Football · Finland Kolmonen · 07/08, 18:15

Prediction: ESPA vs NuPS

Team pages: ESPA · NuPS

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.51Total

ESPA2.18

NuPS1.33

1X2

57% 20% 23%

ESPA Draw NuPS

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

ESPA 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

WWDWWWLWWW

NuPS 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

WDDDDLWWWW

Head-to-head

ESPA 3–1–2 NuPS (6 last)

NuPS0-2ESPA
NuPS0-6ESPA
ESPA1-1NuPS
ESPA2-0NuPS
NuPS3-1ESPA
NuPS2-1ESPA

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · ESPA 1596 · NuPS 1550

	ESPA	Draw	NuPS
Our model	56%	22%	22%
Market	57%	19%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 3.51 goals · Bet365 line 3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours ESPA (rating 1596 vs 1550).
H2H favours ESPA: 3-1-2.
High corners: 12.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	ESPA	NuPS
Goals for / against (FT)	2.9 / 0.9	2.5 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 0.2	1 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	56/22/22%	38/50/13%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.8 / 7	2.9 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0	4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.57

X4.75

23.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.95

2 (+1)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.82

Under 3.51.98

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 06:00

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.57 → 1.57	Bet365 1.57
X	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75
2	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11%

Time*	1	X	2
05:55 +5’	1.57	4.75	3.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · ESPA 3–1–2 NuPS

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/05/26 Finland Kolmonen	NuPS	0-2 HT 0-0	ESPA
27/09/24 Finland Kolmonen	NuPS	0-6 HT 0-1	ESPA
28/06/24 Finland Kolmonen	ESPA	1-1 HT 1-1	NuPS
29/09/23 Finland Kolmonen	ESPA	2-0 HT 2-0	NuPS
02/07/23 Finland Kolmonen	NuPS	3-1 HT 0-1	ESPA
07/05/23 Finland Cup	NuPS	2-1 HT 0-0	ESPA

Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Southern, Group 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	EIF Academy	13	10	1	2	52	20	31
2	ESPA	13	10	1	2	33	11	31
3	LePa	14	8	2	4	29	24	26
4	NuPS	13	6	4	3	26	17	22
5	Poxyt	13	7	1	5	29	28	22
6	LoPa	14	6	1	7	22	23	19
7	Gilla FC	13	5	2	6	28	28	17
8	MPS	13	3	3	7	12	22	12
9	PPJ/Ruoholahti	13	3	3	7	18	34	12
10	EPS Reservi	13	3	3	7	20	39	12
11	GrIFK Reservi	13	3	2	8	21	28	11
12	HooGee	13	3	1	9	21	37	10

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	ESPA	NuPS
PPJ/Ruoholahti	1-0 W	6-1 W
LoPa	2-0 W	2-2 D
LePa	2-0 W	3-3 D
GrIFK Reservi	2-4 L	3-0 W
HooGee	3-0 W	4-3 W
EPS Reservi	4-2 W	1-1 D
Poxyt	4-1 W	1-2 L
EIF Academy	1-1 D	2-0 W
MPS	4-0 W	2-0 W
Gilla FC	6-1 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	8 W 1 D 1 L	5 W 4 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: ESPA (7 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

ESPA

WWDWWWLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/07	PPJ/Ruoholahti Finland Kolmonen	0-0	1-0	2	4	W
27/07	LoPa Finland Kolmonen	0-0	2-0	5	2	W
03/07	LePa Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-0	6	3	W
28/06	GrIFK Reservi Finland Kolmonen	0-1	2-4	9	5	L
12/06	HooGee Finland Kolmonen	3-0	3-0	6	3	W
05/06	EPS Reservi Finland Kolmonen	–	4-2	–	–	W
29/05	Poxyt Finland Kolmonen	2-0	4-1	11	5	W
21/05	EIF Academy Finland Kolmonen	0-1	1-1	10	6	D
15/05	MPS Finland Kolmonen	4-0	4-0	11	1	W
08/05	Gilla FC Finland Kolmonen	2-0	6-1	3	5	W

NuPS

WDDDDLWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/07	HooGee Finland Kolmonen	1-1	4-3	4	4	W
03/07	GrIFK Reservi Finland Kolmonen	–	3-0	–	–	W
25/06	PPJ/Ruoholahti Finland Kolmonen	3-1	6-1	7	1	W
17/06	MPS Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-0	4	4	W
10/06	Poxyt Finland Kolmonen	0-0	1-2	7	1	L
07/06	Gilla FC Finland Kolmonen	1-1	1-1	9	5	D
31/05	EPS Reservi Finland Kolmonen	0-1	1-1	5	7	D
22/05	LoPa Finland Kolmonen	1-1	2-2	4	7	D
13/05	LePa Finland Kolmonen	–	3-3	–	–	D
07/05	EIF Academy Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-0	6	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in ESPA vs NuPS?

According to our model, the most likely result is a ESPA win (57%). Probabilities: ESPA 57%, draw 20%, NuPS 23%.

How many goals are expected in ESPA vs NuPS?

The model expects 3.51 goals (ESPA 2.18 · NuPS 1.33), with a 50% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in ESPA vs NuPS?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.