Football · Finland Kolmonen · 07/08, 18:00

Prediction: FC Kontu vs MPS/Atletico Malmi

Team pages: FC Kontu · MPS/Atletico Malmi

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.94Total

FC Kontu1.57

MPS/Atletico Malmi2.37

1X2

25% 20% 55%

FC Kontu Draw MPS/Atletico Malmi

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

1-2

Recent form · 10 last

FC Kontu 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

DLLDLWLWLW

MPS/Atletico Malmi 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WWWLLWWLWD

Head-to-head

FC Kontu 2–1–1 MPS/Atletico Malmi (4 last)

MPS/Atletico Malmi4-2FC Kontu
MPS/Atletico Malmi0-3FC Kontu
FC Kontu2-2MPS/Atletico Malmi
MPS/Atletico Malmi1-3FC Kontu

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Kontu 1456 · MPS/Atletico Malmi 1532

	FC Kontu	Draw	MPS/Atletico Malmi
Our model	24%	21%	55%
Market	25%	20%	55%

Estimated total (ours) 3.94 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 72%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours MPS/Atletico Malmi (rating 1456 vs 1532).
H2H favours FC Kontu: 2-1-1.
High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Kontu	MPS/Atletico Malmi
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 2.5	2.1 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1.3	0.9 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	38/25/38%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 5.1	3.3 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.1	4.9 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.60

X4.50

21.61

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)2.00

2 (-0.75)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.85

Under 3.751.95

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 4.1

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 17:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
X	4.50 → 4.75▲	Bet365 4.75
2	1.65 → 1.65	Bet365 1.65

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 10.2%

Time*	1	X	2
10:05 +2’	3.50	4.50	1.65
12:05 +11’	3.60▲	4.50	1.61▼
17:09 +4’	3.50▼	4.75▲	1.65▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Kontu 2–1–1 MPS/Atletico Malmi

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/04/26 Finland Kolmonen	MPS/Atletico Malmi	4-2 HT 3-0	FC Kontu
14/06/24 Finland Kolmonen	MPS/Atletico Malmi	0-3 HT 0-1	FC Kontu
10/06/23 Finland Kolmonen	FC Kontu	2-2 HT 0-1	MPS/Atletico Malmi
15/08/20 Finland Kolmonen	MPS/Atletico Malmi	1-3 HT 0-1	FC Kontu

Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Southern, Group 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	ToTe	12	9	1	2	32	12	28
2	MPS/Atletico Malmi	13	9	1	3	31	21	28
3	PPJ/Lauttasaari	13	7	4	2	46	20	25
4	Valtti	12	7	0	5	25	24	21
5	LPS Helsinki	11	6	1	4	30	26	19
6	VJS Vantaa II	13	5	2	6	43	25	17
7	Tips Vantaa	12	5	1	6	27	31	16
8	HPS II	13	4	3	6	32	34	15
9	Atlantis FC/PM	13	4	2	7	28	50	14
10	Toolon Taisto	12	2	7	3	23	25	13
11	FC Kontu	13	3	4	6	24	33	13
12	PPS	13	1	0	12	12	52	3

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Kontu	MPS/Atletico Malmi
HPS II	3-2 W	2-1 W
Atlantis FC/PM	2-3 L	6-1 W
PPS	4-3 W	2-1 W
LPS Helsinki	3-4 L	3-1 W
VJS Vantaa II	1-0 W	2-1 W
Tips Vantaa	0-2 L	3-2 W
Toolon Taisto	3-3 D	2-2 D
ToTe	2-7 L	0-3 L
Valtti	0-1 L	1-2 L
PPJ/Lauttasaari	0-0 D	0-4 L
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 5 L	6 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: MPS/Atletico Malmi (4 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Kontu

DLLDLWLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/07	HPS II Finland Kolmonen	1-0	3-2	1	2	W
23/07	Atlantis FC/PM Finland Kolmonen	1-1	2-3	1	4	L
02/07	PPS Finland Kolmonen	1-1	4-3	14	4	W
26/06	LPS Helsinki Finland Kolmonen	0-3	3-4	5	1	L
12/06	VJS Vantaa II Finland Kolmonen	1-0	1-0	3	5	W
05/06	Tips Vantaa Finland Kolmonen	0-2	0-2	8	7	L
28/05	Toolon Taisto Finland Kolmonen	0-2	3-3	6	4	D
21/05	ToTe Finland Kolmonen	1-4	2-7	2	2	L
15/05	Valtti Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-1	7	5	L
07/05	PPJ/Lauttasaari Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-0	4	2	D

MPS/Atletico Malmi

WWWLLWWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Toolon Taisto Finland Kolmonen	0-0	2-2	10	3	D
24/07	PPS Finland Kolmonen	2-0	2-1	9	3	W
26/06	Valtti Finland Kolmonen	1-2	1-2	7	11	L
16/06	HPS II Finland Kolmonen	2-0	2-1	1	6	W
12/06	Atlantis FC/PM Finland Kolmonen	–	6-1	–	–	W
05/06	ToTe Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-3	9	2	L
29/05	PPJ/Lauttasaari Finland Kolmonen	0-2	0-4	0	5	L
22/05	Tips Vantaa Finland Kolmonen	2-0	3-2	6	2	W
16/05	LPS Helsinki Finland Kolmonen	–	3-1	–	–	W
10/05	VJS Vantaa II Finland Kolmonen	0-1	2-1	1	7	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Kontu vs MPS/Atletico Malmi?

According to our model, the most likely result is an MPS/Atletico Malmi win (55%). Probabilities: FC Kontu 25%, draw 20%, MPS/Atletico Malmi 55%.

How many goals are expected in FC Kontu vs MPS/Atletico Malmi?

The model expects 3.94 goals (FC Kontu 1.57 · MPS/Atletico Malmi 2.37), with a 51% chance of over 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Kontu vs MPS/Atletico Malmi?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.