Football · Finland Kolmonen · 07/08, 17:30

Prediction: RiPS vs Gnistan/Ogeli

Team pages: RiPS · Gnistan/Ogeli

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.14Total

RiPS2.7

Gnistan/Ogeli1.44

1X2

64% 18% 19%

RiPS Draw Gnistan/Ogeli

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

RiPS 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

WWWWDLWWLW

Gnistan/Ogeli 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

DWLLDWLLLW

Head-to-head

RiPS 1–2 Gnistan/Ogeli (3 last)

Gnistan/Ogeli1-2RiPS
RiPS2-6Gnistan/Ogeli
Gnistan/Ogeli2-1RiPS

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · RiPS 1559 · Gnistan/Ogeli 1452

	RiPS	Draw	Gnistan/Ogeli
Our model	63%	18%	18%
Market	64%	17%	19%

Estimated total (ours) 4.14 goals · Bet365 line 4.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 78%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours RiPS (rating 1559 vs 1452).
H2H favours Gnistan/Ogeli: 2-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 5.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	RiPS	Gnistan/Ogeli
Goals for / against (FT)	2.4 / 1.4	1.5 / 2.6
Goals for / against (HT)	1.4 / 0.6	0.8 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	75/13/13%	38/13/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 4.5	1.6 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0.6	2.9 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.40

X5.25

24.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.90

2 (+1.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 4.251.95

Under 4.251.85

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.95

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 05:59

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.30 → 1.40▲	Bet365 1.40
X	5.50 → 5.25▼	Bet365 5.25
2	6.00 → 4.75▼	Bet365 4.75

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
04:47 +3’	1.30	5.50	6.00
05:57 +2’	1.40▲	5.25▼	4.75▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · RiPS 1–0–2 Gnistan/Ogeli

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/05/26 Finland Kolmonen	Gnistan/Ogeli	1-2 HT 0-1	RiPS
14/09/24 Finland Kolmonen	RiPS	2-6 HT 1-4	Gnistan/Ogeli
06/06/24 Finland Kolmonen	Gnistan/Ogeli	2-1 HT 2-0	RiPS

Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Southern, Group 3

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Futura	13	11	1	1	46	10	34
2	Sibbov	11	8	1	2	33	21	25
3	RiPS	12	7	1	4	26	22	22
4	FC Lahti II	11	6	3	2	18	12	21
5	JäPS/47	11	6	2	3	25	16	20
6	Atlantis II	13	5	3	5	27	25	18
7	TuPS	13	5	1	7	27	19	16
8	Gnistan/Ogeli	12	3	3	6	17	29	12
9	Ponnistus	12	2	2	8	14	35	8
10	ToTe/Tapio	12	1	3	8	15	37	6
11	TiPS U21	12	1	2	9	11	33	5

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	RiPS	Gnistan/Ogeli
Ponnistus	1-0 W	3-1 W
FC Futura	0-2 L	0-8 L
ToTe/Tapio	5-1 W	5-1 W
TiPS U21	4-1 W	2-0 W
Sibbov	2-3 L	1-3 L
Atlantis II	2-2 D	1-1 D
JäPS/47	4-2 W	1-3 L
FC Lahti II	3-2 W	0-2 L
TuPS	1-0 W	0-5 L
Record vs common	6 W 1 D 2 L	3 W 1 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: RiPS (6 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

RiPS

WWWWDLWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/07	Ponnistus Finland Kolmonen	1-0	1-0	3	4	W
26/07	FC Futura Finland Kolmonen	–	0-2	–	–	L
04/07	ToTe/Tapio Finland Kolmonen	2-1	5-1	10	1	W
17/06	TiPS U21 Finland Kolmonen	3-1	4-1	7	0	W
06/06	Sibbov Finland Kolmonen	1-1	2-3	3	7	L
28/05	Atlantis II Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-2	4	4	D
22/05	JäPS/47 Finland Kolmonen	1-2	4-2	4	3	W
16/05	FC Lahti II Finland Kolmonen	–	3-2	–	–	W
09/05	TuPS Finland Kolmonen	1-0	1-0	3	7	W
03/05	Gnistan/Ogeli Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-1	2	3	W

Gnistan/Ogeli

DWLLDWLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	TiPS U21 Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-0	5	0	W
22/07	JäPS/47 Finland Kolmonen	1-0	1-3	3	2	L
02/07	FC Lahti II Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-2	3	4	L
27/06	FC Futura Finland Kolmonen	–	0-8	–	–	L
12/06	Ponnistus Finland Kolmonen	–	3-1	–	–	W
07/06	Atlantis II Finland Kolmonen	0-1	1-1	7	5	D
30/05	Sibbov Finland Kolmonen	0-1	1-3	6	3	L
23/05	TuPS Finland Kolmonen	0-2	0-5	3	2	L
15/05	ToTe/Tapio Finland Kolmonen	2-1	5-1	–	–	W
08/05	MK United Finland Kolmonen	2-2	2-2	2	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in RiPS vs Gnistan/Ogeli?

According to our model, the most likely result is a RiPS win (64%). Probabilities: RiPS 64%, draw 18%, Gnistan/Ogeli 19%.

How many goals are expected in RiPS vs Gnistan/Ogeli?

The model expects 4.14 goals (RiPS 2.7 · Gnistan/Ogeli 1.44), with a 53% chance of under 4.25 goals.

Will both teams score in RiPS vs Gnistan/Ogeli?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.