF

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/04/26 Finland Kolmonen	ACF	0-0 HT 0-0	LTU

Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Western, Group 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	IFK Mariehamn II	13	10	1	2	36	13	31
2	EuPa	13	9	2	2	28	9	29
3	PIF Parainen	12	8	2	2	27	11	26
4	SalPa 2	13	6	3	4	19	16	21
5	VG-62	12	7	0	5	18	15	21
6	KaaPo	13	6	0	7	25	28	18
7	MaPS	13	5	2	6	21	23	17
8	Peimari United	13	3	7	3	20	18	16
9	LTU	13	4	2	7	12	18	14
10	ACF	13	1	5	7	10	26	8
11	PiPS	13	2	2	9	12	29	8
12	JyTy	13	2	2	9	14	36	8

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	LTU	ACF
PiPS	4-2 W	0-0 D
EuPa	0-0 D	0-1 L
IFK Mariehamn II	0-1 L	2-2 D
VG-62	2-1 W	0-3 L
Peimari United	1-0 W	2-2 D
JyTy	2-3 L	2-0 W
KaaPo	0-2 L	3-5 L
PIF Parainen	0-1 L	0-3 L
MaPS	1-3 L	0-3 L
SalPa 2	0-1 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 6 L	1 W 4 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: LTU (6 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

LTU

LLLLLWWLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/07	PiPS Finland Kolmonen	–	4-2	–	–	W
25/07	EuPa Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-0	4	1	D
04/07	IFK Mariehamn II Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-1	0	2	L
26/06	VG-62 Finland Kolmonen	2-0	2-1	9	3	W
13/06	Peimari United Finland Kolmonen	0-0	1-0	3	2	W
04/06	JyTy Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-3	14	3	L
29/05	KaaPo Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-2	8	3	L
22/05	PIF Parainen Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-1	4	1	L
14/05	MaPS Finland Kolmonen	0-1	1-3	7	2	L
09/05	SalPa 2 Finland Kolmonen	–	0-1	–	–	L

ACF

DLDLLLDWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	IFK Mariehamn II Finland Kolmonen	1-2	2-2	2	5	D
23/07	VG-62 Finland Kolmonen	0-2	0-3	2	2	L
25/06	JyTy Finland Kolmonen	0-0	2-0	4	4	W
17/06	Peimari United Finland Kolmonen	1-1	2-2	6	3	D
12/06	KaaPo Finland Kolmonen	0-2	3-5	3	1	L
05/06	PIF Parainen Finland Kolmonen	0-2	0-3	5	2	L
29/05	MaPS Finland Kolmonen	0-3	0-3	4	3	L
22/05	SalPa 2 Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
14/05	EuPa Finland Kolmonen	–	0-1	–	–	L
08/05	PiPS Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-0	3	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in LTU vs ACF?

According to our model, the most likely result is a LTU win (49%). Probabilities: LTU 49%, draw 24%, ACF 27%.

How many goals are expected in LTU vs ACF?

The model expects 2.77 goals (LTU 1.63 · ACF 1.14), with a 57% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in LTU vs ACF?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.